Türkiye'nin Farklı Rejimler Altında Sağlık Turizm Potansiyeli: Uluslararası Rekabet Gücünü Etkileyen Makroekonomik Faktörler

Öz

Bu çalışma 2003Ç1-2023Ç1 dönemi için, Türkiye’deki uluslararası sağlık turizm gelirlerinin makroekonomik belirleyicilerini, doğrusal olmayan bir yaklaşım olan Markov Rejim Değişim modeliyle ele almaktadır. Ampirik bulgular, iki rejimin tanımlandığını ve 2016Ç1 döneminde; düşükten yüksek rejime net bir geçiş olduğunu göstermektedir. Düşük rejimde ekonomik faktörlerin genel olarak istatistiksel olarak anlamsız olup, öte yandan yüksek rejimde ise hemen hemen tüm değişkenlerin uluslararası sağlık turizmi gelirleri üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi vardır. Yüksek rejimde göreli fiyatlar, reel efektif döviz kuru ve petrol fiyatlarındaki artışlar; uluslararası sağlık turizmi gelirlerinde bir azalmaya yol açarken, sağlık sektörü hisse senedi getirileri ise söz konusu gelirleri olumlu etkilemektedir. Küresel bir faktör olarak, belirsizlik endeksi ise her iki rejimde de istatistiksel olarak anlamsızdır. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’nin sağlık turizm pazarındaki fiyat rekabetine bağımlılığını vurgulamakta ve sektörün uzun vadeli uygulanabilirliğini artırmak için sürdürülebilir kamu teşviklerine olan ihtiyacın altını çizmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sağlık Turizmi
• Makroekonomik Faktörler
• Uluslararası Rekabet
• Markov Rejim Değişimi

Health Tourism Potential of Turkey under the Different Regimes: Macroeconomic Factors Affecting the International Competitiveness

Öz

This study focuses on the macroeconomic determinants of international health tourism revenues in Turkey from 2003Q1 to 2023Q1 with a nonlinear approach, a Markov Regime Switching model. Empirical findings show that two regimes are identified, and there is a clear-cut transition from the low to the high regime in 2016Q1. Most economic factors are statistically insignificant in the low regime, whereas almost all variables have a statistically significant impact on international health tourism revenues in the high regime. In the high regime, increases in relative prices, real effective exchange rates, and oil prices lead to a decrease in international health tourism revenues, while health sector stock returns positively impact the revenues. As a global factor, the effect of the uncertainty index is statistically insignificant in both regimes. The empirical findings highlight Turkey’s dependence on price competition in the health tourism market and underline the need for sustainable public incentives to enhance the long-term viability of the sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Health Tourism
• Macroeconomic Factors
• International Competitiveness
• Markov Regime Switching

Kaynakça

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