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Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki

Yıl 2018, Cilt 18, Sayı 3, 457 - 468, 01.07.2018

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları (DYSY) ile ihracat arasındaki ilişkinin ikame ve tamamlayıcılık bağlamında analiz edilmesidir. Bu amaç çerçevesinde, Türkiye’nin
2001-2012 döneminde 82 ülkeye ilişkin altı fasıllı ürün kategorilerine ait ihracatı Kimura ve Obashi (2010) ve Obashi (2010) tarafından geliştirilen yöntem ile ara mal ve nihai mal olarak ayrıştırılmıştır. Ardından, DYSY ile ihracat arasındaki ilişki çekim modeli ile tespit edilmiştir. Bütün analizler toplam mal ihracatının yanı sıra nihai mal ve ara mal ihracatı için de yapılmıştır. Çekim modeline ilişkin ampirik sonuçlar, DYSY ile nihai mal ile toplam mal ihracatı arasında tamamlayıcı bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. DYSY ile ara mal ihracatı arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Ampirik çalışmanın ikinci bölümünde nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Nedensellik analizine ilişkin sonuçlar DYSY ile ihracat arasında çift yönlü nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Albulescu, C. T., & Goyeau, D. (2016) “The interaction between trade and FDI: the CEE countries experience” hal.archives, 01361954.
  • Alıcı, A. A. ve Ucal, M. Ş. (2003) “Foreign direct investment, exports and output growth of Turkey: Causality analysis” In European Trade Study Group (ETSG) fifth annual conference, Madrid , September : 11-13.
  • Armutlulu, I.,Canel, C., Porterfield, R. (2011) “The determinants of Turkish outward foreign direct investment” Modern Economy, 2(05), 717.
  • Bajo-Rubio, O. ve Montero-Muñoz, M. (2001) “Foreign direct investment and trade: a causality analysis” Open economies review, 12(3):305-323.
  • Bhasin, N. ve Paul, J. (2016) “Exports and outward FDI: are they complements or substitutes? Evidence from Asia” Multinational Business Review, 24(1): 62-78.
  • Bilgili, F.,Tülüce, N. S. H. ve Doğan, İ. (2012) “The determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov regime-switching approach” Economic Modelling, 29(4): 1161-1169.
  • Blonigen, B. A. (2001) “In search of substitution between foreign production and exports” Journal of international economics, 53(1), 81-104.
  • Bozdağlıoğlu, E. Y. ve Özpınar, Ö. (2011)”Türkiye’ye gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımların Türkiye’nin ihracat performansına etkilerinin var yöntemi ile tahmini” Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(3): 39-63.
  • Brainard, S. L. 1997 “An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity- Concentration Trade-off between Multinational Sales and Trade”American Economic Review, 87: 520-44.
  • Buckley, P. ve Casson, M. (1976)”Thefuture of themultinational corporation” London, Macmillan.
  • Carr, D. L.,Markusen, J. R. ve Maskus, K. E. (2001) “Estimating the knowledge-capital model of the multinational enterprise” The American Economic Review, 91(3): 693-708.
  • Chiappini, R. (2011)”FDI and trade: A Granger causality analysis in a heterogeneous panel” Economics Bulletin, 31(4): 2975- 2985.
  • Chiappini, R. (2016) “Do Overseas investments create or replace trade? New insights from a macro-sectoral study on Japan” The Journal of International Trade&Economic Development, 25(3): 403-425.
  • Clausing, K. A. (2000) “Does multinational activity displace trade?” Economic Inquiry, 38(2):190-205.
  • Dunning, J. H. (1980) “ Towards an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests “ Journal of International Business Studies 11 (1): 9–31.
  • Egger, P. ve Pfaffermayr, M. (2004) “The impact of bilateral investment treaties on foreign direct investment” Journal of comparative economics, 32(4):788-804.
  • Erdogan, M. ve Unver, M. (2015) “Determinants of foreign direct investments: Dynamic panel data evidence” International Journal of Economicsand Finance, 7(5), 82.
  • Esiyok, B. (2016) “Government Stability, Accession to EU and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey: A GMM Applicatio “ Economic Research Guardian, 6(2): 57-66.
  • Falk, M., ve Hake, M. (2008) “A panel data analysis on FDI and exports” FIW Research Reports, No: 12.
  • Forte, R. (2004) “The relationship between foreign direct investment and international trade. Substitution or complementarity? A survey “ Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto, 140.
  • Forte, R. ve Silva, V. (2017) “ Outward FDI and Home Country Exports: Theoretical Approaches and Empirical Evidence” The International Trade Journal:1-27.
  • Frede, J. ve Yetkiner, H. (2017) “The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: a panel data gravity model” TheJournal of International Trade&Economic Development: 1-16.
  • Graham, E. M. (1996) “On the relationship among FDI and International Trade in the Manufacturing Sector: Empirical results for the United States and Japan” WTO-Staff Working Paper, July, 96, 008.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978) “Specificationtests in econometrics” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society: 1251-1271.
  • Head, K. ve Ries, J. (2004) “Exporting and FDI as alternative strategies.”Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 20(3): 409-423.
  • Helpman, E. (1984) “A simple theory of international trade with multinational corporations” Journal of political economy, 92(3): 451-471.
  • Helpman, E. ve Krugman, P. R. (1985) “Market structure and foreign trade: Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy” Cambridge, MA, MIT press.
  • Helpman, E.,Melitz, M. J. ve Stephen, R. Y. (2004) “ Exports Versus FDI with Heterogenous Firms” American Economic Review 94.
  • Hummels, D., Ishii, J., Yi, K.-M. (1999) “ The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, March.
  • Ibrahim, A.,Cakir, O., Canel, C. ve Porterfield, R. (2011) “A comparison of inward and outward foreign direct investment determinants in Turkey” International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(20).
  • Kimura, F.ve Obashi, A. (2010) “International production networks in machinery industries: Structure and its evolution” ERIA discussion paper series, 2010, 09.
  • Krautheim, S. (2013) “Export‐supporting FDI “ Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienned’ économique, 46(4): 1571- 1605.
  • Krugman, P., Cooper, R. N. ve Srinivasan, T. N. (1995) “ Growing world trade: causes and consequences” Brookings papers on economic activity, 1995(1): 327-377.
  • Kula, F. (2005) “Dolaysız Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ve Dış Ticaret” Erciyes Üniversitesi, DDBF Tartışma Metinleri, 05/01.
  • Lee, H. (2010) “The Destination of Outward FDI and the Performance of South Korean Multinationals” Emerging Markets Finance &Trade 46 (3):59–66.
  • Lim, S. H. ve Moon, H. C. (2001) “ Effects of outward foreign direct investment on home country exports: the case of Korean firms” Multinational business review, 9(1), 42.
  • Markusen, J. R. (1984) “Multinationals, multi-plant economies, and the gains from trade” Journal of international economics, 16(3-4): 205-226.
  • Markusen, J. R. ve Venables, A. J. (1999) “Foreign direct investment as a catalyst for industrial development.”European economic review, 43(2): 335-356.
  • Mitze, T., Alecke, B., & Untiedt, G. (2009) “Trade-FDI Linkages in a System of Gravity Equations for German Regional Data” Ruhr Economic Papers, 84.
  • Mullen, J. K. ve Williams, M. (2011) “ Bilateral FDI and Canadian export activity” The International Trade Journal, 25(3): 349-371.
  • Nishitateno, S. (2013) “Global production sharing and the FDI–trade nexus: New evidence from the Japanese automobile industry” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 27: 64-80.
  • Pfaffermayr, M. (1994) “Foreign direct investment and exports: a time series approach”Applied Economics, 26(4): 337-351.
  • Svensson, R. (1996) “Effects of Overseas Production on Home Country Exports: Evidence Based on Swedish Multinationals” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv132 (2): 304–29.
  • Swenson, D. L. (2004) “Foreign investment and the mediation of trade flows” Review of International Economics, 12(4): 609- 629.
  • Obashi, A. (2010) “Stability of production networks in East Asia: Duration and survival of trade“ Japan and the World Economy, 22(1), 21-30.
  • Öğüt, A. Mucuk, M. ve Demirsel, M. T. (2014, October) “ Foreign Direct Investment and Export In Turkey: A Cointegration Analysis” In Proceedings of International Academic Conferences ). International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, No. 0702290.
  • The World Bank (2014) “Trading Up to High Income (Turkey Country Economic Memorandum. Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit “ the World Bank.
  • Türkcan, B. ve Saygılı, R. F. (2011) “Foreign direct investment in flows and net exports relation ship in Turkey: an analysis for the post 1980 period” Internatıonal journal of Social Sciences and Humanıty Studies, vol 3, 2.
  • Türkcan, K. (2007) “Outward foreign direct investment and intermediate goods exports”Économie internationale, (4):51-71.
  • Türkcan, K., & Pişkin, E. (2016) “Ticaret Anlaşmalarının Türkiye’nin İhracat Dinamiğine Etkisi : Yaygın ve Yoğun Ticaret” Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 27(99) : 17-55
  • Zarotiadis ve G.;Mylonidis, N. (2005) “FDI and Trade in the UK: Substitutes or Complements?” Working Paper, Department of Economics, University of Ioannina.

The Relationship between Turkish Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Exports

Yıl 2018, Cilt 18, Sayı 3, 457 - 468, 01.07.2018

Öz

The aim of the study is to analyze the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and export with the context of substitution and complementarity . For this aim, Turkey’s export data set composing HS-6 digit product level statics for period 2001 to 2012 with 82 countries has been decomposed into intermediate goods and final goods export by using the method developed by Kimura and Obashi (2010) and Obashi (2010). Then, the relationship between country - level outward FDI and export is analyzed with the gravity model. All analyzes have been performed for the exports of the total goods as well as the exports of final and intermediate goods. The empirical results for the gravity model show that there is a complementary relationship between FDI and final goods export as well as total goods export. There is no statistically significant relationship between FDI and intermediate goods export. In the second part of empirical analysis, causality test is performed. The causality results show that there is a two-way causality between FDI and export.

Kaynakça

  • Albulescu, C. T., & Goyeau, D. (2016) “The interaction between trade and FDI: the CEE countries experience” hal.archives, 01361954.
  • Alıcı, A. A. ve Ucal, M. Ş. (2003) “Foreign direct investment, exports and output growth of Turkey: Causality analysis” In European Trade Study Group (ETSG) fifth annual conference, Madrid , September : 11-13.
  • Armutlulu, I.,Canel, C., Porterfield, R. (2011) “The determinants of Turkish outward foreign direct investment” Modern Economy, 2(05), 717.
  • Bajo-Rubio, O. ve Montero-Muñoz, M. (2001) “Foreign direct investment and trade: a causality analysis” Open economies review, 12(3):305-323.
  • Bhasin, N. ve Paul, J. (2016) “Exports and outward FDI: are they complements or substitutes? Evidence from Asia” Multinational Business Review, 24(1): 62-78.
  • Bilgili, F.,Tülüce, N. S. H. ve Doğan, İ. (2012) “The determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov regime-switching approach” Economic Modelling, 29(4): 1161-1169.
  • Blonigen, B. A. (2001) “In search of substitution between foreign production and exports” Journal of international economics, 53(1), 81-104.
  • Bozdağlıoğlu, E. Y. ve Özpınar, Ö. (2011)”Türkiye’ye gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımların Türkiye’nin ihracat performansına etkilerinin var yöntemi ile tahmini” Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(3): 39-63.
  • Brainard, S. L. 1997 “An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity- Concentration Trade-off between Multinational Sales and Trade”American Economic Review, 87: 520-44.
  • Buckley, P. ve Casson, M. (1976)”Thefuture of themultinational corporation” London, Macmillan.
  • Carr, D. L.,Markusen, J. R. ve Maskus, K. E. (2001) “Estimating the knowledge-capital model of the multinational enterprise” The American Economic Review, 91(3): 693-708.
  • Chiappini, R. (2011)”FDI and trade: A Granger causality analysis in a heterogeneous panel” Economics Bulletin, 31(4): 2975- 2985.
  • Chiappini, R. (2016) “Do Overseas investments create or replace trade? New insights from a macro-sectoral study on Japan” The Journal of International Trade&Economic Development, 25(3): 403-425.
  • Clausing, K. A. (2000) “Does multinational activity displace trade?” Economic Inquiry, 38(2):190-205.
  • Dunning, J. H. (1980) “ Towards an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests “ Journal of International Business Studies 11 (1): 9–31.
  • Egger, P. ve Pfaffermayr, M. (2004) “The impact of bilateral investment treaties on foreign direct investment” Journal of comparative economics, 32(4):788-804.
  • Erdogan, M. ve Unver, M. (2015) “Determinants of foreign direct investments: Dynamic panel data evidence” International Journal of Economicsand Finance, 7(5), 82.
  • Esiyok, B. (2016) “Government Stability, Accession to EU and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey: A GMM Applicatio “ Economic Research Guardian, 6(2): 57-66.
  • Falk, M., ve Hake, M. (2008) “A panel data analysis on FDI and exports” FIW Research Reports, No: 12.
  • Forte, R. (2004) “The relationship between foreign direct investment and international trade. Substitution or complementarity? A survey “ Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto, 140.
  • Forte, R. ve Silva, V. (2017) “ Outward FDI and Home Country Exports: Theoretical Approaches and Empirical Evidence” The International Trade Journal:1-27.
  • Frede, J. ve Yetkiner, H. (2017) “The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: a panel data gravity model” TheJournal of International Trade&Economic Development: 1-16.
  • Graham, E. M. (1996) “On the relationship among FDI and International Trade in the Manufacturing Sector: Empirical results for the United States and Japan” WTO-Staff Working Paper, July, 96, 008.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978) “Specificationtests in econometrics” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society: 1251-1271.
  • Head, K. ve Ries, J. (2004) “Exporting and FDI as alternative strategies.”Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 20(3): 409-423.
  • Helpman, E. (1984) “A simple theory of international trade with multinational corporations” Journal of political economy, 92(3): 451-471.
  • Helpman, E. ve Krugman, P. R. (1985) “Market structure and foreign trade: Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy” Cambridge, MA, MIT press.
  • Helpman, E.,Melitz, M. J. ve Stephen, R. Y. (2004) “ Exports Versus FDI with Heterogenous Firms” American Economic Review 94.
  • Hummels, D., Ishii, J., Yi, K.-M. (1999) “ The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, March.
  • Ibrahim, A.,Cakir, O., Canel, C. ve Porterfield, R. (2011) “A comparison of inward and outward foreign direct investment determinants in Turkey” International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(20).
  • Kimura, F.ve Obashi, A. (2010) “International production networks in machinery industries: Structure and its evolution” ERIA discussion paper series, 2010, 09.
  • Krautheim, S. (2013) “Export‐supporting FDI “ Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienned’ économique, 46(4): 1571- 1605.
  • Krugman, P., Cooper, R. N. ve Srinivasan, T. N. (1995) “ Growing world trade: causes and consequences” Brookings papers on economic activity, 1995(1): 327-377.
  • Kula, F. (2005) “Dolaysız Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ve Dış Ticaret” Erciyes Üniversitesi, DDBF Tartışma Metinleri, 05/01.
  • Lee, H. (2010) “The Destination of Outward FDI and the Performance of South Korean Multinationals” Emerging Markets Finance &Trade 46 (3):59–66.
  • Lim, S. H. ve Moon, H. C. (2001) “ Effects of outward foreign direct investment on home country exports: the case of Korean firms” Multinational business review, 9(1), 42.
  • Markusen, J. R. (1984) “Multinationals, multi-plant economies, and the gains from trade” Journal of international economics, 16(3-4): 205-226.
  • Markusen, J. R. ve Venables, A. J. (1999) “Foreign direct investment as a catalyst for industrial development.”European economic review, 43(2): 335-356.
  • Mitze, T., Alecke, B., & Untiedt, G. (2009) “Trade-FDI Linkages in a System of Gravity Equations for German Regional Data” Ruhr Economic Papers, 84.
  • Mullen, J. K. ve Williams, M. (2011) “ Bilateral FDI and Canadian export activity” The International Trade Journal, 25(3): 349-371.
  • Nishitateno, S. (2013) “Global production sharing and the FDI–trade nexus: New evidence from the Japanese automobile industry” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 27: 64-80.
  • Pfaffermayr, M. (1994) “Foreign direct investment and exports: a time series approach”Applied Economics, 26(4): 337-351.
  • Svensson, R. (1996) “Effects of Overseas Production on Home Country Exports: Evidence Based on Swedish Multinationals” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv132 (2): 304–29.
  • Swenson, D. L. (2004) “Foreign investment and the mediation of trade flows” Review of International Economics, 12(4): 609- 629.
  • Obashi, A. (2010) “Stability of production networks in East Asia: Duration and survival of trade“ Japan and the World Economy, 22(1), 21-30.
  • Öğüt, A. Mucuk, M. ve Demirsel, M. T. (2014, October) “ Foreign Direct Investment and Export In Turkey: A Cointegration Analysis” In Proceedings of International Academic Conferences ). International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, No. 0702290.
  • The World Bank (2014) “Trading Up to High Income (Turkey Country Economic Memorandum. Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit “ the World Bank.
  • Türkcan, B. ve Saygılı, R. F. (2011) “Foreign direct investment in flows and net exports relation ship in Turkey: an analysis for the post 1980 period” Internatıonal journal of Social Sciences and Humanıty Studies, vol 3, 2.
  • Türkcan, K. (2007) “Outward foreign direct investment and intermediate goods exports”Économie internationale, (4):51-71.
  • Türkcan, K., & Pişkin, E. (2016) “Ticaret Anlaşmalarının Türkiye’nin İhracat Dinamiğine Etkisi : Yaygın ve Yoğun Ticaret” Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 27(99) : 17-55
  • Zarotiadis ve G.;Mylonidis, N. (2005) “FDI and Trade in the UK: Substitutes or Complements?” Working Paper, Department of Economics, University of Ioannina.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular İktisat
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Hüriye ALKIN (Sorumlu Yazar)
0000-0002-6328-3381


Kemal TÜRKCAN
0000-0001-9055-7280

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Temmuz 2018
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018, Cilt 18, Sayı 3

Kaynak Göster

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { eab500038, journal = {Ege Academic Review}, issn = {1303-099X}, address = {EGE AKADEMİK BAKIŞ DERGİSİ EGE ÜNİVERSİTESİ İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ BORNOVA İZMİR}, publisher = {Ege Üniversitesi}, year = {2018}, volume = {18}, pages = {457 - 468}, doi = {}, title = {Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki}, key = {cite}, author = {Alkın, Hüriye and Türkcan, Kemal} }
APA Alkın, H. & Türkcan, K. (2018). Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki . Ege Academic Review , 18 (3) , 457-468 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/eab/issue/41358/500038
MLA Alkın, H. , Türkcan, K. "Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki" . Ege Academic Review 18 (2018 ): 457-468 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/eab/issue/41358/500038>
Chicago Alkın, H. , Türkcan, K. "Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki". Ege Academic Review 18 (2018 ): 457-468
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki AU - Hüriye Alkın , Kemal Türkcan Y1 - 2018 PY - 2018 N1 - DO - T2 - Ege Academic Review JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 457 EP - 468 VL - 18 IS - 3 SN - 1303-099X- M3 - UR - Y2 - 2022 ER -
EndNote %0 Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki %A Hüriye Alkın , Kemal Türkcan %T Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki %D 2018 %J Ege Academic Review %P 1303-099X- %V 18 %N 3 %R %U
ISNAD Alkın, Hüriye , Türkcan, Kemal . "Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki". Ege Academic Review 18 / 3 (Temmuz 2018): 457-468 .
AMA Alkın H. , Türkcan K. Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki. eab. 2018; 18(3): 457-468.
Vancouver Alkın H. , Türkcan K. Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki. Ege Academic Review. 2018; 18(3): 457-468.
IEEE H. Alkın ve K. Türkcan , "Türkiye’den Çıkan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki", Ege Academic Review, c. 18, sayı. 3, ss. 457-468, Tem. 2018