YENİ KEYNESYEN MAKRO EKONOMİK BİR MODEL: TÜRKİYE UYGULAMASI

Öz

1990’ların sonunda iktisat yazınında Yeni NeoKlasik Sentez ya da Yeni Keynesyen Makro Model (YKMM) olarak adlandırılan bir uzlaşma meydana gelmiştir. Bu uzlaşmanın temel özelliği, Yeni Klasik, Reel İş Çevrim Kuramı ve Yeni Keynesyen İktisatın fikirlerinin sentezinden oluşmasıdır. YKMM bir enflasyon denklemi, bir toplam talep denklemi ve bir para politikası kuralından meydana gelmektedir. Bu çalışmada YKMM’i tahmin etmek ve bu modelin Türkiye ekonomisindeki dalgalanmaları açıklamada kullanışlı olup olmadığını belirlemek için tam bilgi maksimum olabilirlik (The Full Information Maximum Likelihood, FIML) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen ilk bulgular, YKMM’in Türkiye ekonomisindeki dalgalanmaları açıklamakta kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yeni keynesyen makro model, taylor kuralı, parasal politika, tam bilgi maksimum olabilirlik yöntemi

A New Keynesian Macro Economic Model: Application to Turkish Economy

Öz

A new consensus in macroeconomics called the New Neo-Classical Synthesis or New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model (NKMM) emerged at the end of the 1990s. The fundamental feature of this consensus is that it is formed by the synthesis of ideas from the New Classical, Real Business Cycle, and New Keynesian Models. The NKMM consists of an inflation equation, an aggregate demand equation, and a monetary policy rule. In this paper, the full information maximum likelihood (FIML) method is used to estimate the NKMM and determine whether it is useful in explaining the fluctuations in the Turkish economy. The first implications show that the NKMM can be used to explain the fluctuations in the Turkish economy

Anahtar Kelimeler

• The new keynesian macroeconomic model, taylor rule, monetary policy, full information maximum likelihood method

Kaynakça

1. Aklan, N. ve Nargeleçekenler, M. (2008), “Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 63-2, pp. 22-42.
2. Arestis, P. ve Sawyer, M. (2003), “Inflation Targeting: A Critical Ap- praisal”, The Levy Economic Institute, Working Paper, Erişim:http:// www.levy.org/pubs/wp388.pdf
3. Arestis, P. ve Sawyer, M. (2008), “A Critical Reconsideration of the Foun- dations of Monetary Policy in the New Consensus Macroeconomics Framework”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 32, pp. 761-119
4. Blanchard, O.(2000), “What Do We Know about Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell Did Not?”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol:115, No.4, pp.1375-1409.
5. Blanchard, O.(2000), “The State of Macro”, NBER Working Paper, No:14259, Erişim: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14259
6. Calvo, G.A.(1983), “Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Frame- work”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, pp.383-398.
7. Carlin, W. ve Soskice, D.(2005),”The 3-Equation New Keynesian Mod- el-A Graphical Exposition”, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Ber- keley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1)
8. Carlin, W. ve Soskice, D.(2006), Macroeconomics: Imperfections, Insti- tutions and Policies, Oxford University Press.

9. Cho, S. ve Moreno, A. (2003), ”A Structural Estimation and Interpre- tation of the New Keynesian Macro Model”, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Navara, Working Paper, No:14/03
10. Cho, S. ve Moreno, A. (2006), “A Small-Sample Study of the New-Key- nesian Macro Model”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.38, No.6, 1461-1481
11. Clarida,R., Gali, J. ve Gertler, M.,(1997), “Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 6254, pp. 1-47.
12. Clarida,R., Gali, J. ve Gertler, M.,(1999), “The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol:XXXVII, pp. 1661-1707.
13. Clarida,R., Gali, J. ve Gertler, M.,(2000), “Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.115, No.1, pp.147-180.
14. Davidson, R.ve MacKinnon, C.G. (2004), Econometric Theory and Methods, Oxford University Press.
15. Dennis, R. (2005), “Specifying and Estimating New Keynesian Models with Instrument Rules and Optimal Monetary Policies”, Federal Re- serve Bank of San Francisco Working Papers 2004-17.
16. Dixon, H.D.(2008), “New Keynesian Macroeconomics”, from the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition,2008, Edited by S.N. Durlauf and L.E. Blume.
17. Fisher, S.(1977), “Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.85, No.11.
18. Gali, J.(2002), “New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle”, Nber Working Paper, No:8767.
19. Gali,J. (2009), “The New Keynesian Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis: Lessons and New Directions”, Erişim:http://www.crei.cat/ people/gali/jg09cfs.pdf(25.02.2010)
20. Gali, J. ve Gertler, M., (1999), “Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econo- metric Analysis”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 44, pp.195-222.
21. Gali, J. Ve Getrler, M.(2007), “Macroeconomic Modelling for Monetary Policy Evaluation”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.21, No.4,pp. 25-45
22. Goodfried, M. ve King, R.G. (1997), “The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy”, Erişim:http://www.richmondfed. org/publications/research/working_papers/1998/pdf/wp98-5.pdf (15.01.2009).
23. Gordon, R.J. (1990), “What is New Keynesian Economics?”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol:XXXVIII, pp.115-1171.
24. Greene,W.H.,(2003), Econometric Analysis, Pearson Education Inter- national.
25. Henry, S.G.B. ve Pagan, A.R.(2004), “The Econometrics of the New Keynesian Policy Model: Introduction”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.66, Supplement, pp.581-607
26. Hodrick, R. ve Edward C. P.(1997), “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 29, no.1, pp. 1-16
27. Kesriyeli, M. ve Yalçın, C. (1998), “Taylor Kuralı ve Türkiye Uygulaması Üzerine Bir Not”, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası araştırma Genel Müdürlüğü, Tartışma Tebliği No: 9802.
28. Mankiw, G.N.(1990), “A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol:XXVII, pp.1645-1660.
29. Mankiw, G.N.(1991),“The Reincarnation of Keynesian Economics”, Nber Working Papers, No.3885.
30. Ongan, H. (2004), “Enflasyon Hedeflemesi ve Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Örneği”, Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları, Kırkbeşinci Seri, pp. 1-12.
31. Oğuz, H.(2008), “Yeni Neoklasik Sentez ve Optimal Parasal Politikalar”, Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt 26, Sayı 1, s.1-35
32. Özdemir, M.(2008), “Yeni Neo-Klasik Sentez: Makro İktisatta Yeni Bir Uzlaşmaya Doğru”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 2008,19(66):95-117
33. Raven, M.O and Uhlig, H.(2002): “On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for the frequency in observations” The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 84, no. 2 pp. 371 – 376.
34. Samuelson, P.(1966), İktisat, Çev. Demirgil Y. İstanbul : Menteş Kita- bevi, 1966.
35. Snowdon, B., Vane, H. ve Wynarczyk, P. (1995), A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics: An Introduction to Competing Schools of Thought, Edward Elgar Press.
36. Taylor, J.B.(1980), “Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol.88, No.1, pp.1-23.
37. Taylor,J.B.(1999), “Staggered Price and Wage Setting in Macroeconom- ics”, Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol:1, Edited by J.B.Taylor and M. Woodford.
38. Woodford, M.(2003), Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy, Princeton University Press