FİNANSAL DIŞA AÇIKLIĞIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2013, Sayı: 36, - , 01.06.2013

Mehmet Mercan Osman Peker

Öz

Bu çalışmada, McKinnon-Shaw’ın, sermaye hareketlerinin dışa açık hale getirilmesinin ekonomik büyümeyi arttıracağı savı, Türkiye örneğinde Pesaran vd. (2001) tarafından geliştirilen sınır testi yöntemi yardımıyla,1992-2011 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak kurulan iki model yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Uzun dönem analizi sonuçlarına göre, her iki modelde de finansal dışa açıklığın büyüme üzerindeki etkisi istatistiki olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur. Ticari dışa açıklığın büyüme üzerindeki etkisi ise, beklentilerimizle uyumlu olarak pozitif ve anlamlı çıkmıştır. Kısa dönem analizinde ise, her iki modelde de hata düzeltme teriminin katsayısı negatif ve anlamlıdır. Yani modellerdeki kısa dönemde meydana gelen sapmalar uzun dönemde dengesine yakınsamaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal Dışa Açıklık, Ticari Dışa Açıklık, Sınır Testi, Türkiye

FİNANSAL DIŞA AÇIKLIĞIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

In this study, McKinnon-Shaw’s thesis suggesting that capital movement liberalisation would increase economic growth was analysed with the bounds testing approach developed by Peseran et al. (2001) and with two models established by using annual data of the period 1992–2011 in Turkey sample. According to the results of long term analysis, effect of financial openness on growth in both models was statistically insignificant. However, the effect of trade openness on growth is positive and significant in line with our expectations. In short-term analysis, on the other hand, coefficient of the error correction term in both models was negative and significant. Therefore, deviations in the models happening in short-term converge to equilibrium in the long-term

Anahtar Kelimeler

-

Kaynakça

• ACARAVCI, A., ÖZTÜRK, İ. ve ACARAVCI, S. K. (2007). “Finance- Growth Nexus: Evidence from Turkey”,
• International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 11: 30-40. AKYÜZ, Y. (1994). “Globalleşme: Risklerin Belirlenmesi”, İşletme ve Finans, 110(5): 12-7.
• ASLAN, Ö. ve KÜÇÜKAKSOY, İ. (2006). “Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi
• Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 4: 12- BACCHETTA, P. (1992). “Liberalization of Capital Movement and of the Domestic Financial Sistem”, Economica, 59(11): 465-74.
• BEKAERT, G., HARVEY, C. R. and LUNDBLAD, C. (2005). “Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?”,
• Journal of Financial Economics, 77: 3-56. BERKMAN, A. N. (2011). “Türkiye’de Finansal Liberalizasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki”, C.Ü.
• İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 12(2): 259-278. BHAGWATI, J. and KRUEGER, A. O. (1995). “The Dangerous Drift to Preferential Trade Agreements”,
• Washington: American Enterprise Institute. BHAGWATI, J. (1998). “The Capital Myth: The Difference Between Trade in Widgets and Trade in Dollars”, Foreign Afairs, 77: 7-12.
• CHARI, A. and HENRY, P. B. (2002). “Capital Account Liberalization: Allocative Efficiency or Animal Spirits” NBER Working Paper, 8908.
• CHINN, M. D. and ITO, H. (2002). “Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross
• Country Evidence”, NBER Working Paper No. 8967.
• CHINN, M. D. and ITO, H. (2006). “What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions” Journal of Development Economics. 81(1): 163–192.
• DETRAGIACHE, E. and DEMİRGÜÇ, A. (1997). “The Determinant of Banking Crises: Avidence from Developed and Developing Countries”, World Bank Working papers, 1828.
• DICKEY, D. and FULLER, W. A. (1979). “Distribution of the Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit
• Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association , 74: 427-431. EICHENGREEN, B., MICHAEL, M., GIOVANNI, D. and DETRAGIACHE, E. (1998). “Capital Account
• Liberalization Theoretical and Practical Aspects”, IMF Occasional Papers, 172: 12-30. EICHENGREEN, B. and LEBLANG, D. (2002). “Capital Account Liberalization and Growth: Was Mr. Mahathir
• Right?”, www.nber.org/papers/w9427.
• EMSEN, Ö. S. ve DEĞER, M. K. (2006). “Ticari ve Siyasal Liberalizasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkileri: Geçis
• Ekonomileri Deneyimi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 21(2): 61-180. ENDERS, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Song, Inc.
• ENDERS, W. (1996). Rats Handbook for Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Song, Inc.
• ENGLE, R. and GRANGER, C. W. (1987). “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Represention, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2): 251–276.
• FISCHER, S. (1998). Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the IMF, Princeton.
• FRENKEL, J. A. (1983). "Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics," NBER Books, National Bureau of
• Economic Research, Inc, number fren83-1, 11377.
• GLICK, R. and HUTCHINSON, M. (2001). Banking Crises and Currency Crises: How Common are the Twins, in
• Financial Crises in Emerging Markets, New York: Cambridge University Press. GUJARATI, D, N. (1999). Basic Econometrics, McGraw Hill, Literatür Yayıncılık, 3rd edition, İstanbul.
• HALICIOĞLU, F. (2007). “The Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus For Turkey”, MPRA Paper
• No: 3566, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3566/: 1-9.
• HENRY, P. B. (2000). "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform and Emerging Market Equity Prices",
• Journal of Finance, 55(2): 529-564. HENRY, P. B. (2003). "Capital Account Liberalization: The Cost of Capital and Economic Growth" NBER Work.
• HEYBEY, B. and MURRELL, P. (1998). “The Relationship Economic Growth and The Speed of Liberalisation
• During Transition“, Policy Reform, 3: 121-137. JOHANSEN, S. and JUSELIUS, K. (1990). “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with
• Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, 52: 169-210. JOHANSEN, S. (1988). “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 12: 231-254.
• JOHNSTON, J. and DINARDO, J. (1997). Econometric Methods (4th Ed.) New York, NY: McGraw Hill.
• KAMAS, L. and JOYCE, J. P. (1993). “Money, Income and Prices Under Fixed Exchange Rates: Evidence from
• Causality Tests and VARs”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 15(4): 747-768. KAMINSKY, G. and REINHART, C. (1999). “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments
• Problems”, The American Economic Review, 89(3):473-500. KENEN, P. (1976). “Capital Mobility and Financial Integration: A Survey”, Princeton Studies in International Finance, No:39.
• KLEIN, M. W. and OLIVEI, G. P. (2001). “Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Depth and Economic Growth”
• Tufts, Medford, MA(2001) Mimeo.
• KLEIN, M. W. and OLIVEI, G. P. (2008). “Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Depth and Economic Growth”,
• Journal of International Money and Finance, 27(6): 861-875. LAW, S. H. and DEMETRIADES, P. (2006). “Finance Institutions and Economic Development”, International
• Journal of Finance and Economics, 11: 245-260. MATHRESON, D. and LILIANA, R. S. (1992). “Liberalizing the Capital Account”, Finance and Development, 11: 41
• MATTOO, A., RATHINDRAN, R. and SUBRAMANIAN, A. (2006). “Measuring Services Trade Liberalisation and Its Impact on Economic Growth: An Illustration”, Journal of Economic Integration, 21: 64-98.
• MCKINNON, R. I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development. Washington DC: Brookings Institution.
• NARAYAN, P. and NARAYAN, S. (2004). “Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Imports for Fiji in a
• Cointegration Framework”, Economic Modelling, 22: 423-438. ONUR, S. (2005). “Finansal Liberalizasyon ve GSMH Büyümesi Arasındaki İlişki”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(1): 127-152.
• ÖZTÜRK, İ. (2008). “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 8(1): 85-98.
• PESARAN, M., SHIN, Y. and SMITH, R. J. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level
• Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289-326. PRASAD, E. R., WEI, K. S. J. and KÖSE, A. (2003). “Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries:
• Some Empirical Evidence”, International Monetary Fund. RANCIERE, R., TORNELL, A. and WESTERMANN, F. (2006). “Decomposing the Effects of Financial
• Liberalization: Crises vs. Growth”, NBER Working Paper. 12806.
• RODRIK, D. (1998). “Who Needs Capital Account Convertibility?”, Princeton Essays in International Finance, 207: 55
• SERPER, Ö. (2000). Uygulamalı İstatistik I, Ezgi Kitabevi, Bursa.
• SHAW, E. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development. Oxford University Press. New York, USA.
• STIGLITZ, E. J. (2000). “Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability” World Development, 28(6): 1075-1086.
• STIGLITZ, E. J. (2002). “Globalization and Its Discontents, W.W. Norton, New York.
• SUMMERS, L. H. (2000). “International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and and Cures”, American Economic Review. 90(2): 1-16.
• TAŞ, S. ve ÖRNEK, İ. (2003). “Türkiye’de Finansal Serbestleşme ve Ekonomik Büyüme arasındaki Nedensellik
• İlişkisi”, Banka ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 468: 82-96. TCMB (2002). Küreselleşmenin Türkiye Ekonomisine Etkileri, TCMB, Mayıs 2002, Ankara, Türkiye. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/evds/yayin/kitaplar/kuresel.pdf, 31.07.2010.
• UNCTAD (1990). Trade and Development Report, Genova, ITALY.
• UTKULU, U. ve KAHYAOĞLU, H. (2005). “Ticari ve Finansal Açıklık Türkiye’de Büyümeyi Ne Yönde Etkiledi?”
• Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni, 2005/13
• UTKULU, U. ve ÖZDEMİR, D. (2004). “Does Trade Liberalization Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in
• Turkey”, Economics of Planning, 37: 245–26. ÜNALMIŞ, D. (2002). “The Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey”, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/research/work/wp6.pdf, 25.01.2009. Research Department, Working Paper, No: 3, Ankara.
• WILLIAMSON, J. (1997). Orthodoxy is right: liberalize the capital account last. In C. P. Riesand R. J. Sweeney
• (eds.). Capital Controls in Emerging Economies. Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, USA VERGHESE, S. K. (1985). “Functioning of Foreign Exchange and Financial Markets: Some Key Issues”, Economics and Political Weekly, 20(18), 797-800.
• YILGÖR, A. G. (2006). “Finansal Liberalizasyon ve Türkiye'de Sermeye Piyasaları Üzerindeki Etkisi”, 10. Ulusal
• Finans Sempozyumu, 1-4 Kasım 2006, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, İzmir.