INVESTIGATING THE RELATIONS BETWEEN COFFEE PRICES AND THE GROWTH OF SELECTED COFFEE EXPORTING COUNTRIES

Öz

Coffee, one of the most important commodities traded in the world, is mainly grown in Latin America and Africa under certain altitudes and climatic conditions. In this study, causality relationships between world coffee prices and GDPs of four coffee producer countries, two from Latin America (Brazil and Colombia) and two from Africa (Kenya and Ethiopia), were tested. Using the series from 1981-2021, the relationships were investigated empirically with Engle-Granger cointegration analysis, error correction model, and Toda-Yamamoto causality methods. According to the analysis, while unidirectional causality between GDP and world coffee price was found for Brazil, Colombia, and Kenya, there was no causality for Ethiopia. As a result of the Engle-Granger cointegration analysis, which tests the long-term relationship, a significant relationship has been found between GDP and coffee prices for all selected countries. According to the results of the error correction model results model that tests the short-term relationship, the relationship between GDP and world coffee price is obtained for Brazil and Colombia. However, such a relationship could not be found in Kenya and Ethiopia.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Coffee Prices
• Toda-Yamamoto Causality
• Engle-Granger Co-integration
• Error Correction Model

KAHVE FİYATLARI İLE KAHVE İHRAÇ EDEN SEÇİLMİŞ ÜLKELERİN BÜYÜMELERİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİLERİN ARAŞTIRILMASI

Öz

Dünyada ticareti yapılan en önemli emtialardan biri olan kahve, ağırlıklı olarak Latin Amerika ve Afrika'da belirli rakım ve iklim koşullarında yetiştirilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, ikisi Latin Amerika'da (Brezilya ve Kolombiya) ve ikisi Afrika'da (Kenya ve Etiyopya) olmak üzere dört kahve üreticisi ülkenin dünya kahve fiyatları ile GSYH'leri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri test edilmiştir. 1981-2021 serisi kullanılarak ilişkiler Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme analizi, hata düzeltme modeli ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik yöntemleriyle ampirik olarak araştırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Brezilya, Kolombiya ve Kenya için GSYH ile dünya kahve fiyatı arasında tek yönlü nedensellik bulunurken, Etiyopya için nedensellik saptanmamıştır. Uzun dönemli ilişkiyi test eden Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme analizi sonucunda seçilen tüm ülkeler için GSYH ile kahve fiyatları arasında anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Kısa dönemli ilişkiyi test eden hata düzeltme modeli sonuçlarına göre Brezilya ve Kolombiya için GSYH ile dünya kahve fiyatı arasındaki ilişki saptanmıştır. Ancak Kenya ve Etiyopya'da böyle bir ilişkiye rastlanmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kahve Fiyatları
• Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik
• Engle-Granger Eşbütünleşmesi
• Hata Düzeltme Modeli

Kaynakça

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