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Modeling of Potential Distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. in Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry Depending on Climate Variables

Cilt: 21 Sayı: 1 30 Haziran 2025
Selim Kalıpçıoğlu , Ahmet Salih Değermenci *
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Modeling of Potential Distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. in Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry Depending on Climate Variables

Öz

In this study, we assessed the potential impacts of climate change on Castanea sativa habitats using the MaxEnt model under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2050, 2070, and 2090 in the Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry, northwestern Turkey. Bioclimatic and topographic variables were selected through ecological and correlation analyses. The model performed well, with AUC values of 0.961 (training) and 0.959 (test). Bio17 (precipitation in the driest quarter), Bio15 (precipitation seasonality), and Bio4 (temperature seasonality) were the most influential variables. Under SSP5-8.5, unsuitable areas slightly increase while high suitability areas decrease from 310.92 ha to 266.47 ha by 2090. SSP2-4.5 projects a greater reduction in high suitability (to 133.26 ha) and an increase in medium suitability areas, suggesting habitat transitions. C. sativa is currently found predominantly at elevations below 1000 meters, with 20.2% of suitable habitats located between 0–100 meters; in the future, the species is expected to shift to relatively lower elevations. These findings highlight the importance of adaptive forestry and conservation strategies to reduce habitat loss and fragmentation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Climate change, habitat suitability, SSP5-8.5, SSP2-4.5, Turkey, worldclim

Kaynakça

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Kaynak Göster

APA
Kalıpçıoğlu, S., & Değermenci, A. S. (2025). Modeling of Potential Distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. in Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry Depending on Climate Variables. Düzce Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Ormancılık Dergisi, 21(1), 1-33. https://doi.org/10.58816/duzceod.1656326
AMA
1.Kalıpçıoğlu S, Değermenci AS. Modeling of Potential Distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. in Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry Depending on Climate Variables. DÜOD. 2025;21(1):1-33. doi:10.58816/duzceod.1656326
Chicago
Kalıpçıoğlu, Selim, ve Ahmet Salih Değermenci. 2025. “Modeling of Potential Distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. in Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry Depending on Climate Variables”. Düzce Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Ormancılık Dergisi 21 (1): 1-33. https://doi.org/10.58816/duzceod.1656326.
EndNote
Kalıpçıoğlu S, Değermenci AS (01 Haziran 2025) Modeling of Potential Distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. in Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry Depending on Climate Variables. Düzce Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Ormancılık Dergisi 21 1 1–33.
IEEE
[1]S. Kalıpçıoğlu ve A. S. Değermenci, “Modeling of Potential Distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. in Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry Depending on Climate Variables”, DÜOD, c. 21, sy 1, ss. 1–33, Haz. 2025, doi: 10.58816/duzceod.1656326.
ISNAD
Kalıpçıoğlu, Selim - Değermenci, Ahmet Salih. “Modeling of Potential Distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. in Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry Depending on Climate Variables”. Düzce Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Ormancılık Dergisi 21/1 (01 Haziran 2025): 1-33. https://doi.org/10.58816/duzceod.1656326.
JAMA
1.Kalıpçıoğlu S, Değermenci AS. Modeling of Potential Distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. in Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry Depending on Climate Variables. DÜOD. 2025;21:1–33.
MLA
Kalıpçıoğlu, Selim, ve Ahmet Salih Değermenci. “Modeling of Potential Distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. in Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry Depending on Climate Variables”. Düzce Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Ormancılık Dergisi, c. 21, sy 1, Haziran 2025, ss. 1-33, doi:10.58816/duzceod.1656326.
Vancouver
1.Selim Kalıpçıoğlu, Ahmet Salih Değermenci. Modeling of Potential Distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. in Bolu Regional Directorate of Forestry Depending on Climate Variables. DÜOD. 01 Haziran 2025;21(1):1-33. doi:10.58816/duzceod.1656326