Castanea Sativa Mill.’in Bolu Orman Bölge Müdürlüğü Sınırları İçindeki Olası Yayılış Alanlarının İklim Değişkenlerine Bağlı Modellenmesi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 1, 1 - 33, 30.06.2025

Selim Kalıpçıoğlu Ahmet Salih Değermenci

https://doi.org/10.58816/duzceod.1656326

Öz

Bu çalışma Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin Kuzeybatısında bulunan Bolu Orman Bölge Müdürlüğünde 2050, 2070 ve 2090 yılları için SSP2-4.5 ve SSP5-8.5 olmak üzere iki iklim senaryosu altında MaxEnt tür dağılım modelini kullanarak iklim değişikliğinin Castanea sativa (Anadolu Kestanesi) habitatları üzerindeki potansiyel etkileri değerlendirilmiştir. Biyoklimatik ve topografik faktörler dahil olmak üzere çevresel değişkenler, çoklu doğrusallığı en aza indirmek için ekolojik uygunluk ve korelasyon analizine dayalı olarak seçilmiştir. Model, eğitim verileri için 0,961 ve test verileri için 0,959 AUC değerleri ile yüksek tahmin doğruluğu göstererek sağlam bir performans sergilemiştir. Sonuçlar, yağış ve sıcaklık değişkenliğinin en etkili faktörler olduğunu, Bio17'nin (en kurak çeyreğin yağışı) modele %42,2 oranında katkıda bulunduğunu, bunu Bio15 (yağış mevsimselliği, %27,6) ve Bio4'ün (sıcaklık mevsimselliği, %15,7) izlediğini ortaya koymaktadır. SSP5-8.5 senaryosuna göre, C. sativa için uygun olmayan alanların 907.585,92 hektardan 2050 yılına kadar 910.104,16 hektara, 2070 yılına kadar 911.058,07 hektara ve 2090 yılına kadar 909.943,00 hektara yükseleceği öngörülmektedir. Yüksek uygunluktaki alanlar nispeten sabit kalarak 310,92 ha'dan 2090 yılına kadar 266,47 ha'a düşmüştür. Buna karşılık, SSP2-4.5 senaryosu, yüksek uygunluklu alanlarda daha önemli bir düşüş öngörmektedir; 310,92 ha'dan 2090 yılına kadar 133,26 ha'a düşecek ve uygun olmayan alanlar 912.802,41 ha'a genişleyecektir. Orta uygunluktaki alanlar SSP2-4.5 kapsamında 34.584,00 ha'dan 2090'a kadar 36.261,46 ha'a artış göstererek geçiş habitatlarına daha fazla destek verileceğini düşündürmektedir. Dikey yayılış bakımından değerlendirildiğinde, C. sativa'nın ağırlıklı olarak 1000 metrenin altındaki yüksekliklerde bulunduğunu ve uygun alanların %20,2'sinin 0-100 metre arasında yer aldığı görülmektedir. Gelecek senaryoları altında, türün daha düşük yüksekliklere doğru kayması ve SSP5-8.5 altında yüksek uygunluklu alanların 0-100 metrede yoğunlaşması öngörülmektedir. Bu bulgular, habitat kaybını ve parçalanmayı azaltmak için uyarlanabilir orman yönetimi ve koruma stratejilerinin kritik rolünü vurgulamaktadır. Çalışma bulguları özellikle iklim değişikliği karşısında C. sativa ve benzer türlerin korunması için iklim adaptasyonuna yönelik önlemlerinin alınması gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İklim değişikliği , habitat uygunluğu , SSP5-8.5 , SSP2-4.5 , Türkiye , İklim değişkenleri

Modeling of Potential Distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. in Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry Depending on Climate Variables

Öz

In this study, we assessed the potential impacts of climate change on Castanea sativa habitats using the MaxEnt model under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2050, 2070, and 2090 in the Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry, northwestern Turkey. Bioclimatic and topographic variables were selected through ecological and correlation analyses. The model performed well, with AUC values of 0.961 (training) and 0.959 (test). Bio17 (precipitation in the driest quarter), Bio15 (precipitation seasonality), and Bio4 (temperature seasonality) were the most influential variables. Under SSP5-8.5, unsuitable areas slightly increase while high suitability areas decrease from 310.92 ha to 266.47 ha by 2090. SSP2-4.5 projects a greater reduction in high suitability (to 133.26 ha) and an increase in medium suitability areas, suggesting habitat transitions. C. sativa is currently found predominantly at elevations below 1000 meters, with 20.2% of suitable habitats located between 0–100 meters; in the future, the species is expected to shift to relatively lower elevations. These findings highlight the importance of adaptive forestry and conservation strategies to reduce habitat loss and fragmentation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Climate change , habitat suitability , SSP5-8.5 , SSP2-4.5 , Turkey , worldclim

Kaynakça

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