DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: ARDL SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı; Türkiye’de demokrasi ve bazı makroekonomik göstergelerin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY), üzerindeki etkilerini 1991-2013 dönemi için ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanarak incelemektir. Çalışmada kullanılan makroekonomik göstergeler kişi başına reel gelir, cari açık oranı, faiz oranları, gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYİH) deflatörü, işgücü verimliliği ve kişi başına vergi miktarıdır. Çalışmada ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı kullanılarak elde edilen bulgular şöyle sıralanabilir: ı) Kişi başına reel gelirdeki bir artış DYY’leri hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde pozitif etkilemektedir; ıı) Demokrasi, işgücü verimliliği ve kişi başına vergi miktarındaki bir artış hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde DYY’leri negatif etkilemektedir; ııı) Cari açık oranının DYY’ler üzerindeki kısa dönemli etkisi istatistiki olarak anlamlı değilken, uzun dönemde cari açık oranında bir artış DYY’leri negatif etkilemektedir; ıv) Faiz artışı kısa dönemde DYY’leri pozitif etkilemekteyken, faiz oranının DYY’ler üzerindeki uzun dönemli etkisi istatistiki olarak anlamlı değildir; v) Son olarak enflasyonun DYY’ler üzerindeki etkisi hem uzun dönemde hem de kısa dönemde istatistiki olarak anlamlı değildir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar,Demokrasi,İşgücü Verimliliği,ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: AN ARDL BOUND TESTING APPROACH

Öz

The main purpose of this study is to examine the effects of democracy and some macroeconomic indicators on foreign direct investment in Turkey for period 1991-2013 by using  ARDL bound testing approach. The macroeconomic indicators which used in this study are: real income per capita, interest rates, current account deficit ratio, gross domestic product (GDP) deflator, labor productivity and the amount of tax per capita. This study obtained the following findings using ARDL bound testing approach: ı) An increase in the real income per capita  has positive effects on FDI in both long and short term; ıı) An increase in the democracy, labor productivity and amount of tax per capita have negative effects on FDI in both long and short term; ııı) The short-term impact of the current account deficit ratio on FDI is not statistically significant whereas an increase in the current account deficit ratio has negative effects on FDI in long-term; ıv) An increase in the interest has positive effects on FDI in short-term whereas the long-term impact of interest rate on FDI is not statistically significant; v) Finally, The impact of inflation on FDI is not statistically significant in both long and short term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Direct Investment,Democracy,Labor Productivity,ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Kaynakça

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