Gördes Havzası Akışlarının Modellenmesinde Era5-Land Verilerinin Performans Değerlendirmesi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 3, 507 - 517, 30.09.2023

Destina Dilan Ekinci , Okan Fıstıkoğlu

https://doi.org/10.24012/dumf.1327255

Öz

İklim değişikliğinin akarsu akımları üzerindeki etkilerinin hidrolojik modeller yardımıyla belirlenmesinde küresel atmosferik veri setlerinden sıklıkla faydalanılmaktadır. Sunulan çalışmada, Ege bölgesinde yer alan Gördes Havzası akımlarının hem küresel veri setleri hem de lokal istasyon verileri ile akışlarının modellenmesi ve bu model sonuçları dikkate alınarak performansın değerlendirmesi amaçlanmıştır. Küresel veri seti olarak ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) tarafından sunulan 1959-2022 yılları arasında veri sağlayan ERA5 Land veri seti ve hidrolojik model olarak da abcd aylık yağış akış modeli kullanılmıştır. Model performansını değerlendirmek için Nash-Shutcliffe performans fonksiyonu seçilmiş olup optimum model parametrelerin tahmini için Parçacık Sürü Optimizasyonu Algoritması (PSO) kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular ERA5 Land veri setinin Gördes Havzası’nın aylık akımlarının modellenmesinde havzanın hidrolojik özelliklerini başarılı bir şekilde yansıttığı ve bu veri setini kullanmanın modelleme çalışmalarında kolaylaştırıcı olacağı gösterilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Era5-Land, Abcd Modeli, Parçacık Sürü Optimizasyonu, Gördes Havzası

Kaynakça

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