Para ve Maliye Politikalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Irak Ekonomisi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma

Yıl 2021, , 6 - 32, 30.06.2021

Yaşar Köse , Sakar Alı

https://doi.org/10.35342/econder.881909

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı, para ve maliye politikalarının Irak'taki ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini açıklamaktır. Bağımlı değişken ekonomik büyüme oranıdır ve bağımsız değişkenler döviz kuru, enflasyon, parasal bir araç olarak M2, mali araçlar olarak kamu borcu, kamu harcamaları ve devlet geliridir. Veriler Irak Merkez Bankası'ndan alınmıştır ve 2005-2019 dönemini kapsamaktadır. ARDL Bound Test ve OLS, sırasıyla para ve maliye politikalarının büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini tahmin etmek için kullanılmıştır. Para politikası açısından döviz kurunun ekonomik büyümeye zarar verdiğini, enflasyon ve para arzının ise ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilediğini ortaya koyulmuştur. Maliye politikası açısından bakıldığında, devlet borçlarının ve devlet harcamalarının büyüme üzerindeki etkileri olumsuz, devlet gelirleri ise olumlu olduğu belirlenmiştir.              

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme, Maliye Politikası, Para Politikası, Enflasyon, Devlet Gelir ve Harcamaları

Destekleyen Kurum

-

Proje Numarası

-

Teşekkür

Teşekkür Ederim.

Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth: An Empirical Study On The Iraqi Economy

Öz

The purpose of the study is to explain the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on economic growth in Iraq. The dependent variable is the economic growth rate, and independent ones are exchange rate, inflation, M2 as a monetary instrument, while public debt, public expenditure, and government revenue are as fiscal instruments. The data were obtained from the Central Bank of Iraq and covers the period of 2005-2019. ARDL Bound Test and OLS were used to estimate the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on growth respectively. As for monetary policy, the results revealed that the exchange rate harms economic growth, while inflation and money supply positively affect economic growth. In terms of fiscal policy, the effects of government debt and government spending on growth seemed to be negative, while government revenues seemed to be positive

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, Fiscal policy, Monetary Policy, Inflation, Government Revenue, and Spending

Proje Numarası

-

Kaynakça

• Referans1Abiola, J., and A. Moses (2018). Impact of Tax Administration on Government Revenue in a Developing Economy–A Case Study of Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Social Science Leicester Business School De Montfort University Department of Accounting and Finance Leicester, UK.
• Referans2Adefeso, H.A., and H. I. Mobolaji (2010). “The Fiscal-Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Further Empirical Evidence”, Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 7(2), 137–42.
• Referans3Ajisafe, R.A., and B. A. Folorunso (2002). “The Relative Effectiveness of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Macroeconomic Management in Nigeria.” The African Economic and Business Review, 3(1), 23–40.
• Referans4Ahlborn, Markus; Schweickert, Rainer (2016). "Public debt and economic growth: Economic systems matter", Econstor.cege Discussion Papers, No. 281
• Referans5Akacem, M., D.D. Miller, and J.L. Faulkner (2020). Oil, Institutions, and Sustainability in MENA., Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020.
• Referans6Ali S, Fazli R, Umar H.A., and Naveed A. (2013). "The composition of public expenditures and economic growth: evidence from Pakistan". International Journal of Social Economics The current issue and full-text archive of this journal is available at www.emeraldinsight.com/0306-8293.htm
• Referans7Alkasasbeh O.M. A., and N. . Haron (2018). “Fiscal Policy and Its Relationship with Economic Growth : A Review Study", Saudi Journal of Business and Management Studies (SJBMS), 3(12), 1318-1323
• Referans8Ayodeji, A., and Oluwole, A. (2018). Impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria.OpenAccess Library Journal, 5(2), 1-12.
• Referans9Bain, M.K., and P. Howells (2003). Monetary Economics: Policy and Its Theoretical Basis. Macmillan International Higher Education.
• Referans10Basirat, M., A. Nasirpour, and A. Jorjorzadeh (2014). “The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Economic Growth Considering the Level of Development of Financial Markets in Selected Developing Countries.” Asian Economic and Financial Review, 4(4), 517–28.
• Referans11Bayrak, R.(2019). "Does the Optimal Size of Defense Expenditure Exist?, An Empirical Study on Turkey", The Journal of Defense Sciences, May 2019, 18(1), 135-160.
• Referans12Bayrak, R. (2020). “Optimal Public Expenditure in Sustainable Development”, Sustainable Development: Interdiciplined Approach (Eds: Rıza Bayrak and Mustafa Polat), Ankara: Nobel Publications.
• Referans13Bernanke, B., Olekalns, N., and Frank, R. H. (2008). Principles of Macroeconomics. Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education/Australia.
• Referans14Benhabib J. and Spiegel M.M. (2009). "Moderate inflation and the deflation–depression link", Jornal of money, Credit andBanking, 41(40),787-798.
• Referans15Brown, R L., J. Durbin, and J.M. Evans (1975). “Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2),149–63.
• Referans16Buyandelger, O. E. (2015). “Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect and Monetary Policy in Mongolia: Small Open Economy DSGE Model.” Procedia Economics and Finance, 26, 1185–92.
• Referans17Çetin, M., E. Ecevit, F. Seker, and D. Günaydin (2015). “Financial Development and Energy Consumption in Turkey: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests.”, p.297–314 in Handbook of Research on Behavioral Finance and Investment Strategies: Decision Making in the Financial Industry. IGI Global.
• Referans18Chen, J . (2012 ). Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Data (1992 - 2008). 2012. halshs-00667467f
• Referans19Chowdhury, A. R., J. S. Fackler, and W. D. McMillin (1986). “Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis,” Southern Economic Journal, 52(3), 794–806.
• Referans20Congress.gov. "H.R.8 - American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012", https://www.congress.gov/bill/112th-congress/house-bill/8, Accessed Date: 23 September 2019.
• Referans21Cornelius M. Ojong, Ogar Anthony. Oka Felix Arikpo.(2016)The Impact of Tax Revenue on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF)e-ISSN: 2321-5933, p-ISSN: 2321-5925.Volume 7, Issue 1. Ver. I (Jan. -Feb. 2016), PP 32-38
• Referans22Cyrus, M. (2014). “Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks and Economic Growth in Kenya: VAR Econometric Approach.” Journal of World Economic Research, 3(6), 95- 108.
• Referans23Dai F, and Wu. S (2013), Money supply and economic growth under environmental pressure: the strategy for re-growth. J. Monetary Economics and Finance, Vol. 6, No. 1, 2013.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264813564.
• Referans24Devarajan, S., V. Swaroop, and H. Zou (1996). “The Composition of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 37(2), 313–44.
• Referans25Dornbusch, R. Stanley, F. and Richard, S (2011).Study Guide to Accompany Dornbusch and Fischer Macroeconomics. New York: McGraw-Hill.
• Referans26Lupu, D., Mihai Bogdan Petrisor, Ana Bercu, and Mihaela Tofan (2018).The Impact of Public Expenditures on Economic.Growth: A Case Study of Central and Eastern European Countries, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, European Countries Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.ISSN: 1540-496X (Print) 1558-0938 (Online) Journal homepage: tttp://www.tandfonline.com/loi/mree20
• Referans27Eichenbaum, M., Johannsen, B. K., and Rebelo, S. (2017). Monetary policy and the predictability of nominal exchange rates (No. w23158). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w23158.pdf
• Referans28Elliott, J. Walter. 1975. “The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Actions on Total Spending: The St. Louis Total Spending Equation Revisited.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 7(2):181–92.
• Referans29Elmendorf, D., and N. G. Mankiw. 1999. “Government Debt.” In J. B. Taylor and M. Business Economics National Association for Business Economics.Vol. 50, No. 4 Woodford (eds.). Handbook of Macroeconomics. Vol. 1C. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: North-Holland
• Referans30Fridman, M., and D. Meiselmen (1963). The Relative Stability of Monetary Velocity and the Investment Multiplier in the United States, 1897-1958, Stabilization Policies: A series of Research Studies Prepared for the Commission on Money and Credit, Brown, E.C and Commission on Money and Credit, Eds1963, pp 165-268 Gujarati, D.N 2003.Basic Econometrics, New York: McGraw- Hill Companies.
• Referans31Foluso A. Akinsola, Nicholas M. Odhiambo (2017). "Inflation and Economic Growth: a Review of The International Literature", Comparative Economic Research, 20(3). Comparative Economic Research, Volume 20, Number 3, 2017 10.1515/cer-2017-0019.
• Referans32Gujarati, D. N. 2003. Basic Econometrics, New York: McGraw-Hill Companies.
• Referans33Gujarati, D. N., and D. Porter (2009). Basic Econometrics, Mc Graw-Hill International Edition.
• Referans34Gujarati, D. N., and D. C. Porter (1999). Essentials of Econometrics. Vol. 2. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Singapore.
• Referans35Gurdal, T ., Aydin., M. Inal V.(2020 0 The relationship between tax revenue, government expenditure, and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from time and frequency domain approach. Economic Change and Restructuring https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-020-09280-x
• Referans36Hameed, I., and Amen, U. (2011). Impact of Monetary Policy on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Interdisciplinary journal of Contemporary Research in Business, 3(1), 1348-1361.
• Referans37Hasanov, F (2011). "Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in Azerberbaijani Economy: Is There Any Threshold Effect?", Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 1-11, 2011 11 Pages Posted: 19 Sep 2011
• Referans38Hasnul, Al Gifari (2015). “The Effects of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: The Case of Malaysia”, MPRA Paper No. 71254
• Referans39Hemming R, Michacl K., and Axel S. (2003) Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies "Article in IMF Occasional Papers'' International Monetary Fund, Publication Services 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5120165.
• Referans40Ihsan, I., and Anjum, S. (2013). Impact of Money Supply (M2) on the GDP of Pakistan. Global Journal of Management and Business Research Finance, 13(10): 1. Publisher: Global Journals Inc. (USA)Online ISSN: 2249-4588 & Print ISSN: 0975-5853.
• Referans41Jan Jacobs, Kazuo Ogawa, Elmer Sterken, and Ichiro Tokutsu 2019. Public Debt, Economic Growth, and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries.Applied Economics. Published online: 30 Sep 2019
• Referans42Jawaid, S. T., Quadri, F. S., and Ali, N. (2011). Monetary-fiscal-trade policy and economic growth Pakistan Time Seris Empirical Investigation. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 1(3), 133-138.
• Referans43Jeffrey M. Stupak. (2019). Fiscal Policy: Economic Effects Analyst in Macroeconomic Policy. Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R45723.May 16, 2019.
• Referans44Joseph, F. I., and C.O. Omodero, (2020). The Nexus Between Government Revenue AND Economic Growth in NigeriaEconomics and Business ISSN 2256-0394 (online), https://content.sciendo.com, Accessed date: 06.08.2020.
• Referans45Kasidi, F. Mwakanemela, K. (2013). "Impact of inflation on economic growth: A case study of Tanzania", Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4), 363-380. http://aessweb.com/journal-detail.php?id=5004
• Referans46Kasim, M.Mudhher.S. (2012). Monetary Policy of Iraq Building Macroeconomic Stability and Maintaining Saund Financial Regime. Deputy Governor Central Bank of Iraq Baghdad-April/2012.
• Referans47Kimberly, A. (2018). “Monetarism Explained with Examples, Role of Milton Friedman.”, https://www.thebalance.com/m onetarism-and-how-it-works-3305866, Accessed date: 02.08.2019.
• Referans48Kogid, M., R. Asid, J. Lilly, D. Mulok, and N. Loganathan (2012). "The Effect of Exchange Rates on Economic Growth: Empirical Testing on Nominal Versus Real", The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, 0(1), 7-17.
• Referans48Korkmaz, S. (2013). “The Effect of Exchange Rate on Economic Growth.” in Conference paper Oct 2013 Bandirma onyedi Eylul University 42 Publication 165 citation.
• Referans49Kumar, M. S., and J. Woo. 2010. “Public Debt and Growth.” IMF Working Paper WP/10/174. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
• Referans50Kweka, J.P. and Oliver M. (2002). Government Spending and Economic Growth in Tanzania, 1965-1996. Research Paper, No. 00/6, The University of Nottingham, Centre for Research in Economic Development and International Trade (CREDIT), Nottingham.
• Referans51Majumder, S. C. (2016). “Inflation and Its Impacts on Economic Growth of Bangladesh.” American Journal of Marketing Research, 2(1),17–26.
• Referans52Mallik, G., and A. Chowdhury (2001). “Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Four South Asian Countries”, Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8(1), 123–35.
• Referans53Morrison, K.M. (2009). "Oil, nontax revenue and the redistribution foundations of regime stability", International Organisation, 63(1), 107–138.
• Referans54Mourre, G, and Reut A. (2018). "Non-tax revenue in the European Union: A source of fiscal risk?", Int Tax Public Finance, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-018-9498-z Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.
• Referans55Mugableh, M. I. (2019). “Fiscal Policy Tools and Economic Growth in Jordan: Evidence from Time-Series Models”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 11(1), 1–7.
• Referans56Muhammad, S.D., S.K.A. Wasti, A. Hussain, and I. Lal (2009). “An Empirical Investigation between Money Supply Government Expenditure, Output & Prices: The Pakistan Evidence”, European Journal of Economics, Finance, and Administrative Sciences, (17), 60-68. ISSN 1450-2887 Issue 17 (2009) EuroJournals, Inc. 2009 http://www.eurojournals.com.
• Referans57Newbold, P., and C. W. J. Granger (1974). “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics.” Journal of Econometrics, 2(2),111–120.
• Referans58Nkoro, E., and A. K. Uko (2016). “Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Cointegration Technique: Application and Interpretation.”, Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 5(4), 63–91.
• Referans59Nurudeen, A., & Usman, A. (2010). Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria1970-2008: A Disaggregated Analysis. Business and Economics Journal, 1–11.
• Referans60Nyasha S. and M. Nicholas (2019). "The Impact of Public Expenditure on Economic Growth: A review of International Literature", Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia 19(2),
• Referans61Ogbole F.O., S.N. Amadi ana I.D. Essi (2011). "Fiscal policy: Its impact on economic growth in Nigeria" Journal of Economics and International Finance, 3(6), 407-417.
• Referans62Ogunmuyiwa, M. S., and A. F. Ekone (2010). “Money Supply-Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria”, Journal of Social Sciences, 22(3), 199–204.
• Referans63Omodero, C. O. (2019). Effect of money supply on economic growth: A comparative study of Nigeria and Ghana", International Journal of Social Science Studies, 7, 16-23.
• Referans64Onuorah, A. C, and Akujuobi, L.E. 2012.Empirical Analysis of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth of Nigeria. Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review (OMAN Chapter), 1(11), Vol.1.Na.11.June 2012.
• Referans65Osuala, A. E., K. I. Osuala, and S. C. Onyeike (2013). “Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth in Nigeria–A Causality Test”, Journal of Research in National Development, 11(1), 206–16.
• Referans66Panizza, U., and A. F. Presbitero (2013). “Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey.” Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 149(2),175–204.
• Referans67Paul C., R. Van Der Ploeg, M. Spence, and Anthony J. Venables (2010). "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies", IMF Staff Papers, 57(1), International Monetary Fund
• Referans67Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin, and R. P. Smith. (1999). “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621–34.
• Referans68Prasert, C., Kanchana, C., Chukiat, C., & Monekeo, K. (2015). "Money supply influencing on Economic growth wide phenomena of AECopen ergion", Procedia Economics and Finance, 24(2015), 108-115. https://doi.org/1016/S2212-5671(15)00626-7.
• Referans69Puig, M,G. (2013). Public debt and economic growth: Further evidence for the euro area.” Risckcenter Research group–IREA. Av. Diagonal 696; 08034 Barcelona,Spain
• Referans70Rahman, M. H. (2005). “Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Output Growth in Bangladesh: A VAR Approach”, Policy Analysis Unit Bangladesh Working Paper WP0601.
• Referans71Rahman, N. H. A., S. Ismail and A. R. Ridzuan (2019). “How Does Public Debt Affect Economic Growth? A Systematic Review”,Cogent Business & Management, 6(1),1701-339. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2019.1701339.
• Referans72Rapach D.E. (2003), International evidence on the long-run impact of inflation, ʻJournal of Money Credit, and Banking,35(1),23-48.
• Referans73Reinhart, Carmen M., Kenneth S. Rogoff.Growth in a Time of Debt. National Bureau of Economic Research 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 January. Working Paper 15639 http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639.
• Referans74Riyadh, M. Lubis, G. Abdul, N, K (2017). "Exchange Rate Effect on Gross Domestic Product in the Five Founding Members of ASEAN", International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 7(11), ISSN: 2222-6990
• Referans75Senbet, D. (2011). “The Relative Impact of Fiscal versus Monetary Actions on Output: A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Approach”, Business and Economics Journal, 25, 1-11
• Referans76Sheilla Nyasha and Nicholas M. Odhiambo. 2019. The Impact of Public Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature. Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia Volume 19 (2019) Issue 2
• Referans77Shrestha, M. B., and G. R. Bhatta (2018). “Selecting appropriate methodological framework", The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 4(2), 71–89. Received 1 July 2017; revised 3 November 2017; accepted 6 November 2017 Available online 14 February 2018.
• Referans78Tatli, H., and F. Lebe (2017). “The Relationship of Naturalgas Consumption, Capital and Employment with Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration and Causality Analysis”, İzmir Journal of Economics, 32(1), 1-28.
• Referans79Three, Chapter. (2020). “Fiscal Restraint in the Budget Process.” 35–42. Received 1 July 2017; revised 3 November 2017; accepted 6 November 2017 Available online 14 February 2018
• Referans80Trotman-Dickenson, D. I. (1996). “Fiscal Policy in Relation to Economic Growth and the Standard of Living.” p. 452–58 in Economics of the Public Sector. by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WlP 9HE.
• Referans81Tule M. K, Samuel F. O, Godday. U.E (2020). "Monetary and fiscal policy mix in a small open economy: Evidence from Nigeria" Elsevier Business District, P.M.B. 0187, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria.
• Referans82Twinoburyo, E. N., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2017). Monetary policy and economic growth: A review Of International Literature. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 2, 123-137.
• Referans83Ufoeze, L. O., S. O. Odimgbe, V. N. Ezeabalisi, and U. B. Alajekwu (2018). “Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation” Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, 9(1),123–40.
• Referans84Wai, U. T, (1995) “The Relation between Inflation and Economic Development: A Statistical Inductive Study”, IMF Staff Papers, 7, 302-317
• Referans85Xianglan, M., and L. Xi (2011). “The Research of Relationship among Money Supply and Economic Growth and the Price in China [J]” Statistical Research 3, 65, 232-244.
• Referans86Zdaniuk, B (2014). Ordinary Least-Squares (OLS) Model. Netherland: Springer,
• Referans87Zengin, G., A. Aktumsek, R. Ceylan, S. Uysal, A. Mocan, G. O. Guler, M. F. Mahomoodally, J. Glamočlija, A. Ćirić, and M. Soković (2017). “Shedding Light on the Biological and Chemical Fingerprints of Three Achillea Species (A. Biebersteinii, A. Millefolium, and A. Teretifolia)”, Food & Function, 8(3),1152–65.