E7 ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIM GİRİŞLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR HETEROJEN PANEL MODELLEMESİ

Year 2024, Volume: 24 Issue: 3, 407 - 420, 11.07.2024

Dilara Ayla

https://doi.org/10.21121/eab.20240304

Abstract

Serbest ekonomi şartlarının yaygınlaşmasıyla birlikte sermayenin uluslararası hareketliliğinde yaşanan artışlar sermayeyi ve sağlayacağı imkanları ülkesine çekmek isteyen ekonomilerin artmasına sebep olmuştur. Bununla birlikte sermaye sahipleri de kendi faydalarını maksimize etmek amacıyla serbest dolaşım imkanlarını kullanmaya başlamışlardır. Bu çerçevede uzun vadeli sermaye akımını içeren doğrudan yabancı yatırımları etkileyen faktörler çok sayıda araştırmanın konusu olmuştur. E7 ekonomilerinin 1992-2021 dönemine ait yıllık verileri kapsamında gerçekleştirilen bu analizde net doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri ile işsizlik, liberal demokrasi, kamu harcamaları, doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışları ve kısa vadeli borçlanma arasındaki ilişkilerin ortaya konulması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda görünürde ilişkisiz regresyon analizine dayanan heterojen yapılı panel veri yönteminin kullanıldığı çalışmada söz konusu değişkenlerin etkisi altındaki gerçekleşmelerin ülkelere göre farklılık gösterdiği tespit edilmekle birlikte analize dahil edilen tüm değişkenlerin doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri üzerinde belirleyici bir role sahip olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım, İşsizlik, Demokrasi

Heterogenous Panel Modeling on Foreign Direct Investments in E7 Countries

Abstract

With the spread of free economy conditions, the increase in the international mobility of capital has led to an increase in the number of economies that want to attract capital and the opportunities it will provide. In addition to this, capital owners have started to use free movement opportunities in order to maximize their own benefits. In this context, the factors affecting foreign direct investments including long-term capital flows have been the subject of many empirical studies. In this study which is carried out within the scope of the annual data of E7 economies for the period of 1992-2021, it is aimed to reveal the relationships between net foreign direct investment inflows and unemployment, liberal democracy, public expenditures, foreign direct investment outflows and short-term borrowing. In the study, in which the heterogeneous panel data method based on seemingly unrelated regression analysis was used, it was determined that the realizations under the influence of the selected independent variables differed by countries, but it was found that all the variables included in the analysis had a decisive role on foreign direct investment inflows.

Keywords

Foreign Direct Investment, Unemployment, Democracy

References

• ANWAR, S. M. (2017), Political stability and Attracting Foreign Direct Investment: A Comparative Study of Middle East and North African, Sci.Int. (Lahore), 29(3), 679-683.
• ASIEDU, E. and LIEN, D. (2011), Democracy, Foreign Direct Investment and Natural Resources, Journal of International Economics, 84(1), 99-111.
• BÉNASSY-QUÉRÉ, A., COUPET, M. and THIERRY, M. (2007), Institutional Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment, The World Economy, 30(5), 764-782.
• BOZKURT, H. (2009), Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yatırımların Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Analiz: CCC-MGARCH Modeli ile Tahmin, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 36(1), 71–92.
• BREUSCH, T. and PAGAN, A. (1980), The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics, Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-253.
• BUSSE, M. (2003), Democracy and FDI, HWWA Discussion Paper, 220, 1-32.
• BUSSE, M. and HEFEKER, C. (2007), Political Risk, Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment, European Journal of Political Economy, 23, 397-415.
• CHAKRABARTI, A. (2001), The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: Sensitivity Analyses of CrossCountry Regressions, Kyklos, 54(1), 89-114.
• CHAN, K. and GEMAYEL, E. (2004), Risk Instability and The Pattern of Foreign Direct Investment in The Middle East and North Africa Region, IMF Working Paper, 139, 1-20.
• CHOONG, C. K., SIONG-HOOK, L. and CHUEN-KHEE, P. (2015), The Linkages Between Private and Public Investments in Malaysia: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment, International Journal of Economics and Management, 9(1), 139–153.
• DE HAAN, J. and STURM, J., E. (2000), On The Relationship Between Economic Freedom and Economic Growth, European Journal of Political Economy, 16(2), 215-241.
• ENGLE, R. F. (1982), Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of The Variance of United Kingdom Inflation, Econometrica, 50 (4), 9871007.
• FROBEL, F., HEINRICHS, J. and KREYE, O. (1978), The New International Division of Labour, Social Science Information, 17(1), 123-142.
• HAIR, J. F., BUSH, R. P. and ORTINAU, D. J. (2002), Marketing Research: Within a Changing Information Environment, Second Edition, New York: McGraw Hill.
• HARVEY, A.C. (1991), The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, Cambridge: The MIT Press.
• IM, K. S., PESARAN, M. H. and SHIN, Y. (2003), Testing For Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
• IMF (2012), Balance of payments manual, http://www. imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bopman/bopman.pdf, Retrieved on July 23. 2021, (Accessed on: 11.06.2023).
• JARQUE, C.M. and BERA, A. K. (1987), A Test for Normality of Observations and Regression Residuals, International Statistical Review, 55, 163–172.
• JENSEN, N. (2003), Democratic Governance and Multinational Corporations: Political Regimes and Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment, International Organization, 54(3), 587-616.
• KHRAWISH, H. A. and SIAM, W. Z. (2010), Determinants of direct foreign investment: Evidence from Jordan, Business and Economic Horizons, 1(1), 67-75.
• KUNCIC, A. and JAKLIC, A. (2014), FDI and Institutions: Formal and Informal Institutions, Multinational Enterprises, Markets and Institutional Diversity, 9, 171205.
• LI, Q. and RESNICK, A. (2003), Reversal of Fortunes: Democratic Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to Developing Countries, International Organization, 57(1), 175-211.
• MUSABEH, A. and ZOUAOUI, M. (2020), Policies and Variables Affecting FDI: A Panel Data Analysis of North African Countries, Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 7(1), 1–20.
• NONNENBERG, M.B. and DE MENDONÇA, M.J.C. (2004), The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries,http://www.anpec.org.br/ encontro2004/artigos/A04A061.pdf, (Accessed on: 11.06.2023).
• OECD and UNCTAD (2022), Twenty-eighth report on G20 investment measures, https://www.oecd. org/investment/investment-policy/28th-OECDUNCTAD-Report-on-G20-Investment-Measures.pdf, (Accessed on: 11.06.2023).
• ONODUGO, V. A., KALU, I. E., ANOWOR, O. F. and UKWENI, N. O. (2014), Is Capital Flight Healthy for Nigerian Economic Growth? An Econometric Investigation, Journal of Empirical Economics, 3(1), 10-24.
• OSTADI, H. and ASHJA (2014). The relationship Between External Debt and Foreign Direct Investment in D-8 Member Countries, WALLIA Journal, 30(3), 18-22.
• OTHMAN, N., YUSOP, Z., ANDAMAN, G. and ISMAIL, M. M. (2018), Impact of Government Spending on FDI Inflows: The Case of ASEAN-5, China and India, International Journal of Business and Society, 19(2), 1-6.
• PESARAN, M. H. (2015), Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels, Econometric Reviews, 34(6-10), 1089-1117.
• PESARAN, M. H. and YAMAGATA, T. (2008), Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
• RAMIREZ, M.D. (2006), Economic and Institutional Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Chile: A Time-Series Analysis 1960-2001, Contemporary Economic Policy, 24(3), 459-471.
• REESE, S. and WESTERLUND, J. (2016), Panicca: Panic on Cross‐Section Averages, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6), 961-981.
• SANTORO, M. (2020), China in Latin America in the 21st century, Ибероамериканские тетради, 8(3), 24-34.
• SINGH, H. and JUN, K. (1995), Some New Evidence on Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries, World Bank Policy Research Paper, 1531, Washington: World Bank.
• SWAMY, P. (1970), Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 311-323.
• UNCTAD (1998), World Investment Report 1998 Trends and Determinants, USA: United Nations Publications.
• UNCTAD (2022), World Investment Report 2022, USA: United Nations Publications.
• V-DEM (2023), Varieties of Democracy Data, https://www.vdem.net/data/the-v-dem-dataset/country-year-vdem-fullothers-v13/ , (Accessed on: 11.06.2023).
• WEİ, W. (2005). China and India: Any diffence in their FDI perfomances, Journal of Asian Economies, 16(4), 719736.
• WALSH, M. J. P. and YU, J. (2010), Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Sectoral and Institutional Approach, International Monetary Fund, 1-28.
• WORLD BANK (2023), World Bank National Accounts Data, https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/publiclicenses#cc-by, (Accessed on: 11.06.2023). YANG, B. (2007), Autocracy, Democracy and FDI Inflows to The Developing Countries, International Economic Journal, 21(3), 419-439.
• ZELLNER, A. (1962), An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57(298), 348-368.