Do Exchange Rates Affect Inflation? Evidence from Emerging Market Economies

Öz

After the 1980s, chronic inflation in Turkey has shaken confidence in the domestic currency, and thus operating debit-credit transactions through dollars. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of exchange rate pass-through into inflation in both Turkey and emerging market economies that were highly dollarized and shifted to a flexible exchange rate regime, together with inflation targeting policy in an attempt to switch to the advanced economy. This paper also studies whether stabilization programs under flexible exchange rate regimes and particularly inflation targeting policy may have eliminated dollarization in the periods 1995-2001 and 2002- 2010.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• De-dollarization, inflation targeting, exchange rate pass-through

Döviz Kurları Enflasyonu Etkiler Mi? Gelişmekte Olan Piyasa Ekonomilerinden Ispat

Öz

Türkiye’de 1980 sonrasında görülen kronik enflasyon ülke parasına olan güvenin azalmasına yol açarak borç alacak ilişkilerinin döviz üzerinden gerçekleşmesine neden olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı güçlü ekonomiye geçiş programı çerçevesinde uygulanan enflasyon hedeflemesi politikası sonucunda geçiş etkisinin, enflasyon üzerinde ne derece belirgin olduğunu saptamaya çalışmaktır. Benzer bir etki, geçmişte dolarizasyon baskısında olan ve daha sonra esnek kur sistemine geçen diğer gelişen piyasa ekonomileri için de incelenecektir. Bu sayede esnek kur sistemi altında uygulanan istikrar politikalarının ve özellikle enflasyon hedeflemesi politikasının dolarizasyon olgusunu azaltıp azaltmadığı anlamaya çalışılacaktır. Sözkonusu çalışma 1995-2001 ve 20022010 olmak üzere iki ayrı dönemi kapsamaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ters dolarizasyon, enflasyon hedeflemesi politikası, döviz kuru geçiş etkisi

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