The Significance of Participation in the Global Production Network to Economic Development: An Econometric Analysis of BRICS+T Countries

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 1, 101 - 116, 03.02.2024

Şahin Nas Seyit Ali Miçooğulları Maya Moalla

https://doi.org/10.21121/eab.1194774

Öz

With globalization, the international fragmentation of production (IFP) splits the production process of final goods and services into several stages undertaken in different countries integrated into global production networks. BRICS + T countries have rapidly participated in the (IFP) process especially after 2000s. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the nexus between BRICS+T countries’ participation in the global production networks and their economic development. The vertical specialization rate, as an indicator of this participation, had been calculated utilizing OECD Input-Output Tables. Subsequently, the development index was calculated utilizing economic-technological and cultural-institutional indicators published by World Bank. The vertical specialization’s impact on development was estimated utilizing the CS-ARDL estimator. The results revealed that while the vertical specialization has a statistically significant positive impact on development in the short term, a positive but not statistically significant impact was recorded in the long term. Konya (2006) causality test was performed to examine the causal relationship among the selected variables. The results revealed a one-way causality running from development to vertical specialization in China and Turkey and a one-way causality running from vertical specialization to development in Brazil. No causality relationship could be detected in other countries included in the analysis.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Development, Vertical Specialization, Globalization, Input-Output Models, BRICS+T, CS-ARDL

Kaynakça

• Alexander, P. (2021). Vertical Specialisation and Gains from Trade. The World Economy, 44, 1110-1140. doi:10.1111/twec.13061
• Amador, J., & Cabral, S. (2009). Vertical Specialization Across The World: A Relative Measure. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 20, 267-280. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2009.05.003
• Amador, J., & Cabral, S. (2016). Global Value Chains: A Survey of Drivers And Measures. Journal of Economic Surveys, 30(2), 278-301. doi:10.1111/joes.12097
• Amador, J., Cappariello, R., & Stehrer, R. (2015). Global Value Chains: A View from The Euro Area. Asian Economic Journal, 29(2), 99-120. doi:10.1111/asej.12050
• Antràs, P. (2020). Conceptual Aspects of Global Value Chains. TheWorld Bank Economic Review, 34(3), 571-574. doi:10.1093/wber/lhaa006
• Aydoğuş, O. (2015). Girdi-Çıktı Modellerine Giriş (4. b.). Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
• Bakır, E., Özçelik, E., Özmen, E., & Taşıran, A. C. (2017). Türkiye'de Erken Sanayisizleşme. M. Koyuncu, H. Mıhcı, & A. E. Yeldan (Dü) içinde, Geçmişten Geleceğe Türkiye Ekonomisi (s. 157-192). İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
• Banga, K. (2021). Impact of Global Value Chains on Total Factor Productivity: The Case of Indian Manufacturing. Review Development Economics, 1-32. doi:10.1111/rode.12867
• Białowąs, T., & Budzyńska, A. (2022). The Importance of Global Value Chains in Developing Countries’ Agricultural Trade Development. Sustainability, 14(3), 1-22. doi:10.3390/su14031389
• Chang, H. (2016). Kalkınma Reçetelerinin Gerçek Yüzü. (T. A. Onmuş, Çev.) İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
• Chang, H., & Grabel, I. (2016). Kalkınma Yeniden Alternatif İktisat Politikaları El Kitabı. (E. Özçelik, Çev.) Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
• Chen, H., Kondratowicz, M., & Yi, K.-M. (2005). Vertical Specialization and Three Facts About U.S. International Trade. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 16(1), 35-59. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2004.12.004
• Chudik, A., & Pesaran , M. H. (2013). Large Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectional Dependence: A Survey. Working Paper No. 153 . Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute .
• Chudik, A., & Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Common Correlated Effects Estimation of Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Models with Weakly Exogenous Regressors. Journal of Econometrics, 188(2), 393-420. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.03.007
• Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran , M., & Raissi, M. (2017). Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth? The Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(1), 135-150. doi:10.1162/REST_a_00593
• Clark, D. P. (2010). Vertical Specialization with Developed and Developing Countries. The Journal of Developing Areas, 43(2), 327-339. doi:https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.0.0061
• Constantinescu, C., Mattoo, A., & Ruta, M. (2019). Does Vertical Specialisation Increase Productivity? The World Economy, 42, 2385-2402. doi:10.1111/twec.12801
• Dağıstan, N. (2019). Türkiye'nin Dış Ticaretindeki Dikey Uzmanlaşmanın Girdi-Çıktı Modeli ile Analizi. Fiscaoeconomia, 3(2), 1-20. doi:10.25295/fsecon.2019.02.001
• Dean, J. M., Fung, K. C., & Wang, Z. (2011). Measuring Vertical Specialization: The Case of China. Review of International Economics, 19(4), 609-625. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9396.2011.00969.x
• Dhaene, G., & Jochmans, K. (2015). Split-panel Jackknife Estimation of Fixed-effect Models. The Review of Economic Studies, 82(3), 991–1030. doi:10.1093/restud/rdv007
• Duan, Y., Dietzenbacher, E., Jiang, X., Chen, X., & Yang, C. (2018). Why has China’s vertical specialization declined? Economic Systems Research, 30(2), 178-200. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2018.1431610
• Gereffi, G. (2015). Global Value Chains, Development and Emerging Economies. Working Paper Series 2015-047. The Netherlands: Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU‐MERIT). http://www.merit.unu.edu
• Gereffi, G., & Wu, X. (2020). Global Value Chains, Industrial Hubs and Economic Development in the Twenty-First Century. A. OQUBAY, & J. Y. LIN (Dü) içinde, The Oxford Handbook of Industrial Hubs and Economic Development (s. 1049-1068). United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.
• Goldar, B., Das, D. K., Das, P. C., & Gupta, N. (2020). Domestic Versus Imported Contesnts in Exports: The Case of Indias's Merchandise Trade. Journal of South Asian Development, 15(1), 62-96. doi:10.1177/0973174120922451
• HDR. (19996). Human Development Report (1996). Published for the United Nations. Development Programme. (UNDP). New York: Oxford University Press. hdr.undp.org/sites/default/.../reports/.../hdr_1996_en_complete_nostat
• Hummels, D., Ishii, J., & Yi, K.-M. (2001). The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specilization in World Trade. Journal of International Economics, 54, 75-96. doi:10.1016/S0022-1996(00)00093-3
• Hummels, D., Rapoport, D., & Yi, K.-M. (1998, June). Vertical Specialization and The Changing Nature of World Trade. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 4(2), 79-99. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1023939
• Jangam, B. P., & Rath, B. N. (2021). Do Global Value Chains Enhance or Slog Economic Growth? Applied Economics, 53(36), 4148-4165. doi:10.1080/00036846.2021.1897076
• Jiang, X., & Milberg , W. (2012). Vertical Specialization and Industrial Upgrading: A Preliminary Note. Economic and Social Upgrading in Global Production Networks. New York: Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
• Kar, M., Nazlıoğlu, Ş., & Ağır, H. (2011). Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus in The MENA Countries: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis. Economic Modelling, 28(1-2), 685-693. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2010.05.015
• Karaoğuz, H. E. (2020). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler için 2008 Küresel Krizi Sonrasında Devletin Yeni Rolü. M. Tiryakioğlu (Dü.) içinde, Devletle Kalkınma Fikret Şenses'e Armağan (s. 211-245). İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
• Keyder, Ç. (2004). Ulusal Kalkınmacılığın İflası. İstanbul: Metis Yayınları.
• Konya, L. (2006). Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with A Panel Data Approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978-992. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008
• Lamonica, G. R., Salvati, L., & Carlucci, M. (2020). Vertical Specialization Across The World: Evidence from The World Input-Output Table. Rivista Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, 74(1), 17-28. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ite/iteeco/200101.html
• Martinez-Galan, E., & Fontoura, M. P. (2019). Global Value Chains and Inward Foreign Direct Investment in The 2000s. The World Economy, 42, 175-196. doi:10.1111/twec.12660
• Miller, R. E., & Blair, P. D. (2009). Input-Output Analysis Foundation and Extensions (2 b.). United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.
• Muhtaseb, B. M., & Daoud, H.-e. (2015). Vertical Specialization in The Middle East; Evidence from The Import Content of Exports. European Scientific Journal, 11(10), 77-90. https://eujournal.org/index.php/esj/article/view/5410
• Myrdal, G. (1974). What is Development? Journal of Economic Issues, 8(4), 729-736. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.1974.11503225
• Olczyk, M., & Kordalska, A. (2017). Gross Exports Versus Value-Added Exports: Determinants and Policy Implications for Manufacturing Sectors in Selected CEE Countries. Eastern European Economics, 55, 91-109. doi:10.1080/00128775.2016.1254564
• Orhangazi, Ö. (2020). Türkiye Ekonomisinin Yapısı Sorunlar, Kırılganlıklar ve Kriz Dinamikleri. Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
• Padilla, M. A., Handoyo, R. D., Sugiharti, L., & Muryani , M. (2019). Production Networks Under the Asean Plus Six. A Good Deal or A Threat? Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 7(1), 81-91. doi:10.9770/jesi.2019.7.1(7)
• Pahl, S., & Timmer, M. P. (2020). Do Global Value Chains Enhance Economic Upgrading? A Long View. The Journal of Development Studies, 56(9), 1683–1705. doi:10.1080/00220388.2019.1702159
• Pahl, S., & Timmer, M. P. (2019). Patterns of Vertical Specialisation In Trade: Long-Run Evidence ffor 91 Countries. Review of World Economics, 155, 459-486. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-019-00352-3
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240 . Germany: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(1), 265-312. doi:doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
• Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127. doi:10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x
• Pesaran, M., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
• Rodrik, D. (2011). Akıllı Küreselleşme. (B. Aksu, Çev.) Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
• So, B. S., & Shin, D. W. (1999). Recursive Mean Adjustment in Time-Series Inferences. Statistics & Probability Letters, 43(1), 65-73. doi:10.1016/S0167-7152(98)00247-8
• Solaz, M. (2018). Value Added and Participation in Global Value Chains: The Case of Spain. The World Economy, 41, 2804-2827. doi:10.1111/twec.12641
• Subaşat, T. (2004). Küreselleşme ve Devletin Rolü. Kalkınma ve Küreselleşme (s. 55-86). içinde Ankara: Bağlam Yayıncılık.
• Şenses, F. (2004). Neoliberal Küreselleşme Kalkınma İçin Bir Fırsat Mı, Engel Mi? S. Dedeoğlu, & T. Subaşat (Dü) içinde, Kalkınma ve Küreselleşme (s. 13-54). İstanbul: Bağlam Yayıncılık.
• Şenses, F. (2009). Neoliberal Küreselleşme Kalkınma İçin Bir Fırsat mı, Engel mi? F. Şenses (Dü.) içinde, Neoliberal Küreselleşme ve Kalkınma Seçme Yazılar (s. 235-280). İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
• Tekin-Koru, A. (2020). Küresel Ticarette Değişimler ve Devlet. M. Tiryakioğlu (Dü.) içinde, Devletle Kalkınma Fikret Şenses'e Armağan (s. 55-72). İstanbul: İlteşim Yayınları.
• WDR. (2013). Jobs. World Bank Group. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-9575-2
• Wigley, A. A., Mıhcı, S., & Ataç, K. (2018). Türkiye İmalat Sanayii Sektörlerinin Küresel Değer Zincirleri İçerisindeki Konumu ve Rekabet Gücü: 2000-2011. N. engin, E. Aslanoğlu, O. Erdoğan, B. C. Karahasan, & K. Tata (Dü) içinde, Türkiye Ekonomisinde Kalkınma ve Dönüşüm Taner Berksoy'a Armağan (s. 217-250). Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
• Xiao, H., Meng, B., Ye, J., & Li, S. (2020). Are Global Value Chains Truly Global? Economic Systems Research, 32(4), 540-564. doi:10.1080/09535314.2020.1783643
• Yang, C., Dietzenbacher, E., Pei, J., Chen, X., Zhu, K., & Tang, Z. (2015). Processing Trade Biases The Measurement of Vertical Specialization in China. Economic Systems Research, 27(1), 60-76. doi:10.1080/09535314.2014.955463
• Yeldan, E. (2016). Küreselleşme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi: Bölüşüm, Birikim ve Büyüme. İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
• Yi, J., & Liu, M. (2019). Relating Vertical Specialization to Indigenous Technological Capability Growth: The Case of China. The Chinese Economy, 52(6), 449-463. doi:10.1080/10971475.2019.1617951
• Yu, C., & Luo, Z. (2018). What are China's Real Gains within Global Value Chains? Measuring Domestic Value Added in China's Exports of Manufactures. China Economic Review, 47, 263-273. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2017.08.010
• Yucer, A., Guilhoto, J., & Siroen, J.-M. (2014). Internal and International Vertical Specialization of Brazilian States–An Input-Output analysis. Revue d'économie politique, 4(124), 599-612. doi:10.3917/redp.244.0599