The Evolution of Currency Crises: Theoretical Models, Historical Experiences, and an Analysis of Turkey

Öz

Since the 1990s, an era marked by accelerated financial globalization, currency crises have manifested as a systemic instability phenomenon of increasing frequency, depth, and cost, particularly for emerging markets. This study aims to synthesize the evolution of theoretical models designed to explain the etiology of currency crises with the historical experiences upon which these models are based. In light of this analytical framework, the paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the crises experienced by Turkey in 1994 and 2001. The article addresses the credibility-flexibility dilemma central to the choice of an exchange rate regime and the fundamental determinants of currency movements (the Monetarist Approach, Dornbusch's (1976) Overshooting Model, Purchasing Power Parity, and the Balassa-Samuelson Effect) within the context of the "Impossible Trinity," a core axiom of international macroeconomics. It examines the evolution of the crisis literature through three generations of models—based on fiscal determinism, expectation-driven multiple equilibria, and financial fragility—by substantiating them with landmark cases from the collapse of Bretton Woods to the crises in the European Monetary System (EMS), Mexico, Asia, and Argentina. On this theoretical and historical foundation, the study posits that Turkey's 1994 crisis can largely be understood through the dynamics of First-Generation models, whereas the 2001 crisis is better explained by a complex intersection of Second and Third-Generation models, all within the context of structural vulnerabilities that escalated after the liberalization of its capital account in 1989. The study positions the 1994 crisis as the inevitable outcome of chronic public deficits and an inconsistent policy mix. In contrast, it frames the 2001 crisis as a "twin crisis" triggered by the strategic testing of a fragile exchange rate regime and profound balance sheet mismatches in the banking sector (the "original sin" problem). Ultimately, the paper underscores the critical role of macroprudential policies, a robust and autonomous banking supervision architecture, capital flow management tools, and a holistic policy framework in enhancing institutional resilience against future crises.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Currency Crises
• Crisis Models
• Financial Fragility
• Capital Account Liberalization
• Twin Crisis
• Impossible Trinity
• Balance Sheet Effect
• Turkish Economy.

Döviz Krizlerinin Evrimi: Teorik Modeller, Tarihsel Deneyimler ve Türkiye Analizi

Öz

Finansal küreselleşmenin hız kazandığı 1990'lı yıllardan itibaren döviz krizleri, bilhassa gelişmekte olan piyasalar için sıklığı, derinliği ve maliyeti artan sistemik bir istikrarsızlık olgusu olarak tezahür etmiştir. Bu çalışma, döviz krizlerinin etiyolojisini açıklamaya yönelik teorik modellerin evrimini ve bu modellerin dayandığı tarihsel deneyimleri sistematik bir çerçevede sentezlemeyi ve bu analitik birikim ışığında Türkiye’nin 1994 ve 2001 yıllarında yaşadığı krizleri derinlemesine analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Makale, uluslararası makroekonominin temel aksiyomlarından olan "İmkânsız Üçleme" ilkesi bağlamında, döviz kuru rejimi seçiminin merkezindeki kredibilite-esneklik ikilemini ve kur hareketlerinin temel belirleyicilerini (Parasalcı Yaklaşım, Dornbusch’un (1976) Aşırı Değerlenme Modeli, Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi, Balassa-Samuelson Etkisi) ele almaktadır. Kriz literatürünün evrimini yansıtan üç nesil model (mali determinizm, beklenti odaklı çoklu denge ve finansal kırılganlık temelli), Bretton Woods’un çöküşünden Avrupa Para Sistemi (EMS), Meksika, Asya ve Arjantin krizlerine uzanan dönüm noktası niteliğindeki vakalarla somutlaştırılarak incelenmektedir. Bu teorik ve tarihsel zemin üzerinde, Türkiye'nin 1989’da sermaye hesabını liberalleştirmesinin ardından artan yapısal kırılganlıkları bağlamında, 1994 krizinin büyük ölçüde Birinci Nesil model dinamikleriyle, 2001 krizinin ise İkinci ve Üçüncü Nesil modellerin karmaşık bir kesişimiyle anlaşılabileceği tezi ileri sürülmektedir. Çalışma, 1994 krizini kronik kamu açıkları ve tutarsız politika bileşiminin kaçınılmaz bir sonucu; 2001 krizini ise kırılgan bir kur rejiminin stratejik olarak test edilmesi ve bankacılık sektöründeki derin bilanço uyumsuzluklarının ("orijinal günah" sorunu) tetiklediği bir "ikiz kriz" olarak konumlandırmaktadır. Nihayetinde, gelecekteki krizlere karşı kurumsal dayanıklılığı artırmak için makro ihtiyati politikaların, güçlü ve özerk bir bankacılık denetim mimarisinin, sermaye akımları yönetim araçlarının ve bütüncül bir politika çerçevesinin kritik rolü vurgulanmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Döviz Krizleri
• Kriz Modelleri
• Finansal Kırılganlık
• Sermaye Hesabı Liberalleşmesi
• İkiz Kriz
• İmkansız Üçleme
• Bilanço Etkisi
• Türkiye Ekonomisi.

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