Human development-crime nexus in the European countries: Do unemployment and inflation matter?

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 3, 483 - 494, 06.08.2025

Mustafa Batuhan Tufaner

Öz

Difficulties in conceptualizing the crime phenomenon from past to present reveal various facts in economic, social and legal terms. In this direction, examining the linkage between crime phenomenon and human development constitutes one of the new fields of study in the economics literature. The phenomenon of crime can impose a cost on the economies and investments to be made in productive areas can be directed to crime prevention mechanisms. When the phenomenon of crime is evaluated within the framework of both social and economic policies, it can be stated that it imposes a cost on society through externalities. To solve this problem and minimize the cost, it is necessary to define the crime phenomenon and determine the effects of human development on crime. The aim of the article is to investigate the linkage between the human development and crime. In this context, the relationship between human development and crime is examined for 30 European countries based on the years 2008-2020.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Crime phenomenon , Human development , Unemployment , Inflation , Finite mixture model

Kaynakça

• Ahmad, A., Ali, S. and Ahmad, N. (2014). Crime and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from Pakistan. J. of Bas. and Appl. Sci. Res., 4(4), 31-41.
• Ahmed, S. and Idrees, A. (2018). An empirical investigation on the links between social exclusion and crime. GCU Econ. J., 1&2, 1-22.
• Adekoya, A. and Abdul Razak, N. (2017). The dynamic relationship between crime and economic growth in Nigeria. Int. J. of Man. and Econ., 53(1), 47-64.
• Altindag, D. (2012). Crime and unemployment: Evidence from Europe. Int. Rev. of Law and Econ., 32, 145-157.
• Andzenge, D. (1991). Crime and development: a comparative analysis. Dissertations. 2034.
• Anser, M., Yousaf, Z., Nassani, A., Alotaibi, S., Kabbani, A. and Zaman, K. (2020). Dynamic linkages between poverty, inequality, crime, and social expenditures in a panel of 16 countries: two-step GMM estimates. J. of Econ. Str., 9(43), 1-25.
• Ayhan, F. and Bursa, N. (2019). Unemployment and crime nexus in European Union countries: a panel data analysis. J. of Adm. Sci., 17(34), 465-484.
• Becker, G. (1968). Crime and punishment: an economic approach. J. of Pol. Econ., 169-217. https://www.jstor. org/stable/1830482
• Buba, S., Ishak, S., Habibullah, M. and Noor, Z. (2018). Income inequality and property crime in selected Southern and Eastern European countries. Int. J. of Econ. and Man., 12(S2), 567-581.
• Cerulli, G., Ventura, M. and Baum, C. (2018). The economic determinants of crime: an approach through responsiveness scores. Boston Coll. Wor. Pap. in Econ., 948.http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/wp948.pdf
• Detotto, C. and Pulina, M. (2013). Does more crime mean fewer jobs and less economic growth?. Eur. J. Law Econ. 36, 183-207.
• Drugowick, P. and Pereda, P. (2019). Crime and economic growth: a case study of Manaus, Brazil. Department of Economics FEA-USP WP, 2019-19.
• Dundar, O. (2021). Economic causes of violent crimes: panel ardl analysis. 7th International Mardin Artuklu Scientific Researches Conference, 608-622.
• Ehrlich, I. (1973). Participation in illegitimate activities: a theoretical and empirical investigation. J. of Pol. Econ., 81(3), 521-565. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1831025 Estrada, M. and Ndoma, I. (2014). How crime affects economic performance: the case of Guatemala. J. of Pol. Mod., 36, 867-882.
• Fleisher, B. M. (1963). The effect of unemployment on juvenile delinquency. J. of Pol. Econ., 71(6), 543-555. Gillani, S., Rehman, H. and Gill, A. (2009). Unemployment, poverty, inflation and crime nexus: cointegration and causality analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Econ. and Soc. Rev., 47(1), 79-98.
• Goulas, E. and Zervoyianni, A. (2015). Economic growth and crime: Is there an asymmetric relationship?. Econ. Mod., 49, 286-295.
• Green, P. (2018). Introduction to finite mixtures. Handbook of Mixture Analysis. Chapman and Hall/CRC.
• Gumus, S. (2004). Crime in urban areas: an empirical investigation. Akdeniz Uni. İİBF Der., 7, 98-109.
• Järvenson, G. (2022). Unemployment and crime in Sweden, 2000 to 2014: a study with a focus on younger individuals. Master thesis, Umea University.
• Jeke, L., Chitenderu, T. and Moyo, C. (2021). Crime and economic development in South Africa: a panel data analysis. Int. J. of Econ. and Bus. Adm., 9(2), 424-438.
• Kassem, M., Ali, A. and Audi, M. (2019). Unemployment rate, population density and crime rate in Punjab (Pakistan): An empirical analysis. Bul. of Bus. and Econ., 8(2), 92-104.
• Kathena, I. and Sheefeni, J. (2017). The relationship between economic growth and crime rates in Namibia. Eur. J. of Bas. and Appl. Sci., 4(1), 51-62.
• Kizilgol, O. and Selim, S. (2017). Socio-economic and demographic determinants of crime by panel count data analysis: the case of EU and Turkey. J. of Bus., Econ. and Fin., 4, 31-41.
• Kumar, S. (2013). Crime and economic growth: evidence from India. MPRA, 48794.
• Lauridsen, J., Zeren, F. and Ari, A. (2013). A spatial panel data analysis of crime rates in EU. Dis. Pap. on Bus. and Econ., 2.
• Lojanica, N. and Obradović, S. (2020). Does unemployment lead to criminal activites? An empirical analysis of CEE economies. The Eur. J. of Appl. Econ., 17(1), 104-112.
• McLachlan, G., Lee, S. and Rathnayake, S. (2019). Finite mixture models. Ann. Rev. Stat. Appl., 6, 355-378.
• Merlo, A. (2004). Introduction to economic models of crime. Int. Econ. Rev., 45, 677–679.
• Mose, N., Kibet, L. and Kiprop, S. (2019). The effect of county government expenditure on gross county product in Kenya: a panel data analysis. Afr. J. of Bus. Man., 13(13), 428-437.
• Mulok, D., Kogid, M., Lily, J. and Asid, R. (2016). The relationship between crime and economic growth in Malaysia: reexamine using bound test approach. Malaysian J. of Bus. and Econ., 3(1), 15-26.
• Neanidis, K., Rana, M. and Blackburn, K. (2017). An empirical analysis of organized crime, corruption and economic growth. Ann. Fin., 13, 273-298.
• Onwuka, E., Ugwu, K. and Chukwuma, E. (2020). Implications of youth unemployment and violent crime on the economic growth (A case study of Anambra State, Nigeria). Australian J. of Com. Study, 10-21.
• Priyadarshani, T., Jayasinghe, A. and Karunarathna, A. (2021). The impact of crime rates on economic growth in Asian region. Vavuniya Uni. Int. Res. Con., 98-101.
• Rafique, A. (2021). Unemployment, crime and inflation: The sociology-economic determinants of crime in Pakistan. Graduate J. of Pakistan Rev., 1(1), 29-39.
• Recher, V. (2020). Unemployment and property crime: evidence from Croatia. Crime, Law and Soc. Ch., 73, 357-376.
• Remeikiene, R., Gaspareniene, L., Fedajev, A., Raistenskis, E. and Krivins, A. (2022). Links between crime and economic development: EU classification. Equilibrium. Quart. J. of Econ. and Econ. Pol., 17(4), 909–938.
• Rosenfeld, R. and Vogel, M. (2021). Homicide, acquisitive crime, and inflation: a city-level longitudinal analysis. Crime & Delinquency, 1-31.
• Rungsrisawat, S., Jermsittiparsert, K. and Thanetpaksapong, S. (2019). Do the crime and socioeconomic strain affect the economic growth? A case of emerging ASEAN economy. J. of Sec. and Sust. Iss., 9(2), 391-407.
• Santos, M., Testa, A. and Weiss, D. (2021). Inflation and crossnational homicide: assessing nonlinear and moderation effects across 65 countries, 1965–2015. Int. Cri. Jus. Rev., 31(2), 122-139.
• Sarvaria, R. (2019). Crime as a choice: crime and economic conditions. Center for Criminal Law Studies.
• Seals, R and Nunley, J (2007). The effects of inflation and demographic change on property crime: a structural time-series approach. Working Paper 200701, Middle Tennessee St. Uni.
• Schleimer, J., Pear, V., McCort, C., Shev, A., De Biasi, A., Tomsich, E., Buggs, S., Laqueur, H. and Wintemute, G. (2022). Unemployment and crime in US cities during the Coronavirus Pandemic. J Urb. H., 99, 82-91.
• Selmonaj, D. and Morina, F. (2021). The effect of unemployment on the crime rate: comparative analysis between Western Balkan Countries and selected EU countries (2012-2018). Proceedings of FEB Zagreb 12th International Odyssey Con. on Econ. and Bus., 440-460.
• Stigler, G. J. (1970). The optimum enforcement of laws. J. Pol. Econ., 78, 526–536.
• Tabar, S. and Noghani, M. (2019). Unemployment and crime in developing countries: a meta-analysis in Iran. Crime, Law and Soc. Ch., 72, 327-338.
• Tang, C. and Lean, H. (2007). Will inflation increase crime rate? new evidence from bounds and modified Wald tests. Gl. Crime, 8(4), 311-323.
• Tang, C. (2009). The linkages among inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia. Int. J. of Econ. and Man., 3(1), 50-61.
• Torruam, J. and Abur, C. (2014). The relationship between unemployment, inflation and crime: an application of cointegration and causality analysis in Nigeria. J. of Econ. and Sust. Dev., 5(4), 131-137.
• Ulucak, Z. and Bilgili, F. (2020). Sucun iktisadi analizi: Türkiye ve Avrupa ulkeleri uzerine bir uygulama. Sosyoekonomi, 28(46), 349-370.
• Umbach, T. (2020). A vicious cycle of regional unemployment and crime? - Evidence from German Counties. Leibniz Inf. Centre for Econ.
• Van Dijk, A. (2009). Essays on finite mixture models. PhD thesis, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
• Verma, A., Singh, A., Malik, H. and Ikram, T. (2022). System checking effect of unemployment and population on crime in India. Int. Res. J. of Mod. in Eng. Tech. and Sci., 4(5), 2165-2168.
• Wanzinack, C., Signorelli, M. and Reis, C. (2022). Violence and social determinants of health in Brazil: association between homicides, urbanization, population, inequality, and development. Cad. Saú. Púb., 38(10)