FİNANSAL DIŞA AÇIKLIĞIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, McKinnon-Shaw’ın, sermaye hareketlerinin dışa açık hale getirilmesinin ekonomik büyümeyi arttıracağı savı, Türkiye örneğinde Pesaran vd. (2001) tarafından geliştirilen sınır testi yöntemi yardımıyla,1992-2011 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak kurulan iki model yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Uzun dönem analizi sonuçlarına göre, her iki modelde de finansal dışa açıklığın büyüme üzerindeki etkisi istatistiki olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur. Ticari dışa açıklığın büyüme üzerindeki etkisi ise, beklentilerimizle uyumlu olarak pozitif ve anlamlı çıkmıştır. Kısa dönem analizinde ise, her iki modelde de hata düzeltme teriminin katsayısı negatif ve anlamlıdır. Yani modellerdeki kısa dönemde meydana gelen sapmalar uzun dönemde dengesine yakınsamaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Dışa Açıklık, Ticari Dışa Açıklık, Sınır Testi, Türkiye

FİNANSAL DIŞA AÇIKLIĞIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

In this study, McKinnon-Shaw’s thesis suggesting that capital movement liberalisation would increase economic growth was analysed with the bounds testing approach developed by Peseran et al. (2001) and with two models established by using annual data of the period 1992–2011 in Turkey sample. According to the results of long term analysis, effect of financial openness on growth in both models was statistically insignificant. However, the effect of trade openness on growth is positive and significant in line with our expectations. In short-term analysis, on the other hand, coefficient of the error correction term in both models was negative and significant. Therefore, deviations in the models happening in short-term converge to equilibrium in the long-term

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Kaynakça

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