Analysis of Structural Change for the Kyrgyz Republic Economy: Evidence from Decomposition of Output Changes and Multiplier Product Matrix

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 3, 433 - 446, 11.07.2024

Arya Akdeniz , Neşe Kumral , Barış Gök

https://doi.org/10.21121/eab.20240306

Öz

Input-output analyses, which investigate intersectoral interdependencies and structural changes, are critical to sectoral planning by providing policymakers with significant information. This study draws on the input-output tables calculated by the Asian Development Bank for Asian and Pacific countries, specifically for the Kyrgyz Republic. The decomposition of output changes and the multiplier product matrix are employed to identify any structural changes in the country’s economy. The empirical findings indicate that a major structural change has occurred in the Kyrgyz economy, led by the financial intermediation sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Input-Output Analysis, Structural Change, Kyrgyz Republic, Decomposition of Output Changes, Multiplier Product Matrix

Kırgız Cumhuriyeti Ekonomisi İçin Yapısal Değişim Analizi: Üretim Değişimlerinin Ayrıştırılması ve Çarpan Üretim Matrisinden Bulgular

Öz

Sektörel ölçekli iktisadi planlamada girdi-çıktı analizi kilit rol oynamaktadır. Sektörlerin bağımlılık derecelerini ve yapısal değişimlerini incelemek için kullanılan girdi-çıktı analizinden elde edilen bulgular, politika yapıcıları açısından önemli bilgiler içermektedir. Bu çalışmada Asya Kalkınma Bankası’nın 2000 ve 2018 yılları için Kırgız Cumhuriyeti başta olmak üzere, Asya ve Pasifik ülkeleri için hazırladığı girdi-çıktı tabloları kullanılmıştır. Kırgız Cumhuriyeti ekonomisi için yapısal değişim olup olmadığı, üretim değişimlerinin ayrıştırılması ve çarpan üretim matrisi üzerinden incelenmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen ampirik bulgular, Kırgız Cumhuriyeti ekonomisinde ciddi bir yapısal değişim yaşandığını ve finansal aracılık sektörünün ilgili değişimin öncüsü niteliğinde olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Girdi-Çıktı Analizi, Yapısal Değişim, Kırgız Cumhuriyeti, Üretim Değişimlerinin Ayrıştırılması, Çarpan Üretim Matrisi

Kaynakça

• ADB (2018). “Economic Indicators for South and Central Asia, Input Output Tables”. Asian Development Bank, Philippines.
• ADB (2020). “Economic Indicators for South and Central Asia, Input Output Tables”. Asian Development Bank, Philippines.
• ADB (2022). “Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2022”. Asian Development Bank, Philippines.
• Ali, Y., Sabir, M., & Muhammad, N. (2019). “A comparative input-output analysis of the construction sector in three developing economies of South Asia”. Construction Management and Economics, 37(11), 643-658.
• Aydoğuş, O. (2010). “Girdi çıktı modellerine giriş”. Efil Yayınevi, Gözden Geçirilmiş 3. Baskı, Ankara.
• Bekhet, H. A., & Abdullah, A. (2010). “Energy use in agriculture sector: input-output analysis”. International Business Research, 3(3), 111-121.
• Chenery, H. B., & Watanabe, T. (1958). “International comparisons of the structure of production”. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 487-521.
• Dietzenbacher, E., & Van der Linden, J. A. (1997). “Sectoral and Spatial Linkages in the EC Production Structure”. Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 37, 235-257.
• Feldman, S. J., McClain, D., & Palmer, K. (1987). “Sources of structural change in the United States, 1963-78: An input-output perspective”. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 503-510.
• Guo, D., & Hewings, G. J. (2001). “Comparative analysis of China’s economic structures between 1987 and 1997: an input-output prospective”. Discussion Papers REAL.
• Guo, J., & Planting, M. A. (2000). “Using input-output analysis to measure US economic structural change over a 24 year period”. US. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), WP2000-01.
• Haddad, E. A., Hewings, G., & Leon, F. (2007). “Building-up influence: post-war industrialization in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 27, 281-300.
• Hor, C. (2021). “Assessing the dynamic tourism inter-industry linkages and economic structural changes in Cambodia’s economy”. Journal of Economic Structures, 10(1), 1-24.
• Huang, Y., Haseeb, M., Khan, J., & Hossain, M. E. (2023). “Structural changes and economic landscape of the Indian economy: 2000‐2019”. Review of Development Economics, 27(1), 395-422.
• Izvorski, I., Mbowe, A., Dubashov, B., Gassner, K., Ferrantino, M. J., Islam, R., & Sahovic, T. (2020). “Kyrgyz Republic Country Economic Memorandum”. World Bank, Washington, DC.
• İlhan, B., & Yaman, H. (2011). “A comparative input‐output analysis of the construction sector in Turkey and EU countries”. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 18(3), 248-265.
• Leontief, W. (1936). “Quantitative input and output relations in the economic systems of the United States”. The Review of Economic Statistics, 18(3), 105-125.
• Loizou, E., Chatzitheodoridis, F., Michailidis, A., Tsakiri, M., & Theodossiou, G. (2015). “Linkages of the energy sector in the Greek economy: an input-output approach”. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 9(3), 393-411.
• Magtibay‐Ramos, N., Estrada, G. E., & Felipe, J. (2011). “Exploring the Philippine economic landscape and structural change using the input‐output framework”. International Journal of Development Issues, 10(1), 34-59.
• Miller, R. E., & Blair, P. D. (2009). “Input-output analysis: foundations and extensions”. Second Edition, Cambridge University Press.
• Munjal, P. (2007). “Structural changes in Indian economy: An input-output analysis”. Indian Economic Review, 42(1), 77-95.
• Nazara, S., Guo, D., Hewings, G. J., & Dridi, C. (2003). “PyIO. A Python Module for Input-Output”. The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL).
• Öney, E. (1980). “İktisadi Planlama”. Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Yayınları, No: 438 (İkinci Basım).
• Özdil, T. (1993). “Türkiye Ekonomisindeki Yapısal Degişime Girdi-Çıktı Analiziyle Bir Yaklaşım”. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(1), 109-128.
• Özyurt, H. (2012). “İktisadi Planlama”. Aksakal Kitabevi, 3. Baskı.
• Pietroforte, R., & Gregori, T. (2003). “An input-output analysis of the construction sector in highly developed economies”. Construction Management and Economics, 21(3), 319-327.
• Rasmussen, P. N. (1957). “Studies in Intersectoral Relations”. North Holland Publishing.
• San Cristóbal, J. R., & Biezma, M. V. (2006). “The mining industry in the European Union: analysis of inter-industry linkages using input-output analysis”. Resources Policy, 31(1), 1-6.
• Seil, A., & Ichihashi, M. (2012). “Sectoral Impact of Indirect Tax Reduction on The Kyrgyz Economy Based on Input-Output Analysis”. IDEC Discussion Paper, Hiroshima University.
• Sonis, M., & Hewings, G. J. (1999). “Economic landscapes: multiplier product matrix analysis for multiregional input-output systems”. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 40(1), 59-74.
• Sonis, M., Hewings, G. J., & Guo, J. (1996a). “Sources of structural change in input–output systems: a field of influence approach”. Economic Systems Research, 8(1), 15-32.
• Sonis, M., Hewings, G. J., Okuyama, Y., & Guo, J. (1996b). “Japanese regional economic structure interpreted through the multiplier product matrix”. Studies in Regional Science, 26(2), 1-20.
• Sonis, M., Hewings G. J., & Guo, J. (1997) “Evaluation of economic structure: input-output multiplier product matrix”. Discussion Papers, 94-T-12, Regional Economics Applications Laboratory. University of Illinois, Urbana.
• Sonis, M., Hewings, J. D., & Guo, J. (2000). “A new image of classical key sector analysis: minimum information decomposition of the Leontief inverse”. Economic Systems Research, 12(3), 401-423.
• Surugiu, C. (2009). “The Economic Impact of Tourism. An Input-Output Analysis”. Revista Romana de Economie, 28(2).
• Temurshoev, U. (2004). “Key sectors in the Kyrgyzstan Economy”. Cerge-Ei Discussion Paper Series, 135.
• Toh, M. H., & Thangavelu, S. M. (2013). “An input–output study of the Singapore information sector”. Economic Systems Research, 25(2), 233-244.
• Wu, X., & Zhang, Z. (2005). “Input-output analysis of the Chinese construction sector”. Construction Management and Economics, 23(9), 905-912.
• Xing, W., Ye, X., & Kui, L. (2011). “Measuring convergence of China's ICT industry: An input-output analysis”. Telecommunications Policy, 35(4), 301-313.
• Yamano, T., Hill, H., Ginting, E., & Samson, J. (2019). “Kyrgyz Republic: improving growth potential”. Asian Development Bank.