HAM PETROL FİYATLARININ YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI İLE TAHMİNİ

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 559 - 573, 01.05.2010

Serkan Taştan Ferhan Demirkoparan Oğuz Kaynar

Öz

Ekonomide hemen her sektör, doğrudan ya da dolaylı olarak petrole bağımlıdır. Bu nedenle petrol piyasasında ve dolayısıyla fiyatında ortaya çıkan değişiklikler, oluşturdukları zincirleme reaksiyonlar aracılığı ile hem ülke, hem de dünya ekonomisi üzerinde çeşitli etkiler yaratmaktadır. Karmaşık dinamiklerinden dolayı, oldukça değişken ve etkileşimli bir yapıya sahip petrol piyasasında geleceğe yönelik etkili planlar yapmak için doğru ve güvenilir tahminlere gereksinim vardır. Bu amaçla çalışmamızda ham petrol fiyatlarını tahmin etmek için klasik zaman serileri analiz yöntemlerinden ARIMA ile veri seti içerisindeki karmaşık ilişkileri başarıyla modelleyebilen son yıllarda zaman serisi analizinde sıkça yer alan MLP ve RBF yapay sinir ağları kullanılmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

YSA, MLP, RBF, ARIMA, Ham Petrol, Tahmin

CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Öz

Almost every sector in economy is connected with oil directly or indirectly. Consequently, the changes on petrol industry, and thus, on petrol prices create various effects on both country and world economy by means of chaining reactions turning up. For making affective plans for the future about petrol industry which has a considerably unsteady and interactive structure because of its complex dynamics, straight and confidential predictions are needed. So, classical time series analysis method ARIMA and MLP and RBF Neural Networks which are able to model complex relationships in data set and have a large part in time series analysis recently are used in this study

Anahtar Kelimeler

ANN, MLP, RBF, ARIMA, Crude oil, Forecasting

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