Ekonomi Güven Endeksi ve Bileşik Göstergeler: Birleşik Krallık Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışma, Avrupa Komisyonu tarafından hesaplanan iktisadi duyarlılık göstergelerinin ve Ekonomik Kalkınma ve İş birliği Örgütü tarafından hesaplanan bileşik öncü göstergelerin oluşumunu incelemektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, bazı ülkeler için Avrupa Komisyonu İktisadi Duyarlılık Göstergelerinin güncel tesadüfi performansını değerlendirmek ve iktisadi eylemlerde döngüleri önceden tahmin edebilecek duyarlılık göstergeleri oluşturma ihtimallerini araştırmaktır. Özel olarak da aşağıdaki konular; Bileşen dizilerinin seçilmesi: ülkeler için standart veya en iyi performans gösteren bileşenler, Bileşen dizilerinin ağırlık andırılması: bireysel bileşenler veya kümeler için farklı veya eşit ağırlıklar, Döngüsel genişliklerin normalleştirilmesi ve bileşen dizilerinin düzleştirilmesi, Bileşen dizilerinin (hızlı-çok çabuk) ulaşılabilirliği ve revizyonları tartışılmıştır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Güven Endeksi,İktisadi Yönelim Anketi,, Avrupa Komisyonu,, Bileşen Dizileri,İktisadi Duyarlılık

Economic Setlement Index and Compound Indicators: Case of UK

Öz

This study examines the formation of indicators of economic sensitivity calculated by the European Commission and composite leading indicators calculated by the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation. The aim of the study is to evaluate the current random performance of the European Commission's Economic Sensitivity Indicators for some countries and to investigate the possibility of generating sensitivity indicators that can predict cycles in economic actions. In particular, the following issues were discussed ; Selection of component arrays: standard or best performing components for countries,Weighting of component arrays: different or equal weights for individual components or clusters,Normalization of cyclic amplitudes and flattening of component arrays and Availability of component sequences (fast-to-quick) and revisions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Confidence Index,Business Tendency Survey,European Commission,Component Sequences,Economic Sensitivity

Kaynakça

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