Labor Supply Elasticity of Turkish Labor Market: 2003 – 2011

Öz

This paper examines the wage elasticity of aggregated labor supply of Turkish households for the period of 2003 – 2011 employing the Lucas&Rapping (1969) Model. In their original work, nonwage income variable is excluded from the estimated model. Nonwage income variable of the theoretical model which is left out in the estimated model is reintroduced to the estimated model using a different methodology. A Pseudo panel data set is generated by aggregating household level data to form cohorts consist of sequential vigintiles by the nonwage income of the households using the Turkish Household Budget Surveys. This approach enables the cross sectional data to become a pseudo panel and hence benefits from the advantages of a panel data set. On the other hand, whether the nonwage income in Turkey being one of the determinants of the labor supply or not is tested by the statistical significance of the model. The wage elasticity of the labor supply (intensive margin) is estimated utilizing Lucas & Rapping (1969) aggregated labor supply model using the pseudo panel data. The elimination of the fixed effects of each cohort by the appropriate estimation method achieves the labor supply elasticity excluding the nonwage income effect. The study reveals the fact that the model estimated with aggregated data of households as sequential vigintiles of their nonwage income, provides a statistically significant estimation of the wage elasticity of the labor supply in Turkey. In this context, the wage elasticity of labor supply is estimated with Arellano and Bover / Blundell and Bond system GMM estimator, using the Lucas&Rapping (1969) model and it is found to be as small as 0,06

Anahtar Kelimeler

• wage elasticity of labor supply, pseudo panel, intensive marigin, nonwage income

Türkiye İşgücü Piyasası’nın İşgücü Arz Esnekliği: 2003 – 2011

Öz

Çalışmada, Türkiye’deki hanelerin toplulaştırılmış işgücü arzlarının ücret esnekliği 2003 – 2011 yılları için Lucas ve Rapping (1969) modeli ile tahmin edilmektedir. Lucas ve Rapping (1969) çalışmalarında, ücret dışı geliri bir değişken olarak tahmin edilen modelin dışında bırakmaktadır. Kuramsal modelden dışlanan ücret dışı gelir değişkeni çalışmamız kapsamında modele farklı bir yöntem kullanılarak dahil edilmektedir. Bu çerçevede, TÜİK Hane Halkı Bütçe Anketleri mikro verileri ücret dışı gelir düzeylerine göre %5’lik sıralı gruplar halinde toplulaştırılarak yapay gruplar oluşturulmakta ve yapay panel veri seti elde edilmektedir. Bu yolla, yatay kesit veriler panel veri haline getirilmekte ve panel veri setlerinin mümkün kıldığı tahmin avantajlarından faydalanılmaktadır. Diğer taraftan, Türkiye’de ücret dışı gelir düzeyinin, işgücü arzını belirleyen etkenler arasında yer alıp almadığı da ücret dışı gelir grupları için oluşturulan modelin anlamlılığı ile sınanmaktadır. Elde edilen veri seti kullanılarak Lucas ve Rapping (1969) toplulaştırılmış işgücü arzı modeli ile Türkiye için çalışılan saat olarak işgücü arz esnekliği (yoğunluk marjı) tahmini yapılmaktadır. Oluşturulan 20 adet ücret dışı gelir grubunun her birine özgü birimsel sabit etkilerin, kullanılan uygun tahmin yöntemi yardımıyla arındırılması, ücret dışı gelir etkisinden arındırılmış model ile işgücü arz esnekliğine ulaşılabilmesini mümkün kılmaktadır. Çalışma sonucunda, ücret dışı gelire göre yapılan hane toplulaştırmasının Türkiye’nin işgücü arzı ücret esnekliğinin tahmini açısından anlamlı olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Bu çerçevede haneler itibarıyla toplulaştırılmış işgücü arzının ücret esnekliği, Lucas ve Rapping (1969)’in dinamik makro işgücü arzı modeli kullanılarak Arellano ve Bover / Blundell ve Bond sistem GMM ile tahmin edilmekte ve esnekliğin oldukça küçük bir değer aldığı (0,06) sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• işgücü arzının ücret esnekliği, yapay panel, yoğunluk marjı, ücret dışı gelir

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