TÜRKİYE'DE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ:UYGULAMALI BİR ANALİZ (1960-2004)

Yıl 2007, Sayı: 19, - , 20.06.2015

Aynur Ekinci Ekrem Gül

Öz

This paper utilizes cointegration and the vector error-correction model(VECM) to explore the causal relationship between economic growth and growth rate of domestic savings for Turkey over the period of 1960-2004. Specifically, three analyses were undertaken. First, the time series properties of economic growth and domestic savings were ascertained with the help of the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root procedure. Second, the long-run relationship between economic growth and growth rate of domectic savings was examined in the context of the Johansen and Juselius (1990) framework. Finally, a Granger-causality test was undertaken to determine the direction of causality between economic growth and growth rate of domestic savings. The results indicate one order of integration(I(1)) for each of the series. The results of the cointegration tests suggest that there is a lon-run relationship between economic growth and growth rate of savings. The results from Granger-causality tests indicate that contrary to the conventional wisdom, economic growth causes growth rate of savings for Turkey

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic growth, Domestic saving rates, Cointegration, VECM

TÜRKİYE'DE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ:UYGULAMALI BİR ANALİZ (1960-2004)

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'nin 1960-2004 döneminde yurtiçi tasarruf oranları ile ekonomik büyüme oranları arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi açıklamak için vektör hata düzeltme modeli(VECM) ve kointegrasyon tekniklerinden yararlanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada üç tür analiz yapılmıştır. Birincisi, ekonomik büyüme ve yurtiçi tasarrufların zaman serilerinin durağanlığının ADF birim kök testleriyle araştırılmasıdır. İkincisi, ekonomik büyüme ile yurtiçi tasarruf oranları arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisi Johansen ve Juselius kointegrasyon yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. Son olarak, ekonomik büyüme ile yurtiçi tasarruf oranları arasındaki ilişkiyi belirlemek için Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Kointegrasron test sonuçlarına göre iki seri arasındaki ilişki I(1)'dir. Bu durum bize ekonomik büyüme ile tasarruf oranları arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğunu gösterir. Granger nedensellik test sonuçları ise, geleneksel görüşün aksine, Türkiye'de ekonomik büyümeden yurtiçi tasarruf oranlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik gösterir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme, Yurtiçi Tasarruf Oranları, Kointegrasyon, VECM

Kaynakça

• Agrawal, Pradeep(2001),” The relationship between savings and Growth: cointegration and causality evidence from Asia”, Applied Economics,33: 499- 513.
• Akeike, H.(1973), ' Information Theory and Extansion of the Maksimum likelihood Principle' in B.N. Petrov and F.Craki (eds.), 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory, Akademiai Kiado, Budapest.
• Annad,R,A.Chhibber ve S. Wjinbergen(1990), External Balance and Growth in Turkey, den T.Arıcanlı ve D.Rodrik(der).(1990) The Political Economy of Turkey, Macmillan,Londra.
• Anoruo, Emmanuel ve Ahmad Yusuf(2001), “ Causal Relationship between Domestic Savings and Economic Growth: Evidence From Seven African Countries, African Development Bank, Published by Blackwell Publishers.
• Attanasio,O.,L.Picci ve A.Scorcu(2000),Saving Growth and investment, Review of Economics and Statistics ,82(2);182-211.
• Saltz,Ira.S(1999), “ An Examination of the Causal Relationship Between Savings and Growth in the Third World”, Journal of Economics and Finance, Volume23,Number 1;90-98.
• Lewis,W.Arthur(1955), Theory of Economic Growth London: Alten and Unwin,ltd.
• Lewis,W.Arthur(1954),” Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies at Labor” , Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies 22:139-191.
• Bacha, E.L(1990), “ A Thre-Gap Model of Foreign Transfers and the GDP Growth Rate in Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol.32;279-296
• Bosworth,B.P.(1993), “ Saving and Invesment in Global Economy”, Brokings, Washington DC.
• Celasun,M. Ve A.Tansel(1993), Distributional effects and saving investment behaviour in a liberalized economy: The case of Turkey,METU Studies in Development ,Cilt:20,No.3;269-299.
• Carroll,C. ve D.Weil(1994), “ Saving Behavior in Ten Developing Countries”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol.40, North- Holland, Amsterdam.
• Carroll,C.D. ve L.H. Summers,(1991)Consumption growth parallels income growth: some new evidence, in National Saving and Economic Performance, B.Douglas Bernheim and John B.Shoven,(eds.) Universty of Chicago Pres,Chicago;305-343.
• Carroll,C.D.(1992), Buffer stock saving and the permanent income hypothesis, nimeo, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,Washington,D.C.
• Charemza,W.W. ve Deadman D.F.(1993), New Direction In Econometric Practice, Edward Elgar Publishing Limitted, England.
• Conway,P.(1990), The Record on Private Investment in Turkey, Arıkanlı ve Rodrik(1990) içinde.
• Deaton,A.S(1991), Saving and Liqudity constraints, Econometrica,55;1121- 1142.
• Darnell,A.C. (1994), A Dictionary of Econometrics, Printed and Bound In Great Britain By Hartnolls Limited, Bodmin-Cornwall, England.
• DeGregorio,J.(1992), “ Economic Growth in Latin America”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol.39;59-84.
• Dickey, D:A: ve W.A. Fuller(1981), 'Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series', Econometrica,Vol.49;1057-1072.
• Dinler,Zeynel(2004), İktisada Giriş,Ekin Yayınevi.
• Domer,E.D.(1946), “ Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment”, Econometrica,Vol.14;137-147.
• Edwards,S.(1996), Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis, Journal of Development Economics,51;5- 44.
• Engle,R.F. ve C.W.J. Granger(1987), ' Cointegration and Error Correction: Estimation and Testing', Econometrica, Vol.55;251-176.
• Fry,M.(1980), Saving, invesment, growth ,and the cost of financial repression, World Development 8(49;17-27.
• Fry,M.J.(1995), Money and Banking in Economic Development.2nd Ed. The Johns Hopkins University Pres, Baltimore,MD.
• Gavin,M,R. Hausmann ve E.Talvi(1997), “ Saving Behavior in Latin America:Overview and Policy Issues”, in R.Hausmann ve Reisen R.(eds.), Promoting Savings in Latin America, OECD and Inter-America Development Bank,Paris.
• Giovannini,A.(1983) The interest elasticity of saving in development countries. The existing evidence, World Development,11(7(;601-607
• Giovannini, A.(1985) Saving and the real interest rate in LDCs, Journal of Development Economics 18,197-217.
• Granger,C.W.J.(1983), ' Co-Integrated Variables and Error-Correcting Models', Working Paper,83-13. University of California, San Diego.
• Harrod,R.(1936), “ An Essay in Dynamic Theory”, Economic Journal,Vol.49;14-33
• Jappelli,T. Ve M.Pagana(1996), “The Determinant of Saving: Lessons from Italy”, paper presented at the Inter-America Development Bank Conference on Determinants of Domestic Saving in Latin America, Bogota,Colombia.
• Johansen,S.(1991), ' Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussion Vector Autoregressive Models', Econometrica, Vol.59;1551-1580.
• Johansen, S. Ve K. Juselius (1990), ' Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applicationsto the Demand for Money', Oxford Bulletion of Economics and Statistics,Vol.52;169-210.
• Lahiri, A.(1989), Dynamics of Asian savings: the role of growth and age structure,IMF Staff Papers,36(1);228-260.
• Loyanza,N.K.Schimdt-Hebbel ve S.Serven(2000), What drives private savings around the world? Review of Economics and Statistics,82(2);165-181.
• Lucas,R.E.(1988), On the mechanics of economic Development, Journal of Monetary Economics,22(1);3-42.
• Maddison,A.(1992), “ A long Run Perspectiveon Saving”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol.94;181-196.
• Miller, S.(1991), ' Monetary Dynamics: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling', Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol.23;139-154.
• Miller,S. Ve F.S.Russek(1990), ' Cointegration and Error Correction Models: The Temporal Causality between Goverment Taxes and Spending', Southern Economic Journal; 221-229.
• Modigliani,F.(1970), The life cyle hypothesis of saving and intercountry differences in the saving ratio, Induction, Growth and Trade: Essays in Honour of Sir Roy Harrod, W.A.Eltis,M.F.Scott and J.N.Wolfe,(eds) Clarendon,Oxford;197-225.
• Mason,P.R.,T.Bayoumi ve H.Samiei(1998), International Evidence of the determinants of private saving, The World Bank Economic Review,Cilt 12,No.3;483-501.
• Otoni,I ve D.Villanueva(1990), “long term Growth in Developing Countries and Its Determinants: An Emprical Analysis”, World Development,Vol.18,769- 783.
• Romer,P.(1986), Increasing returns and long-run growth, Journal of Political Economy,89;1-25.
• Schmidt-Hebbel,KL.Serven ve A.Solimano(1996), Saving and investment: paradigms, puzzles,policies, World Bank Research Observer,11(1);87-117.
• Sinha,D ve T.Sinha(1998), “Cart Before the Horse? The Saving-Growth Nexus in Mexico”, Economic Letters, Vol.61;43-47
• Sinha,D.(1998),” The Role Of Saving In Pakistan's Economic Growth”, The Journal of Applied Business Research,Vol.15,Number.1;79-85.
• Stern,N(1991),” The Determinants of Growth”, Economic Journal, Vol.101;122-133.
• Solow,R.M.(1956), “a Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.70;65-94.
• Tobin,J.(1957), Life-cycle saving and balence growth, in W.Fellner,Ten economic studies in the tradition of I.Fisher, John Wiley and Son,New York.
• Türel, O.(1993), 1980-1992 Döneminde Türkiye'de Finansal Yapı ve Politikaları:Önder vd.(1993), Tarih Vakfı Yurt Yayınları,İstanbul.
• World Bank(1993), The East Asian Miracle: EconomicGrowth and Public Policy Oxford Universty Pres, New York.
• Yentürk,N. (1998), Ajustement et accumulation: La Turquie,Canadian Journal of Development Studies, ciltXIX,No.1;55-78.
• Yentürk,N. Ve A.Çimenoğlu(2002), Türkiye'de Yatırım-Tasarruf ve Büyüme İlişkinin Yönü; Yentürk, N.(2003) Körlerin Yürüyüşü Türkiye Ekonomisi ve 1990 Sonrası Krizler, İst.Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları,1.Baskı.
• Yentürk, N(2003), “Birikimin Kaynakları”; A.H.Köse-F.Şenses-E.Yeldan (Der),İktisat Üzerine Yazılar II İktisadi Kalkınma Kriz ve İstikrar (Oktar Türel'e Armağan), İletişim Yayınları,1.Baskı.
• Yıldırım,K., D.Karaman ve M.Taşdemir(2006), Makroekonomi, SeçkinYayınevi,5.Baskı.