Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler ve Cari İşlemler Dengesinin Uzun Dönem Belirleyicileri

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 4, 1 - 11, 30.12.2019

Oğuz Tümtürk

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde genelde açık verme eğiliminde olan cari işlemler dengesini ve bu dengeyi uzun dönemde etkileyen
makroekonomik değişkenleri analiz etmektir. Çalışmada, cari işlem dengesini etkileyen temel faktörler Türkiye, Meksika, Kolombiya, Polonya ve Güney
Afrika gelişmekte olan ülkeleri için ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model) sınır testi (bound test) ve hata düzeltme modeli aracılığıyla analiz
edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, söz konusu ülkelerde cari işlemler dengesinin en çok etkilendiği değişkenlerin reel efektif döviz kuru, dış ticaret dengesi ve para
arzında meydana gelen değişimler olduğunu ortaya koymuşur. Bununla birlikte, ikiz açık hipotezinin Türkiye ve Güney Afrika’da geçerli olduğu
yönünde bulgulara ulaşılırken, bütçe dengesi ve dış dünya faiz oranları cari işlemler dengesi üzerinde daha az etkili faktörler olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Denge, Sınır Testi, Hata Düzeltme Modeli

Kaynakça

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