Indirect Taxes, Social Expenditures and Poverty: What Linkage?

Öz

We shed light into the empirical relationship between social expenditures and poverty for Turkey over the period 19752005. We estimate first a series for the headcount index which is not exactly known due to measurement problems in countries such as Turkey, where the degree of unrecorded economy is higher. For this purpose, employing Kalman filter technique, we use social expenditures, public income and interest payments in our model. Then, cointegration analysis is used to investigate the relationship between the estimated headcount index and the share of indirect taxes in the total tax income. The study concludes that: first, the portion of poor population increases and it reaches 17.6 percent in 2005; second, social expenditures increase thanks to the rise in public income which is realized by the relative increase in the share of indirect taxes in total tax revenues. This policy impedes in the long run poverty reduction; and third, the increase in this share leads to a higher headcount index

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Poverty, taxation, kalman filter, Turkey

Dolaylı Vergiler, Sosyal Harcamalar ve Fakirlik: Nasıl Bir İlişki Olabilir?

Öz

Bu çalışmamiz 1975-2005 zaman dilimi dahilinde Türkiye’deki sosyal harcamalar ve fakirlik arasındaki ampirik ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Bu inceleme için standart olmayan bir metot kullanmayı tercih ettik. Öncelikle Türkiye’deki kayıtdışı ekonomi gözönüne alındığında ölçme problemleri yaşanılan kişibaşı endeksini veren zaman serisini kestirdik.Bu kestirimi yapabilmek için Kalman Filtresi tekniğini temel alarak, sosyal harcamalar, kamu gelirleri ve kamu borç stoğu faiz ödemeleri serilerinin veri kabul edildiği bir stokastik denklem takımını kullandık. Birim kök analizi neticesinde birinci derece bütünleşik olduğuna karar verdiğimiz bu serilerin yardımı ile yine birinci derece bütünleşik seri olduğunu kestirdiğimiz kişibaşı endeks serisi ve dolaylı vergilerin toplam vergiler içindeki payını veren birinci derece bütünleşik seri arasında ilişki olup olmadığını inceledik. Bu inceleme için eş-bütünleme testlerini kullandık. Çalışmalarımız neticesinde, fakir nüfusun oranının artarak 2005 yılı itibarı ile %17,6 ya ulaştığını, sosyal harcamaların da kamu gelirlerine ve dolaylı vergilerin payına paralel biçimde arttığını gözlemledik. Söz konusu zaman dilimdeki politikaların fakirliği azaltmada yeterince etkili olamadığı ve dolaylı vergilerdeki artışın bu etkinliği azalttığı sonucuna vardık

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yoksulluk, vergilendirme, kalman fi ltresi, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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