PİYASA ETKİNLİĞİ HİPOTEZİ: İMKB İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Yıl 2013, Sayı: 36, - , 01.06.2013

Fatma Zeren Hakan Kara Ayşe Arı

Öz

The increasing of profit seeking in the stock markets of developing countries has attracted the attention of researhers for the market efficiency. The aim of this study is to test the weak form of market efficiency for the national stock market. In accordance with this purpose, ISE 100 index is analysed for the 1 November 1987 and 30 November 2012 period within the random walk model framework. We employed a unit root test with structural breaks provided by Lanne et al. (2002) and Saikkonen and Lutkepohl (2002). The results indicate the nonstationary of ISE 100 index. Thus, it is seen that the Turkish stock market is efficient

Anahtar Kelimeler

Efficient market hypothesis, Unit Root Tests, Weak Form Efficiency, Structural Break

PİYASA ETKİNLİĞİ HİPOTEZİ: İMKB İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki hisse senedi piyasalarında artan kâr arayışları, araştırmacıların piyasaların etkinliğine olan ilgisini artırmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı da ulusal hisse senedi piyasasının zayıf formda etkinliğini test etmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda rassal yürüyüş modeli çerçevesinde İMKB 100 endeksi 1 Kasım 1987 ile 30 Kasım 2012 dönemi için Lanne vd. (2002) ile Saikkonen ve Lutkepohl (2002) tarafından geliştirilen yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda İMKB 100 endeksinin durağan olmadığı bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Böylece Türk hisse senedi piyasasının etkin olduğu görülmektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Etkin Piyasa Hipotezi, Birim Kök Testi, Zayıf Formda Etkinlik, Yapısal Kırılma

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