Efficiency of Regulations Regarding Consumer Credits In Macro-Prudential Framework: Case of Turkey

Öz

Before 2007-2008 global financial crisis, regulation system was based on the assumption that making each bank safe would make the banking system safe. After the crisis, it came out that macro prudential perspective was to be integrated and existing micro prudential regulation system should be supported. In this context, banking sector’s procyclicality and by this behavior leading the way to increasing systemic risks has put swiftly countercyclical financial regulations on top of the agenda. This paper is aimed to test the effect of regulation changes made by Turkish banking authority (BDDK), put in effect in 2011 and 2013, in order to stabilize increase in consumer credits. Models established for this aim had estimated by using Ordinary Least Squers (OLS) and Generalized Method of Moments estimators. Evidences obtained from estimates have shown that countercyclical regulation changes has a significant restricting effect on consumer credits as admired by Turkish banking authority

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial crisis, micro and macro prudential rules, systemic risk, procyclicality, countercyclical financial regulations

Makro İhtiyati Tedbirler Çerçevesinde Tüketici Kredilerine İlişkin Düzenlemelerin Etkinliği: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

2007-2008 küresel krizi öncesi düzenleme sistemi bankaların tek tek güvenli olmasının tüm sistemi güvenli hale getirdiği varsayımı üzerine kurulmuştu. Bu durum küresel finansal kriz sonrası değişmiş ve makro ihtiyati yaklaşımların sisteme entegre edilmesi ve var olan mikro ihtiyati düzenleme sisteminin desteklenmesi gerektiği ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu kapsamda, bankacılık sektörünün döngü yönlü hareket etmesi ve bu davranışıyla sistemik riskleri arttırması döngü karşıtı finansal düzenlemeleri hızla gündemin ön sıralarına taşımıştır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de tüketici kredilerinin artış hızını kontrol altına almak maksadıyla 2011 ve 2013 yıllarında BDDK tarafından yapılan düzenleme değişikliklerinin etkinliğini sınamak amacıyla yapılmıştır. Bu amaçla kurulan modeller En Küçük Kareler (EKK) ve Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi (GMY) tahmin edicileri kullanılarak tahminlenmiştir. Yapılan tahminlerden elde edilen bulgular; döngü karşıtı düzenleme değişikliklerinin, BDDK’nın istediği şekilde, tüketici kredileri üzerinde sınırlayıcı anlamlı bir etkisinin olduğunu göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal kriz, mikro ve makro ihtiyati kurallar, sistemik risk, döngü yönlülük, döngü karşıtı finansal düzenlemeler

Kaynakça

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