Industrial Imports of Turkey From the European Union Countries and From the World : A Comparative Panel Data Analysis

Öz

In this study, using panel data analysis, Turkeys industrial sectors’ import demand from the European Union countries and from the World is compared. Estimation method is Breitung two step estimator. Estimation results show that, Turkey’s imports from EU countries and from the World exhibit in some aspects similar, in some aspects different characteristics. As expected, increases in GDP and investment expenditures increases industrial sectors’ imports both from the EU and from the World with similar elasticities. Imports of Turkey from EU countries declined in the global crises of 2008, even after effect of other factors are accounted for. Increases in import price variables increases value of imports in both equations. This is largely due to the fact that, in response to price increases, Turkey can not decrease her import volume in proportion. While increasing consumption expenditure is not an important factor affecting imports from the EU, it is a significant factor positively affecting total imports

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Import, Panel Data, Industrial Sectors, Breitung Two Step Estimator

TÜRKİYE’NİN AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ÜLKELERİNDEN VE DÜNYADAN SANAYİ ÜRÜNLERİ İTHALATI: KARŞILAŞTIRMALI PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin sanayi ürünleri ithalatında en büyük paya sahip bölge olan Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinden yapılan sanayi ürünleri ithalatının talep denklemi ile toplam sanayi ithalatı talep denklemi panel veri yöntemleri kullanılarak karşılaştırılmıştır. Tahmin yöntemi Breitung iki basamaklı tahmin edicidir (two step estimator). Tahmin sonuçları, Türkiye’nin AB ülkelerinden ithalatı ile dünyadan ithalatının çeşitli benzer ve farklı özelliklere sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Beklendiği gibi GSYH ve yatırımlar hem AB ülkelerinden, hem dünyadan ithalatı benzer oranlarda artırmaktadır. 2008 krizinde Türkiye’nin AB ülkelerinden ithalatı diğer faktörlerin etkileri arındırıldığında dahi düşmüştür. İthalat fiyat göstergelerindeki artışlar her iki denklemde de ithalat değerini artırmaktadır. Bu durum, fiyat artışları karşında Türkiye’nin ithalatını miktar bazında aynı oranda düşürememesinden kaynaklanmaktadır. Tüketim harcamalarındaki artış AB’den ithalatı etkileyen bir faktör değilken, toplam ithalatı pozitif yönde etkileyen faktörlerden biridir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İthalat, Panel Veri, Sanayi Sektörleri, Breitung İki Basamaklı Tahminc

Kaynakça

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