THIRLWALL YASASI: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ, 1982-2008

Year 2010, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 443 - 463, 01.05.2010

Rahmi Yamak Zehra Abdioğlu

Abstract

Bu çalışmada ödemeler dengesi kısıtlı büyüme oranı olarak da bilinen Thirlwall yasası, sermaye hareketleri ve dış borç servisi dikkate alınarak 1982-2008 dönemi itibariyle Türkiye için Kalman filtre tahmin yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, Thirlwall ve Hussain (1982) ve Elliott ve Rhodd (1999)’un ödemeler dengesi kısıtlı büyüme oranı gerçekleşen büyüme oranının iyi bir tahmincisidir

Keywords

Ödemeler dengesi kısıdı, Ekonomik büyüme, Sermaye girişi, Borç servisi

THIRLWALL LAW: THE CASE OF TURKEY, 1982-2008

Abstract

In this study, the balance-of-payments constrained economic growth known as Thirlwall's law was tested to include capital flows and debt servicing for Turkey at the period of 1982-2008 using Kalman filter estimation method. According to the results, Thirlwall and Hussain’s (1982) and Elliott and Rhodd’s (1999) the balance-of-payments constrained economic growth rate is the best indicator of actual growth rate

Keywords

Balance-of-payments constraint, Economic growth, Capital flows, Debt servicing

References

• ATEŞOĞLU, H. S. (1993): “Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth: Evidence from the United States”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 15:507-514.
• ATEŞOĞLU, H. S. (1994): “Exports, Capital Flows, Relative Prices, and Economic Growth in Canada”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 16:289- 297.
• BAIRAM, E. I. (1990): “The Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier Revisited”, Applied Economics, 22:711-718.
• BAIRAM, E. I. and DEMPSTER, G. J. (1991): “The Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and Economic Growth in Asian Countries”, Applied Economics, 23: 1719-1724.
• ELİTOK, S. P. and CAMPBELL, A. (2008): “The Balance of Payments as a Constraint on Turkey’s Growth: 1960-2004”, Department of Working Paper Series, 13:1-36.
• ELLIOTT, D. R. and RHODD, R. (1999): “Explaining Growth Rate Differences in Highly Indebted Countries: An Extension to Thirlwall and Hussain”, Applied Economics, 31:1145-1148.
• HANSEN, J. D. and KVEDARAS, V. (2004): “Balance of Payments Constrained Economic Growth in the Baltic’s”, Ekonomika, 65:1-10.
• HOLLAND, M., VIEIRA, F. V. and CANUTO, O. (2002): “Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint in Latin America”, Working Papers, 1-20.
• KALMAN, R. E. (1960): “A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems”, Journal of Basic Engineering, 82:34-45.
• McCOMBIE, J. S. L. and THIRLWALL, A. P. (1997): “The Dynamic Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Demand-Orientated Approach to Economic Growth: An Evaluation”, International Review of Applied Economics, 11:5-26.
• McGREGOR, P. and SWALES, J. K. (1985): “Professor Thirlwall and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth”, Applied Economics, 17:17-32.
• McGREGOR, P. and SWALES, J. K. (1986): “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: A Rejoinder to Professor Thirlwall”, Applied Economics, 18:1265-1274.
• McGREGOR, P. and SWALES, J. K. (1991): “Thirlwall’s Law and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: Further Comment on the Debate”, Applied Economics, 23:9-20.
• PERRATON, J. (2003): “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An Examination of Thirlwall’s Hypothesis”, International Review of Applied Economics, 17:1-22.
• RAZMI, A. (2005): “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India”, Working Paper, 5:1-31.
• SY AN, P. (2007): “Economic Growth and Balance of Payments Constraint in Vietnam”, Vietnam Economic Management Review, 2:57-68.
• THIRLWALL, A. P. and HUSSAIN, M. N. (1982): “The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries”, Oxford Economic Papers, 34:498-510.
• THIRLWALL, A. P. (1979): “The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 28:45-53.
• THIRLWALL, A. P. (1986): “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: A Reply to McGregor and Swales”, Applied Economics, 18:1259-1263.