Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları (DYSY) ile ihracat arasındaki ilişkinin ikame ve tamamlayıcılık bağlamında analiz edilmesidir. Bu amaç çerçevesinde, Türkiye’nin
2001-2012 döneminde 82 ülkeye ilişkin altı fasıllı ürün kategorilerine ait ihracatı Kimura ve Obashi (2010) ve Obashi (2010) tarafından geliştirilen yöntem ile ara mal ve nihai mal olarak ayrıştırılmıştır. Ardından, DYSY ile ihracat arasındaki ilişki çekim modeli ile tespit edilmiştir. Bütün analizler toplam mal ihracatının yanı sıra nihai mal ve ara mal ihracatı için de yapılmıştır. Çekim modeline ilişkin ampirik sonuçlar, DYSY ile nihai mal ile toplam mal ihracatı arasında tamamlayıcı bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. DYSY ile ara mal ihracatı arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Ampirik çalışmanın ikinci bölümünde nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Nedensellik analizine ilişkin sonuçlar DYSY ile ihracat arasında çift yönlü nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları
• Parçalanma
• Dış Kaynak Kullanımı
• Panel Veri Analizi

The Relationship between Turkish Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Exports

Öz

The aim of the study is to analyze the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and export with the context of substitution and complementarity . For this aim, Turkey’s export data set composing HS-6 digit product level statics for period 2001 to 2012 with 82 countries has been decomposed into intermediate goods and final goods export by using the method developed by Kimura and Obashi (2010) and Obashi (2010). Then, the relationship between country - level outward FDI and export is analyzed with the gravity model. All analyzes have been performed for the exports of the total goods as well as the exports of final and intermediate goods. The empirical results for the gravity model show that there is a complementary relationship between FDI and final goods export as well as total goods export. There is no statistically significant relationship between FDI and intermediate goods export. In the second part of empirical analysis, causality test is performed. The causality results show that there is a two-way causality between FDI and export.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Direct Investment
• Fragmentation
• Outsourcing
• panel data analysis

Kaynakça

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