Petrol Fiyatlarındaki ve Nominal Kurdaki Dalgalanmaların Petrole Bağımlı Bazı Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkileri

Öz

Bu çalışma, petrol fiyatlarının reel ekonomik büyüme üzerideki etkilerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma, büyük ölçüde petrol ithalatında dışa bağımlı gelişmekte olan altı ülke temel alınarak yapılmıştır. Kişi başına petrol tüketimi bakımından da düşük orta düzeylerde bulunan bu altı ülke şunlardır: Şili, Filipinler, Polonya, Güney Afrika, Tayland ve Türkiye. Çalışmada kullanılan üç aylık veri seti Ocak 1996-Aralık 2016 arasındaki dönemi kapsamaktadır. Petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmayı temsili olarak göstermek için, benzin ve dizelin ortalama pompa fiyatları ile birlikte, günlük ham petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmadan yola çıkarak hesaplanan petrol fiyatlarının üç aylık varyasyon katsayısı kullanılmıştır. Panel veri yöntemi kullanılarak yapılan tahminler şunları ortaya koymaktadır: Petrol fiyatlarının hareketlendiği dönemlerde aynı zamanda döviz kurları da dalgalanmakta; bu durum GSYİH büyüme oranlarında belirli bir değişim olacağına işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca petrol fiyatlarındaki ve döviz kurundaki dalgalanmalar, üç aylık gecikme dönemi sonrasında ele alınan gelişmekte olan ülkelerin GSYİH büyüme oranları üzerinde aksi yönde etki bırakmaktadır. Sonuçlar; petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların kurlardaki dalgalanmaların belirli bir kısmını oluşturduğunu, bu dalgalanmaların zamanla GSYİH büyüme oranlarını da etkilediği düşüncesini desteklemektedir. Ortaya çıkan bu sonuçlar da ekonomik aktivitenin petrol fiyatlarındaki hareketliliğe karşı uyum sağlayacağı stratejilerin geliştirilmesinde yol gösterici olabilir.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme,Kur ve Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Dalgalanma,Net Petrol İthalatçısı Olan Ülkeler,Panel Tahmini

The Effects of Oil Prices and Exchange Rates Movements on Economic Growth of the Selected Emerging Oil Dependent Countries

Öz

This study aims to investigate the impacts of volatility of oil prices on the real economic growth. Six heavily oil importer emerging market countries are explored in the study. They are also lower middle oil consumer countries, namely Chile, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. The quarterly dataset covers the period January 1996- December 2016. To gauge volatility of oil prices, quarterly coefficient of variation for oil prices derived by average daily crude oil prices is used as a proxy, together with the gasoline and diesel fuel average pump prices. The results of panel estimation reveal the following findings: Volatility of oil prices concurrently moves with the volatility of foreign exchange rates, which in turn leads to a change in the GDP growth rates. Moreover, for a three month lag, movements of oil prices and exchange rates adversely affect the GDP growth rate for the emerging oil importing countries under investigation. Thus, these results supports the idea that oil price movements make up some part of the volatiliy of exchange rates and gradually affect the GDP growth rates. These results might be helpful for improving adjustment strategies of the economic activity against oil price movements.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth,Volatility of Oil Prices and Exchange Rates,Net Oil Importer Emerging Countries,Panel Estimation

Kaynakça

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