The Relation between Monetary Policy Preferences and Unemployment Rates

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the relation between CBRT’s monetary policy preferences and unemployment rates for the periods of 1999-2014. We consider Taylor rule as a monetary policy rule and employ Markov regime-switching model to determine the periods of “active” and “passive” monetary policy regimes. After that, we find higher unemployment rates in the periods of active monetary policy regime by using propensity score matching. These findings suggest that the CBRT should conduct monetary policy mix where it is considered not only inflation rates but also output gap to provide economic stability

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Monetary Policy, Taylor Rule Unemployment Rates, Markov Regime Switching Model.

Para Politikası Tercihleri İle İşsizlik Oranları Arasındaki İlişki

Öz

Bu çalışmada TCMB tarafından uygulanan para politikası tercihleri ile işsizlik oranları arasındaki ilişki 1999 ile 2014 dönemi için analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmamızda para politikası kuralı olarak Taylor kuralı dikkate alınmış ve Markov rejim değişim modeli kullanarak aktif ve pasif para politikasının uygulandığı dönemler belirlenmiştir. Ardından, eğilim skoru eşleştirme yöntemi kullanarak, para politikasının aktif olarak uygulandığı dönemlerde işsizlik oranlarının daha yüksek olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu sonuçlar, TCMB’nin ekonomik istikrarı sağlaması açısından para politikası tercihlerinde enflasyon oranının yanında çıktı açığını dikkate alan politika karmasını tercih etmesinin uygun olacağı anlamına gelmektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Para Politikası, Taylor Kuralı, İşsizlik Oranları, Markov rejim değişim modeli

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