OIL PRICES AND BANKING STOCKS NEXUS: EVIDENCE FROM AN OIL-DEPENDENT COUNTRY

Yıl 2019, Sayı: 59, 34 - 47, 31.01.2019

Beyza Mina Ordu Akkaya Ramazan Sarı

Öz

We investigate the
impact of oil prices on Borsa Istanbul banking index during 2004-2017 and for
the periods before and after the 2008 crisis. We especially examine banking
stock performances since any significant factor affecting financial
institutions, would probably have an impact on the whole economy due to the
contagion. Secondly, banking index is the leader index in Borsa Istanbul with
36% of market capitalization of Borsa Istanbul. Moreover, financial
institutions in Turkey experienced a significant M&A flow in the last
decade, which fosters the interrelationship between foreign and domestic
markets. Our sample period is between 2004 and 2016 and we employ
Granger-causality and generalized impulse responses. Results reveal that
financial and commodity markets are highly integrated and oil is a significant
commodity for Turkish market. Furthermore, banking equities seem to benefit
from oil price increases and hence one should include banking stocks into their
portfolios, when commodity prices are surging.

Anahtar Kelimeler

emerging market, banking index, oil price, stock market

PETROL FİYATLARI VE BANKACILIK HİSSE SENETLERİ BAĞINTISI: PETROL BAĞIMLI BİR ÜLKEDEN KANIT

Öz

Çalışmamız petrol
fiyatlarının Borsa İstanbul banka endeksi üzerindeki etkisini 2004-2017 dönemi
için incelerken, kriz öncesi ve sonrası farklılıkları da sınamaktadır. Banka
endeksine özellikle bakmamızın nedenlerinden biri finansal kurumları etkileyen
önemli faktörlerin bulaşıcılık nedeniyle kuvvetle muhtemel ekonomiyi de
etkileyecekleridir. İkinci olarak, banka endeksi Borsa İstanbul’un %36’sını
oluşturan ana endekstir. Son olarak Türkiye’deki bankacılık sektörü son
senelerde ciddi bir birleşme ve satın alma dalgasına konu olmuştur. Bu nedenle
de yurtdışı ve yerel piyasalar arasındaki bağıntı da geçen seneler içerisinde
daha da çok artmıştır. Örneklem kapsamımız 2004 ve 2016 seneleri arasında iken,
yöntemimiz de Granger-nedensellik ve genelleştirilmiş dürtü yanıtını
içermektedir. Sonuçlarımız finansal ve emtia piyasalarının entegre olduğunu ve
petrolün Türkiye ekonomisi için önemli bir emtia olduğunu göstermektedir. Öte
yandan, banka hisse senetleri özellikle 2008-2013 döneminde petrol
fiyatlarındaki artıştan pozitif anlamda etkilenmişlerdir. Bu nedenle petrol
fiyatları yükselirken, yatrımcılar portföyüne banka hisse senetlerini eklemeyi
düşünebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

gelişen piyasa, banka endeksi, petrol fiyatları, hisse senedi piyasası

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