Dynamics of Profitability in the Turkish Banking Industry

Öz

Dynamics of profitability have important implications for the market structure and competition in the banking industry. There is a well-established literature on this issue comprising non-banking industries, however research on banking is comparatively small. Moreover, there is a lack of research comprising the dynamics of profitability in the developing banking industries. Hence, this paper focuses on the Turkish banking industry to analyze both the dynamics and determinants of profitability in the Turkish banking industry over the period 2006:4-2012:2. First, two competing hypotheses, persistence of profit and competitive environment hypotheses are tested using a dynamic panel data model. Variables representing bank size, credit risk, managerial efficiency, financial soundness, market competition, monetary policy and economic freedom are also incorporated in this model to investigate the determinants of bank profitability. System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) is used to estimate this dynamic model. The evidence from the findings indicate the validity of the persistence of profit hypothesis. Moreover, bank profitability has been mostly affected by the capital ratio which could have further implications through the Basel III period. The results also indicate positive impact of improvement in financial soundness of banks on profitability

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Profitability, persistence of profits, competitive environment, Turkish banking industry, dynamic panel estimation

Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Karlılığın Dinamikleri

Öz

Karlılık dinamiklerinin bankacılık sektöründe piyasa yapısı ve rekabet üzerinde önemli etkileri bulunmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda banka-dışı endüstrileri ele alan kapsamlı bir literatür bulunurken bankacılık endüstrisine ilişkin çalışmalar oldukça sınırlıdır. Dahası, gelişmekte olan bankacılık sektörlerine ilişkin çalışmalar da kısıtlıdır. Bu doğrultuda, bu çalışmanın amacı 2006:4-2012:2 döneminde Türk bankacılık sektöründe karlılığın dinamiklerini ve belirleyenlerini incelemektir. Öncelikle karların kalıcılığı ve rekabetçi çevre hipotezleri bir dinamik panel veri modeli aracılığıyla sınanmaktadır. Banka büyülüğü, kredi riski, yönetimsel etkinlik, finansal sağlamlık, piyasa rekabeti, para politkası ve ekonomik özgürlük değişkenleri aracılığıyla banka karlılığının belirleyenleri araştırılmaktadır. Oluşturulan dinamik panel veri modeli, Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi (SGMY) kullanılarak tahmin edilmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular karların kalıcılığı hipotezinin geçerliliğini desteklemektedir. Bunun yanı sıra banka karlılığının en çok Basel III sürecinde de önemli rol oynayabilecek sermaye oranından etkilendiği görülmektedir. Finansal sağlamlığın banka karlılığı üzerindeki olumlu etkisi de çalışmanın bir diğer önemli bulgusu olarak öne çıkmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Karlılık, karların kalıcılığı, rekabetçi çevre, Türk bankacılık sektörü, dinamik panel tahmini

Kaynakça

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