REGIONAL LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN TURKISH ECONOMY

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 26, 481 - 511, 30.11.2023

Şahin Nas , Maya Moalla

https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1310347

Öz

Structural change is labelled as the shift of resources from low productive sectors to those with high-value-added. The structural change process can stimulate the evolution of the economy by increasing productivity. This study examines structural change and the bases of labour productivity evolution in 26 regions of Turkey for 2010-2020 period. Therefore, the Shift-Share Analysis method was employed in the study. The TURKSTAT gross domestic product in chain-linked volume, index and percentage change (2009 = 100) and employment by kind of economic activity data were utilized. The consequences revealed that the within-sector effect is the primary basis of productivity evolution in 26 regions of Turkey. The structural change has a positive but minor bearing on total labour productivity evolution in almost all regions. The within-sector effect is more dominant in the agricultural sector, but the bearing of structural change is negative. Similarly, the within-sector effect is stronger in the regions' industrial sectors (except for TR71, TRA1, TRA2, TRB2). The bearing of structural change in the services sector was better than in other sectors. As a result, it has been observed that the labour force is not directed to high-value-added sectors, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors, but the situation is better in the services sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Structural Change, Productivity Growth, Shift-Share Analysis

TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE BÖLGESEL İŞGÜCÜ VERİMLİLİK ARTIŞI VE YAPISAL DEĞİŞİM

Öz

Bir ekonomide kaynakların düşük verimli sektörlerden yüksek verimli sektörlere kayması yapısal değişim olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Yapısal değişim de verimliliği artırmaktadır, bu durumda da ekonomik büyüme daha dinamik ve istikrarlı bir hal almaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı, 2010-2020 dönemi için Türkiye’nin 26 bölgesinde (İBBS Düzey-2) yapısal değişim ve emek verimliliği artışının kaynaklarını analiz etmektir. Analizleri yapabilmek için çalışmada, Shift-Share Analiz yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bunun için TÜİK veri tabanında yer alan iktisadi faaliyet kollarına göre gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla, zincirlenmiş hacim, endeks ve değişim oranları (2009=100) ve istihdam verileri kullanılmıştır. Bulgulara göre, Türkiye’nin 26 bölgesinde verimlilik artışının temel kaynağı sektör-içi etkidir. Yapısal değişim etkisi neredeyse tüm bölgelerde pozitif olmasına rağmen emek verimliliği artışı üzerinde küçük bir etkisi vardır. 26 bölgenin tarım sektöründe sektör-içi etki daha baskın ve yapısal değişim etkisi negatiftir. Aynı şekilde bölgelerin sanayi sektöründe (TR71, TRA1, TRA2, TRB2 hariç) de sektör-içi etki daha baskındır. Ancak hizmetler sektöründe yapısal değişim etkisi daha iyi durumda olduğu görülmüştür. Dolayısıyla tarım ve sanayi sektöründe işgücünün yüksek verimli sektörlere yönelmediği ancak hizmetler sektöründe bu durumun daha iyi olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yapısal Değişim, Verimlilik Artışı, Shift-Share Analizi.

Kaynakça

• Akkemik, K. A. (2006). Patterns of industrialisation, structural changes and productivity in Turkish manufacturing (1970-2000). Journal of economic cooperation, 27(1), 71-88. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/242269178_patterns_of_ındustrıalısatıon_structural_changes_and_productivity_in_turkish_manufacturing_1970-2000
• Altıok, M., & Tuncer, İ. (2012). İmalat sanayinde yapısal değişim ve üretkenlik: Türkiye, akdeniz bölgesi ve mersin ili karşılaştırması. Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni 2012/71. Ankara: Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/81626
• Altıok, M., & Tuncer, İ. (2013). Türkiye imalat sanayinde yapısal değişim ve üretkenlik: 1980–2008 dönemi. Anadolu üniversitesi sosyal bilimler dergisi, 13(2), 55-69. https://kutuphane.dogus.edu.tr/mvt/pdf.php?pdf=0014670&lng=0
• Atiyas, İ., & Bakis, O. (2015). Structural change and industrial policy in Turkey. Emerging markets finance & trade, 51(6), 1209-1229. doi:10.1080/1540496X.2015.1080523
• Atiyas, İ., & Bakış, O. (2013). Structural change and industrial policy in Turkey. Working Paper No. 2013-3. İstanbul: TÜS˙IAD – Sabancı Üniversitesi Rekabet Forumu. https://ref.sabanciuniv.edu/sites/ref.sabanciuniv.edu/files/2021-04/str_ch_refwp_0.pdf
• Bilenko, Y. (2022). Labor productivity in the agriculture, structural shifts and economic growth in the Central and Eastern European Countrıes. Agricultural and resource economics, 8(4), 5-32. doi:10.51599/are.2022.08.04.01 Chang, H., & Grabel, I. (2016). Kalkınma yeniden alternatif iktisat politikaları el kitabı. (E. Özçelik, Çev.) Ankara: İmge Kitabevi. Chang, H.-J. (2002). Kicking away the ladder: Development strategy in historical perspective. London: Anthem Press. Chenery, H. (1986). Growth and transformation. H. Chenery, S. Robinson, & M. Syrquin (Ed.) içinde, industrialization and growth: A Comparative Study (s. 13-36). Washington: A World Bank Research Publication.
• Chenery, H., Robinson, S., & Syrquin, M. (1986). Industrialization and growth: A Comparative Study. (H. Chenery, S. Robinson, & M. Syrquin, Ed.) Washington: A World Bank Research Publication.
• de Vries, G. J., Erumban, A. A., Timmer, M. P., Voskoboynikov, I., & Wua, H. X. (2012). Deconstructing the BRICs: Structural transformation and aggregate productivity growth. Journal of comparative economics, 40, 211-227. doi:10.1016/j.jce.2012.02.004
• de Vries, G., Timmer, M., & de Vries, K. (2015). Structural transformation in Africa: Static gains, dynamic losses. The journal of development studies, 51(6), 674-688. doi:10.1080/00220388.2014.997222
• Diao, X., McMillan, M., & Rodrik, D. (2017). The recent growth boom in developing economies: A structural change perspective. NBER Working Paper Series (Working Paper 23132). U.S.A: Natıonal Bureau of Economıc Research. http://www.nber.org/papers/w23132
• Dieppe, A., & Matsuoka, H. (2021). Sectoral decomposition of convergence in labor productivity: A Re-examination from a new dataset. Policy Research Working Paper 9767. U.S.A.: World Bank Group. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/490901630527256426/sectoral-decomposition-of-convergence-in-labor-productivity-a-re-examination-from-a-new-dataset
• Dobrzanski, P., & Grabowski, W. (2019). Structural and productivity changes of Central and Eastern Europe. Structural and productivity changes..., 37(2), 427-471. doi:10.18045/zbefri.2019.2.427
• Doğruel, A. S., & Doğruel, F. (2018). Türkiye'de yapısal ve teknolojik değişme. In N. Engin, E. Aslanoğlu, O.Erdoğam, B. C. Karahasan and K. Tata (Ed.). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Kalkınma ve Dönüşüm: Taner Berksoy'a Armağan (pp. 267-286). Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
• Fabricant, S. (1942). Employment in manufacturing, 1899-1939: An analysis of its relation to the volume of production. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/employment-manufacturing-1899-1939-analysis-its-relation-volume-production
• Fagerberg, J. (2000). Technological progress, structural change and productivity growth: a comparative study. Structural change and economic dynamics (11), 393-411. doi:10.1016/S0954-349X(00)00025-4
• Harchaoui, T. M., & Üngör, M. (2016). Sectoral sources of sub-Saharan Africa’s convergence. Applied economics letters,, 23(9), 642-651. doi:10.1080/13504851.2015.1095994
• Kaldor, N. (1967). Causes of The Slow Rate of Economic Growthin The United Kingdom: An Inaugural Lecture by Nicholas Kaldor. Cambridge: Cambrigde University Press.
• Kaymaz, V. (2022). Sektörel ayrışma ve emek verimliliği. Trends in business and economics, 36(1), 93-101. doi:10.54614/TBE.2022.951336
• Kılıçaslan, Y., & Taymaz, E. (2006). Sınai yapı, yapısal değişim ve üretkenlik. İktisat, işletme ve finans, 21(247), 5-23. doi:10.3848/iif.2006.247.0960
• Kubo, Y., Robinson, S., & Syrquin, M. (1986). The methodology of multisector comparative analysis. IN H. Chenery, S. Robinson, & M. Syrquin (Ed.). Industrialization and Growth: A Comparative Study (pp. 121-147). Washington: Oxford University Press.
• Kuznets, S. (1973). Modern economic growth: Findings and reflections. The American economic review, 63(3), 247-258. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1914358
• Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139-191. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x
• McCaig, B., & Pavcnik, N. (2016). Moving out of agriculture: Structural change in Vietnam. In M. McMillan, D. Rodrik, & C. Sepúlveda (Ed.). Structural Change, Fundamentals, And Growth: A Framework And Case Studies (pp. 81-124). Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute. doi:10.2499/9780896292147
• McCaig, B., McMillan, M., Verduzco-Gallo, Í., & Jefferis, K. (2016). Stuck in the middle? Structural change and productivity growth in Botswana. In M. McMillan, D. Rodrik and C. Sepúlveda (Ed.). Structural Change, Fundamentals, and Growth. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute. doi:10.2499/9780896292147
• McMillan, M. S., & Rodrik, D. (2011). Globalıization, structural change and productivity growth. NBER Working Paper No. 17143. U.S.A.: National Bureau of Economic Research. http://www.nber.org/papers/w17143
• McMillan, M., Rodrik, D., & Sepulveda, C. (2017). Structural change, fundamentals and growth: A framework and case studıes. NBER Working Paper Series (Working Paper 23378). U.S.A: National Bureau of Economic Research. http://www.nber.org/papers/w23378
• Nas, Ş., Moalla, M., & Tuncer, İ. (2023). Structural change and growth prospects in the Turkish economy: A demand-side decomposition analysis. E&M economics and management, 26(1), 25-44. doi:10.15240/tul/001/2023-1-002
• Nassif, A., Morandi, L., Araújo, E., & Feijó, C. (2020). Structural change and productivity growth in Brazil: Where do we stand? Brazilian journal of political economy, 40(2), 243-263. doi:10.1590/0101-31572020-3089
• Nguyen, H. C. (2018). Empirical evidence of structural change: The case of Vietnam’s economic growth. Journal of Southeast Asian economies, 35(2), 237-256. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26539216
• Osei, R. D., & Jedwab, R. (2016). Structural change in a poor African country: New historical evidence from Ghana. In M. McMillan, D. Rodrik, & C. Sepúlveda (Ed.). Structural Change, Fundamentals, and Growth: A Framework and Case Studies (pp. 161-197). Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute. doi:10.2499/9780896292147
• Rodrik, D. (2010). Structural transformation and economic development. Ankara: TEPAV Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey. www.tepav.org.tr/en
• Rodrik, D., McMillan, M., & Sepúlveda, C. (2016). Structural change, fundamentals, and growth. In M. McMillan, D. Rodrik, & C. Sepúlveda (Ed.). Structural Change, Fundamentals, and Growth: A Framework and Case Studies (pp. 1-39). Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute. doi:10.2499/9780896292147
• Stiglitz, J. E. (2017). Industrial policy, learning, and development. In J. Page, & F. Tarp (Ed.). The Practice of Industrial Policy: Government–Business Coordination in Africa and East Asia (pp. 23-39). United Kingdom: Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198796954.001.0001
• Swiecki, T. (2017). Determinants of structural change. Review of economic dynamics (24), 95-131. doi:10.1016/j.red.2017.01.007
• Syrquin, M. (1986). Productivity growth and factor reallocation. In H. Chenery, S. Robinson, & M. Syrquin (Ed.). Industrialızation and Growth: A Comparative Study (pp. 229-262). Washington: Oxford University Press.
• Timmer, M. P., & de Vries, G. J. (2009). Structural change and growth accelerations in Asia and Latin America: A new sectoral data set. Cliometrica (3), 165-190. doi:10.1007/s11698-008-0029-5
• Timmer, M. P., & Szirmai, A. (2000). Productivity growth in Asian manufacturing: The structural bonus hypothesis examined. Structural change and economic dynamics (11), 371-392. doi:10.1016/S0954-349X(00)00023-0
• Timmer, M., de Vries, G. J., & de Vries, K. (2016). Patterns of structural change in developing countries. In J. Weiss, & M. Tribe (Ed.). Routledge Handbook of Industry and Development (pp. 65-83). New York: Routledge.
• Timmer, M., de Vries, G., & de Vries, K. (2014). Patterns of structural change in developing countries. GGDC Research Memorandum 149. Netherland: University Of Groningen, Groningen Growth And Development Centre. https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/html_publications/memorandum/gd149.pdf
• Tuncer, İ., & Moalla, M. W. (2020a). Structural Change And Aggregate Labour Productıvıty In The Turkısh Non-Farm Busıness Industrıes. In S. A. Hatırlı, Ş. A. Koç, & O. Demirel (Ed.), Theoretıcal and Applied Studies on Turkish Economy (pp. 155-174). London: IJOPEC Publication No: 2020/08.
• Tuncer, İ., & Moalla, M. W. (2020b). Structural change and growth prospects in the Turkish manufacturing industry. Bulletin of economic theory and analysis, 1-19. doi:10.25229/beta.681451
• TURKSTAT (2023). Turkish Statistical Institute. Industry. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=sanayi-114&dil=2
• Valli, V., & Saccone, D. (2015). Structural change, globalization and economic growth in China and India. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 12(2), 133-163. https://ejce.liuc.it/
• Yurtsızoğlu, Z., & Kılıçaslan, Y. (2017). Türkiye hizmet sektöründe yapısal değişim ve verimlilik. Ege Akademik Bakış, 17(2), 215-228. doi:10.21121/eab.2017225200