İhracatta Ürün Çeşitliliği ve Türkiye’nin Büyüme Performansı

Öz

Teorik ve ampirik literatürde ihracat hacmindeki artışların iktisadi büyüme performansını artıracağı yönünde genel bir kanaat mevcut olmasına rağmen hangi tür ihracat yapısının iktisadi büyümeyi nasıl uyaracağı konusu ideal bir inceleme konusu olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Son dönem dış ticaret teorileri, ihracat çeşitliliğinin olası fiyat ve pazar dalgalanmalarına karşı bir sigorta mekanizması oluşturarak ihracat gelirlerinde istikrarın sağlanmasında ve dolayısıyla makroekonomik dalgalanmaların azaltılmasında önemli bir rol üstlendiğini öne sürmektedir. Bu kapsamda mevcut çalışmada ihracatta ürün çeşitliliğinin hesaplanmasına yönelik olarak geliştirilen üç farklı indeks (Herfindahl-Hirschman, Gini-Hirschman ve Theil Entropy indeksleri) kullanılarak 2002q1-2019q4 döneminde Türkiye’de ihracat çeşitliliğinin iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Spesifik olarak iktisadi büyüme, sabit sermaye oluşumu, iş gücü ve ihracat çeşitliliği arasındaki dinamik ilişkiler, gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi (bounds test) yaklaşımına dayanan eşbütünleşme (cointegration) analizi aracılığıyla tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, incelenen dönem itibarıyla Türkiye’de ihracat çeşitliliğinin iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki pozitif etkisini teyit etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracat Çeşitliliği
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• HHI
• Gini İndeksi
• Theil İndeksi

Export Product Diversification and Growth Performance of Turkey

Öz

Although there is a general opinion in the theoretical and empirical literature that increases in export volume will increase economic growth performance, the issue of which type of export structure will stimulate economic growth appears to be an ideal subject of examination. The recent foreign trade theories assert that export diversification may play an important role in ensuring the stability of export revenues and thereby reducing macroeconomic fluctuations by constituting an insurance mechanism against possible price and market fluctuations. In this context, in this study, we examine the effect of export diversification on economic growth in Turkey over the period 2002q1-2019q4 by employing three different indices developed for the calculation of the export product diversification (Herfindahl-Hirschman, Gini-Hirschman and Theil Entropy indexes). Specifically, we analyze the dynamic relationships between economic growth, fixed capital formation, labor force and export diversification through the cointegration analysis based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The empirical evidence confirms the positive effect of export product diversification.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Export Diversification
• Growth
• HHI
• Gini Index
• Theil Index

Kaynakça

1. Acaravcı, A., & Kargı, G. (2015). Türkiye’de ihracatın çeşitlendirilmesi ve ekonomik büyüme. Uluslararası Ekonomi Ve Yenilik Dergisi. 1(1), 1-16.
2. Aditya, A., & Acharyya, R. (2013). Export diversification, composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), 959-992.
3. Agosin, M. R. (2007). Export diversification and growth in emerging economies (Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile Working Paper No. 233). Universidad de Chile web sitesinden erişildi: http://www.econ.uchile.cl/uploads/publicacion/7fec2632-b4c3-45a3-ab78-0970614f5bab.pdf.
4. Akar, G., & Ay, A. (2018). İhracat çeşitlendirmesi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Journal of Social and Humanities Sciences Research, 5(21), 809-820.
5. Al-Marhubi, F. (2000). Export diversification and growth: An empirical investigation. Applied Economics Letters, 7(9), 559-562.
6. Alper, S. (2014). İhracat performansı ile uluslararası rekabet gücünün yapısal belirleyicileri arasındaki ilişki: OECD ve BRIIC ülkeleri uygulaması. Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Ankara.
7. Altun, M., & Benli, M. (2019). Türkiye’de ihracat çeşitliliği-ihracat performansı ilişkisi: Bir eşbütünleşme analizi. Proceedings of the International Congress on Social Sciences – Humanities and Education, İstanbul, 5, 296-305.
8. Arip, M. A., Yee, L. S., & Karim, B. A. (2010). Export diversification and economic growth in Malaysia (MPRA Paper No: 20588). Munich Personal Repec Archive web sitesinden erişildi:https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20588/1/MPRA_

9. Awokuse, T. O. (2006). Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: Evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs. Applied Economics Letters, 38, 593-602.
10. Benli, M. (2018). Causal structure of export-productivity nexus in Turkey. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 16(1), 194-203.
11. Benli̇, M. (2020). Export diversification and economic growth: Evidence from emerging eonomies. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, pp. 285-297.
12. Bleaney, M., & Greenaway, D. (2001). The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Development Economics, 65(2), 491-500.
13. Cadot, O., Carrère, C., & Strauss-Kahn, V. (2011). Export diversification: What's behind the hump? Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2), 590-605.
14. ClaverKouakou, P., & N’Zué, F. (2020). Has export diversification impacted economic growth in Cote d’Ivoire? Evidence from an econometric analysis. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 11(3), 1-12.
15. Çeviker, A., & Taş, İ. (2011). Türkiye’de ihracat çeşitlendirmesi ve büyüme ilişkisi. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 3(2), 1-10.
16. Dawe, D. (1996). A new look at the effects of export ınstability on investment and growth. World Development, 24(12), 1905-1914.
17. De Pineres A. G., & Ferrantino, M. J. (2000). Export dynamics and economic growth in Latin America: A comparative perspective. Ashgate Publishing Ltd: London
18. Değer, K. (2010). İhracatta ürün çeşitliliği ve ekonomik büyüme: Türkiye deneyimi (1980-2006). Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 259-287.
19. Duru, I. U., & Ehidiamhen P. O. (2018). Diversification on economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria, 1980-2016. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 21(7), 1-24.
20. Feenstra, R. C., & Kee, H. L. (2008). Export variety and country productivity: Estimating the monopolistic competition model with endogenous productivity. Journal of International Economics, 74(2), 500-518.
21. Ferreira, G., & Harrison, W. (2012). From coffee beans to microchips: Export diversification and economic growth in Costa Rica. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 44(4), 517-531.
22. Forgha, N. G., Sama, M. C., & Atangana, E. M. (2014). The effects of export diversification on economic growth in Cameroon. International Invention Journal of Arts and Social Sciences, 1(3), 54-69.
23. Funke, M., & Ruhwedel, R. (2001). Export variety and export performance: Empirical evidence from East Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 12(4), 493-505.
24. Ghosh, A. R., & Ostry, J. (1994). Export instability and the external balance in developing countries. IMF Staff Papers, 41(2), 214-235.
25. Giri, R., & Quayyum S. N. ve Yin, R. (2019). Understanding Export Diversification: Key Drivers and Policy Implications (IMF Working Paper No. 19/105). International Monetary Fund web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/05/14/Understanding-Export-Diversification-Key-Drivers-and-Policy-Implications-46851
26. Gözgör, G., & Can, M. (2016). Effects of the product diversification of exports on income at different stages of economic development. Eurasian Business Review, 6(2), 215-235.
27. Haddad, M., Lim, J.J., Pancaro, C., & Saborowski, C. (2013). Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne Déconomique, 46(2), 765-790.
28. Hamed, K., Hadi, D., & Hossein, K. (2014). Export diversification and economic growth in some selected developing countries. African Journal of Business Management, 8(17), 700-704.
29. Harris, R., & Sollis, R. (2003). Applied Time Series Modeling and Forecasting. West Sussex: Wiley.
30. Herzer, D., & Nowak-Lehmann D., F. (2006). Export diversification, externalities and growth: Evidence for Chile. Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin, 12, 1-25.
31. Hesse, H. (2008). Export diversification and economic growth (World Bank Commission on Growth and Development Working Paper No. 21). World Bank Open Knowledge Repository web sitesinden erişildi: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28040
32. Hodey S. L., Oduru, A., & Senadza B. (2015). Export diversification and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Development, 17, 67-81.
33. Imbs, J., & Wacziarg, R. (2003). Stages of diversification. American Economic Review, 93(1), 63-86.
34. Javed, Z., & Munir, K. (2016). Impact of export composition on economic growth in South Asia (MPRA Paper No. 71519). Munich Personal RePEc Archive web sitesinden erişildi: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71519/1/MPRA_paper_71519.pdf
35. Lederman, D., & Maloney, W. F. (2003). Trade structure and growth (Wordl Bank Group Policy Research Working Paper No: 3025). World Bank Group eLibrary web sitesinden erişildi: https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/pdf/10.1596/1813-9450-3025.
36. Lotfi, B., & Karim, M. (2017). Export diversification and economic growth in Morocco: An econometric analysis. Applied Economics and Finance, 4(6), 27-3.
37. Majeed, M.T., Ahmad, E., & Khawaja, M.I. (2006). Determinants of exports in developing countries [with comments]. The Pakistan Development Review, 45(4),1265-1276.
38. Manga, M. (2019). Orta gelir tuzağı bağlamında ihracatta ürün çeşitliliği ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 9(1), 145-168.
39. Mclntyre, A., Li, M. X., Wang, K., & Yun, H. (2018). Economic benefits of export diversification in small states (IMF Working Papers No: 18/86). IMF web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/04/11.
40. Misztal, P. (2011). Export diversification and economic growth in European Union member states. Oeconomia, 10(2), 55-64.
41. Mudenda, C., Choga, I., & Chigamba, C. (2014). The role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(9), 705-712.
42. Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and ınvestment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
43. Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, S. (2005). Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for fiji in a cointegration framework. Economic Modelling, 22(3), 423-438.
44. Naude, W., & Rossouw, R. (2008). Export diversification and specialization in South Africa: Extent and impact. World Institute for Development Economic Research, 93, 1-36.
45. Nwosa, P. I., Tosin, F. O., & Ikechukwu, O. M. (2019). Export diversification and economic growth in Nigeria. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 8(2), 227-234.
46. Öztürk, N. (2003). Dış ticaret kuramında yeni yaklaşımlar. Öneri Dergisi, 5(19), 109-126.
47. Pesaran, H., & Shin, Y. (1998). An otoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Econometric Society Monographs, 31, 371-413.
48. Pesaran, H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
49. Seetanah, B., Sannassee, R. V., & Lamport, M. J. (2014). Export diversification and economic growth: The case of Mauritius. Challenges and Opportunities: Case Studies Presented by WTO Chair-Holders (pp. 11-23). Geneva: World Trade Organization.
50. Siddiqui, A. (2018). Export diversification and growth in pakistan: An empirical investigation from 1972 to 2015. Business and Economic Review, 10(1), 107-131.
51. Tegene, A. (1990). Commodity concentration and export earnings instability: The evidence from African Countries. The American Economist, 34(2), 55-59.
52. Theil, H. (1972). Statistical decomposition analysis: With applications in the social and administrative sciences. Amsterdam: North Holland Publishing Company.