Export and Exchange Rate Volatility Relationship in Turkish Economy

Öz

This study fundamentally examines the effects of exchange rate volatility on export. The data consists of Turkey’s five most prominent export partners Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom, and USA during a period between January, 2002 and November 2014 and it has been analyzed by the ARDL bound testing approach. In addition, the effects of real exchange rate and  industrial production index on export have been scrutinized. Findings show that contrary to theoritical expactations, exchange rate volatility has no statistically significal effect on export neither in short term or long term

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Export, Exchange Rate Volatility, ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Türkiye Ekonomisinde İhracat ve Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı İlişkisi

Öz

Bu çalışmada temel olarak döviz kuru oynaklığının ihracat üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Türkiye’nin en çok ihracat yaptığı beş ülke olan Almanya, Fransa, İtalya, İngiltere ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin Ocak 2002 – Kasım 2014 dönemi verileri, ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca reel döviz kuru ve ihracat yapılan ülkelerin endüstriyel üretim endeksinin de ihracata etkisi incelenmiştir. Ulaşılan sonuçlar teorik beklentilere karşın döviz kuru oynaklığının ne kısa ne de uzun dönemde ihracat üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi olmadığı yönündedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracat, Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Kaynakça

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