BÜTÇE AÇIKLARININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: 1970–2005 TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2011, Sayı: 30, 39 - 50, 20.06.2015

Kemal Yıldırım Süleyman Emre Özcan

Öz

The term of sustainability, about what the economists started to talk from the beginning of 1990s, has became so important and been actual up to now. According to budget policies sustainability is an accomplishment of governments on the administration of their responsibility on public expenditures for today and future. Sustainability of debts points out if the government has power to cover the entire budget deficits and its own debts or the debts are much bigger then government can cover. In another words sustainability of debts help us to be able to measure the possibility of insolvency of governments. If a government is trying to cover its continuous budget deficits with run up debts, this policy will cause rapid increasing in borrowing costs and interest rates and finally this kind of borrowing policy will be failed. There are three methods to measure the sustainability of debts; accounting method, the indicators of sustainability and intertemporal budget constraint theory. In this paper we analyzed that sustainability of Turkish budget deficits with assist of 1970-2005 data and cointegration analysis. Evidences show that the sustainability is weak in the period

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sustainability, intertemporal budget constraint, Ponzi Game, cointegration

BÜTÇE AÇIKLARININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: 1970–2005 TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

gündeme gelen sürdürülebilirlik olgusu günümüzde hala güncelliğini ve önemini korumaktadır. Bütçe politikaları açısından sürdürülebilirlik hükümetlerin şimdiki ve gelecekteki harcama yükümlülüklerini yönetme yeteneğidir. Sürdürülebilirlik kavramı, açık ve borçların aşırı boyutlarda olup olmadığını ortaya koymakta ve hükümetlerin acze düşme olasılığını göstermektedir. Sürekli olarak açık veren bir ekonomide, hükümetin açıklarını borçlanma yoluyla finanse etmeye çalışması, faiz ve borç yükünün hızla artmasına ve borçlanma politikasının çökmesine yol açacaktır. Sürdürülebilirliğin ölçülmesinde; muhasebe yaklaşımı, sürdürülebilirlik göstergeleri yaklaşımı ve bu çalışmaya temel teşkil edecek olan dönemler arası bütçe kısıtı yaklaşımı olmak üzere üç temel yaklaşım kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1970-2005 dönemi verileri ve eşbütünleşme analizi yardımıyla, Türkiye’nin söz konusu dönemdeki bütçe açıklarının sürdürülebilirliği incelenmiştir. Bulgular, ilgili dönemde sürdürülebilirliğin zayıf olduğunu göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sürdürülebilirlik, dönemlerarası bütçe kısıtı, Ponzi Oyunu, eşbütünleşme

Kaynakça

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