THE EFFECT OF NOMINAL GOVERNMENT DEFICITS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

Öz

It is basically accepted by now that there is a positive relationship between the nominal government deficits and inflation. Government deficits may be financed by monetary growth due to several reasons but whatever the reason, the result is an increase in inflation. This in turn may affect the growth of real GNP negatively, due to its adverse effects on the allocation of resources, on the labor market and on the decisions of firms. This paper combines these two links, i.e. nominal government deficits and inflation, and inflation and real GNP growth. It further shows the effect of nominal government deficits on the economic growth for Turkey. Our results from cointegration and causality tests show that for Turkey for the period of 1950 2001, nominal government deficits led to increases in the monetary base only in the short run, causing inflation both in the short and the long run. The effect of inflation on real GNP growth is weak and in the reverse direction.

Öz

Cari hükümet açıkları ve enflasyon arasında pozitif bir ilişkinin varlığı genellikle kabul edilmiş bir olgudur. Hükümet açıkları birçok sebepten dolayı parasal büyüme ile finanse edilebilir; ancak sebep ne olursa olsun sonuç enflasyonda bir artıştır. Bu da kaynak dağılımı, işgücü piyasası ve firma kararlarına ters etkileri nedeniyle reel GSMH’daki büyümeyi negatif olarak etkileyebilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, cari hükümet açıkları ve enflasyon, enflasyon ve reel GSMH’daki büyüme arasındaki iki bağlantıyı birleştirmek ve Türkiye’de cari hükümet açıklarının ekonomik büyümeye etkisini göstermektir. Eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testlerini sonuçları, Türkiye’de 1950-2001 yılları arasında cari hükümet açıklarının sadece kısa dönemde parasal tabanda artışlara yol açarak, hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde enflasyona neden olduğunu göstermektedir. Enflasyonun reel GSMH büyümesine etkisi ise zayıf ve ters yöndedir

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