Türkiye'de Enerji Talebi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz: Ham Petrol İthalat Talebinin Gelir ve Fiyat Esnekliklerinin Farklı Veri Frekansları İçin Tahmin Edilmesi

Yıl 2021, , 335 - 344, 30.07.2021

Muhammet Yunus Şişman , Özcan Öztürk

https://doi.org/10.51290/dpusbe.940651

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'deki ham petrol ithalat talebini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Ülke, çok sınırlı petrol üretimine sahip olmakla beraber büyüyen ekonomisini ithal edilen petrol arzına bağımlı olarak desteklemektedir. Çalışmamızda, Türkiye’nin ithal ham petrol talebi fiyat ve gelir esnekliklerini farklı veri frekansları için (aylık, çeyreklik, yıllık) hesaplarken veri sıklığının tahminler üzerindeki etkisini inceledik. Araştırmamızda, fiyat ve gelir değişikliklerinin ham petrol ithalat talebi üzerindeki kısa ve uzun vadeli etkilerini gösteren Oto Regresif Gecikmeli Dağıtılmış (ARDL) modelini kullandık. Elde edilen sonuçlar; i) veri sıklığının sıklığının tahmin sürecinde önemli bir rol oynadığını, aylık ve çeyreklik veri modelleri bulgularının uzun dönemde denge durumunda olmasına karşın yıllık veri modelinde dengenin bulunamadığı ii) aylık ve çeyreklik verilerin tahmin edilen fiyat ve gelir esneklikleri mikroekonomik teori ve literatürle uyumludur. Esnek olmayan fiyat esneklikleri tüketicilerin yüksek bağımlılık ve ham petrolün ikamesinin olmaması nedeniyle fiyat değişikliklerine daha az tepki verdiğini gösterirken gelir esnekliklerinin esnek olması, gelir düzeyi arttıkça ham petrol talebinin arttığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ham Petrol İthalat Esneklikleri, ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı, Türkiye, Veri Frekansı

An Empirical Analysis of Energy Demand in Turkey: Estimating Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil With Different Data Frequencies

Öz

The present study aims to examine crude oil import demand in Turkey. The country has quite limited oil production and is dependent on foreign supply to power its growing economy. We estimate the price and income elasticities of imported crude oil for Turkey exploiting three different data sets (i.e., monthly, quarterly, and annual) to test whether data frequency matters in estimation. We employ an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which shows both short-run and long-run effects of price and income changes on crude oil import demand. Results show that i) data frequency plays an important role in the estimation process as the findings of monthly and quarterly model show a long-run equilibrium while annual models do not and that ii) the estimated elasticities of monthly and quarterly data are in line with microeconomic theory and literature in that price elasticities are inelastic suggesting that consumers are less responsive to the price changes due to high dependency and lack of substitute for crude oil and that income elasticities are elastic suggesting the demand for crude oil increases as income level increases.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Crude Oil Demand Elasticities, ARDL Bounds Test Approach, Turkey, Data Frequency

Kaynakça

• Adıgüzel, U., Bayat, T., Kayhan, S., & Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2013). Oil prices and exchange rates in Brazil, India & Turkey: Time and frequency domain causality analysis. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(1), 49-73.
• Akcelik, F., & Öğünç, F. (2016). Pass-through of crude oil prices at different stages in Turkey. Central Bank Review, 16(1), 41-51.
• Akkoc, U., & Civcir, I. (2019). Dynamic linkages between strategic commodities and stock market in Turkey: Evidence from SVAR-DCC-GARCH model. Resources Policy, 62, 231-239.
• Altinay, G. (2007). Short-run and long-run elasticities of import demand for crude oil in Turkey. Energy Policy, 35(11), 5829-5835.
• Anoruo, E. (2011). Testing for linear and nonlinear causality between crude oil price changes and stock market returns. International Journal of Economic Sciences & Applied Research, 4(3), 75-92.
• Berument, H., & Taşçı, H. (2002). Inflationary effect of crude oil prices in Turkey. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 316(1-4), 568-580.
• Bildirici, M. E., & Badur, M. M. (2019). The effects of oil and gasoline prices on confidence and stock return of the energy companies for Turkey and the US. Energy, 173, 1234-1241.
• Bilgic, A., Yavuz, F., Damba, O. T., & Bilgin, O. C. (2019). Volatility transmission between prices of selected agricultural products with crude oil and exchanges rates in Ghana and Turkey. Ghanaian Journal of Economics, 7(1), 118-155.
• Çatik, A. N., & Karaçuka, M. (2012). Oil pass-through to domestic prices in Turkey: does the change in inflation regime matter? Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 25(2), 277-296.
• Doğrul, H. G., & Soytas, U. (2010). Relationship between oil prices, interest rate, and unemployment: Evidence from an emerging market. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1523-1528.
• Gokmenoglu, K., Azin, V., & Taspinar, N. (2015). The relationship between industrial production, GDP, inflation and oil price: the case of Turkey. Procedia Economics & Finance, 25, 497-503.
• Gorus, M. S., Ozgur, O., & Develi, A. (2019). The relationship between oil prices, oil imports and income level in Turkey: evidence from Fourier approximation. OPEC Energy Review, 43(3), 327-341.
• Gülay, E., & Pazarlıoğlu, M. V. (2016). The empirical role of real crude oil price and real exchange rate on economic growth: the case of turkey. Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 16(4), 627-639.
• Kavaz, İ. (2020). Estimating the Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand for Turkey. International Econometric Review, 12(2), 98-111.
• Kayalar, D. E., Küçüközmen, C. C., & Selcuk-Kestel, A. S. (2017). The impact of crude oil prices on financial market indicators: copula approach. Energy Economics, 61, 162-173.
• Ozturk, I., Feridun, M., & Kalyoncu, H. (2008). Do oil prices affect the USD/YTL exchange rate: Evidence from Turkey.
• Ozturk, I., & Arisoy, I. (2016). An estimation of crude oil import demand in Turkey: Evidence from time-varying parameters approach. Energy Policy, 99, 174-179.
• Polat, O. (2020). Time-varying propagations between oil market shocks and a stock market: Evidence from Turkey. Borsa Istanbul Review, 20(3), 236-243
• Sari, R., & Soytas, U. (2006). The relationship between stock returns, crude oil prices, interest rates, and output: evidence from a developing economy. The Empirical Economics Letters, 5(4), 205-220.
• Solak, A. O., & Beşkaya, A. (2013). Türkiye’nin Net Petrol Ithalatinin Fiyat Ve Gelir Esneklikleri: ARDL Modelleme Yaklaşimi ile Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 9(18), 19-29.
• Soytas, U., Sari, R., Hammoudeh, S., & Hacihasanoglu, E. (2009). World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37(12), 5557-5566.
• Toparlı, E. A., Çatık, A. N., & Balcılar, M. (2019). The impact of oil prices on the stock returns in Turkey: A TVP-VAR approach. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics & Its Applications, 535, 122392.
• Tursoy, T., & Faisal, F. (2018). The impact of gold and crude oil prices on stock market in Turkey: Empirical evidences from ARDL bounds test and combined cointegration. Resources Policy, 55, 49-54.
• Yaprakli, S., & Kaplan, F. (2015). Re-examining of the Turkish crude oil import demand with multi-structural breaks analysis in the long run period. International Journal of Energy Economics & Policy, 5(2), 402-407.