Siyasi İstikrarsizlik ve Ekonomik Performans: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2011, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 73 - 80, 01.02.2011

Ünal Arslan

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Johansen (1988) eşbütünleşme ve Hata Düzeltme Modeli (HDM) testlerini kullanarak 1987-2007 yılları arasıda Türkiye’de siyasi istikrarsızlık ve gayri safi yurt içi hasıla (GSYİH) arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Eşbütünleşme analizi, siyasi istikrarsızlık ve gayri safi yurt içi hâsıla (GSYİH) arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkiye işaret etmektedir. Buna ek olarak, Hata Düzeltme Modeli (HDM) gayri safi yurt içi hâsıladan siyasi istikrarsızlığa doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını göstermektedir

Keywords

İktisadi büyüme, siyasi istikrarsızlık, eşbütünleşme testi

Political Instability and Economic Performance: the Case of Turkey

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between political instability and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Turkey, covering the period 1987-2007 using Johansen (1988) cointegration and Error Correction Model (ECM) tests. The result of the cointegration analysis indicates that there is a long-run relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and political instability. Additionally, the Error Correction Model suggests an uni-directional causal relationship from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to political instability

Keywords

Economic growth, political instability, cointegration test

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