External Debt Stock and Human Capital Relationship: An Application in terms of Investment in Education and Health

Öz

In the study, the long run relationships between external debt and public investments in education and health are investigated. In the analysis, including annual time series data for the period 1989-2014, bound test based on ARDL model has been used to determine the long run relationships. The findings have shown that there is a positive long run relationship between external debt and public investments in education and health.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth, External Debt, Human Capital, Co-integration, Bound Test

Dış Borç ve Beşeri Sermaye İlişkisi: Eğitim ve Sağlık Yatırımları Açısından Bir Uygulama

Öz

Çalışmada, dış borç stoku ile kamunun eğitim ve sağlık yatırımları arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler incelenmiştir. 1989-2014 dönemi yıllık zaman serilerini içeren analizde uzun dönem ilişkileri tespit etmek için ARDL modeline dayalı sınır testi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye ekonomisinde dış borç ile kamu sağlık yatırımları ve dış borç ile kamu eğitim yatırımları arasında uzun dönemli pozitif yönlü ilişkinin olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Anahtar Kelimeler: Ekonomik Büyüme,Dış Borç, Beşeri Sermaye, Ko-entegrasyon, Sınır Testi

Kaynakça

1. Baldacci, E., Clements, B., Gupta, S. ve Cui., Q. (2004), “Social Spending, Human Capital, and Growth in Developing Countries: Implications for Achieving the MDGs”, IMF Working Paper, WP/04/217.
2. Bangura, S., Kitabire, D. ve Powell, R. (2000), “External Debt Management in Low-Income Countries”, IMF Working Paper, WP/00/196.
3. Berber M. (2006), İktisadi Büyüme ve Kalkınma, Derya Kitapevi, 3. Baskı, Trabzon.
4. Blavy, R. (2006), “Public Debt and Productivity: The Difficult Quest for Growth in Jamaica”, IMF Working Paper, WP/06/235.
5. Calderón, C., Easterly, W. ve Servėn, L. (2003), “Latin America’s Infrastructure in the Era of Macroeconomic Crisis”, The Limits of Stabilization: Infrastructure, Public Deficits, and Growth in Latin America, Ed:William Easterly ve Luis Serven, Stanford University Press, and The World Bank, 27162, Washington DC.
6. Cashel-Cordo, P. ve Craig, S. G. (1990), “The Public Sector Impact of International Resource Transfers”, Journal of Development Economics, 32(1), 17–42.
7. Depetris Chauvin, Nicolas ve Kraay, Aart (2005), “ What has 100 Billion Dollars Worth of Debt Relief Done for Low-Income Countries?” (https://ssrn.com/abstract=818504 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.818504 ,10.09.2015.
8. Clements, B., Bhattacharya, R. ve Nguyen, T. Q. (2003), “External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries”, IMF Working Paper, WP/03/249.

9. Dessy, S.E. ve Vencatachellum, D. (2007), “Debt Relief and Social Services Expenditure: The African Experience, 1989-2003”, African Development Review, 19(1), 200-216.
10. Dickey, D. ve Fuller, W. A. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
11. Durbarry, R., Seetanah, B. ve Padachi, K. (2008), “An Empirical Assessement of External Debt on Economic Growth: The Case of Africa in a Panel Var”, Journal of International Finance & Economics.
12. Dutta, I. (2007), “The Burden of Government Debt in the Indian States; Implications for the MDG Poverty Target”, Unonited Nations University, World Institute for Development Economics Research Paper, No: 2007/14.
13. Enders, W. (2004), Applied Econometric Time Series,2nd Edition, John Willey&Sons, USA.
14. Engle, Robert F. and C.W.J. Granger; (1987), “Cointegration and Error-Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
15. Fosu, A. K. (2007), “Fiscal Allocation for Education in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications of the External Debt Service Constraint”, World Development, 35 (4), 702-713.
16. Fosu, A. K. (2008), “Implications of the External Debt-Servicing Constraint for Public Health Expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Oxford Development Studies, 36(4), 363-377.
17. Hameed, A., Ashraf, H. ve Chaudhary, M.A. (2008), “External Debt and its Impact on Economic and Business Growth in Pakistan”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 20(20), 132-140.
18. Heller, P.S. ve Diamond, J. (1990), “International Comparisons of Government Expenditure Revisited: The Developing Countries 1975-86”, IMF Occasional Paper, 69.
19. Hepp, R. (2005), “Health Expenditures Under the HIPC Debt Initiative”, http://ssrn.com/abstract=819665, 10.09.2015
20. Hicks, N. L. (1989), “Expenditure Reductions in High-Debt Countries”, Finance and Development, 26, 35-37.
21. Hicks, N. L. (1991), “Expenditure Reductions in Developing Countries Revisited”, Journal of International Development, 3(1), 29-37.
22. Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
23. Lora, E.ve Olivera, M. (2007), “Public Debt and Social Expenditure: Friends or Foes?” Emerging Markets Review, 8(4), 299–310.
24. Mahdavi, S. (2004), “Shifts in the Composition of Government Spending in Response to External Debt Burden”, World Development, 32(7), 1139-1157.
25. Moss, T. J. ve Chiang, H. S. (2003), “The Other Costs of High Debt in Poor Countries: Growth, Policy Dynamics, and Institutions”, Center for Global Development, Issue Paper on Debt Sustainability, 3, 44271, Washington DC.
26. Pattillo, C., Poirson, H. ve Ricci, L., (2004), “What are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?”, IMF Working Paper, WP/ 04/15.
27. Peseran, Hashem M., Yongcheol Shin ve Richard Smith (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289- 326.
28. Serieux, J. ve Samy, Y. (2001), “The Debt Service Burden and Growth: Evidence From Low Income Countries”, The North-South Institute, Canada, http://website1.wider.uni.edu/ confarance/confarance2001.2/parallel%20papers/4_2_Serieux.pdf,11.09.2015
29. Tanrıkulu, K. (1983), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Dış Borç İlişkisinin Değerlendirilmesi”, DPT, Yayınlanmamış Uzmanlık Tezi, Ankara.
30. Thomas, A. (2006), “Do Debt-Service Savings and Grants Boost Social Expenditures?”, IMF Working Paper, WP/06/180.
31. Ünsal, E. M. (2009), Makro İktisat, İmaj Yayınevi, 8. Baskı, Ankara.