THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN LABOR PRODUCTIVITY AND EXPORT: EVIDENCE FROM TURKISH MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 53, 11 - 25, 31.07.2017

Numan Can Albayrak , Seymur Ağazade

Öz

This paper examines the relationship between export
and labor productivity by using time series method of forecasting and quarterly
data from 2005:Q1 to 2015:Q2 for Turkish Manufacturing Industry. Index of
production per person employed and index of production per hour worked were
used as labor productivity indicators. Before examining long and short run
relationship, Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests were
applied to determine time series characteristics of variables. According to the
results of these tests all variables were found to be stationary in their first
differences. Then, Engle-Granger cointegration approach was applied to
determine long run relationship between labor productivity and export. Results
of cointegration test support long run relationship among the variables.
Finally, error correction models were estimated and Granger causality tests
were implemented. Results of causality tests show a unidirectional relationship
from labor productivity to export. This finding supports predictions of
Posner’s (1961) technological gap theory and Vernon’s (1966) product life
cycles theory for the Turkish Manufacturing Sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exports, Labor Productivity, Engle-Granger, Error Correction Model, Granger Causality

EMEK VERİMLİLİĞİ VE İHRACAT İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRK İMALAT SANAYİ ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Bu
çalışmada, emek verimliliği ve ihracat ilişkisi Türk İmalat Sanayi örneğinde
incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla, 2005:Q1 ile 2015:Q2 arası döneme ait üçer aylık veri
ve zaman serisi yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Emek verimliliği çalışan kişi başına
üretim endeksi ve çalışan saat başına üretim endeksi ile ölçülmüştür. Analizde
öncelikle, Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller ve Phillips-Perron durağanlık testleri
uygulanmıştır. Durağanlık testleri sonucunda, bütün değişkenlerin birinci
farklarında durağan oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Ardından, Engle-Granger
eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmıştır. Emek verimliliği ve ihracat arasında uzun
dönem ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Eşbütünleşme analizi sonucunda, değişkenler
arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Son olarak,
hata düzeltme modeli dâhilinde Granger nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Bunun
sonucunda emek verimliliğinden ihracata doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi
bulunmuştur. Buna göre, Türk İmalat Sanayi’nde Posner’in (1961) teknolojik açık
teorisi ile Vernon’un (1966) ürün dönemleri teorilerinin verimlilik ve ihracat
ilişkisine yönelik öngörülerini destekleyici sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracat, Emek Verimliliği, Engle-Granger, Hata Düzeltme Modeli, Granger Nedensellik

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