Analysis of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s Currency Reserves with the Monetary Payments Balance Approach: RALS Unit Root and Co-Integration Analysis

Öz

Foreign currency reserves are important external assets held by countries in cases of international payment difficulties.Especially in the recent period, it has become more important for countries as it minimizes future insecurity and instills confidence.In this study, the relationship in Turkey between money supply and foreign exchange reserves is discussed. In the study, the subject is handled with the monetary balance of payments approach, unlike the other studies in the literature. In the study where the period of 2008: 01-2019: 12 is dealt with, the stationarity examination is made with ADF and RALS-ADF unit root tests.After determining that the variables are not stationary at the level, EG and RALS-EG cointegration tests are performed. According to the test results, the existence of a long-term relationship between variables has been revealed. ADF unit root test and EG cointegration tests are also included in the analysis for comparison. After the estimation results of the variables, it is concluded that the increase in money supply increases the foreign exchange reserves in accordance with the theory.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Exchange Reserve
• , Central Bank
• RALS
• Cointegration

Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Döviz Rezervinin Parasalcı Ödemeler Dengesi Yaklaşımıyla Analizi: RALS Birim Kök ve Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Öz

Döviz rezervleri, uluslararası ödeme güçlükleri durumunda ülkelerin elinde bulundurduğu önemli dış varlıklardır. Özellikle son dönemde ülkeler için, gelecek güvensizliğini en aza indirip, güven telkin ettiği için daha önemli hale gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, döviz rezervi ve para arzı arasında ilişki, Türkiye özelinde ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada, konu literatürdeki çalışmalardan farklı olarak, parasalcı ödemeler dengesi yaklaşımıyla ele alınmıştır. 2008:01-2019:12 döneminin ele alındığı çalışmada, ADF ve RALS-ADF birim kök testleriyle durağanlık incelemesi yapılmıştır. Değişkenlerin seviyede durağan olmadığının tespit edilmesinden sonra, EG ve RALS-EG eşbütünleşme testi yapılmıştır. Test sonuçlarına göre, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığı ortaya konulmuştur. Analizlerde karşılaştırma yapabilmek adına, ADF birim kök testi ve EG eşbütünleşme testlerine de yer verilmiştir. Değişkenlere ait tahmin sonuçlarından sonra, para arzında yaşanan artışın, teoriye uygun şekilde döviz rezervlerini arttırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Döviz Rezervi
• Merkez Bankası
• RALS
• Eşbütünleşme

Kaynakça

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