Statistical and Graphical Analysis of Trend Changes in Lake Water Levels and Precipitation Series

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 90 - 98, 31.07.2025

Taner Mustafa Cengiz

https://doi.org/10.55581/ejeas.1718675

Öz

Integrating graphical and statistical approaches can be an effective method to reduce the assumptions required by statistical techniques and enhance the reliability of results in time series analysis. In this study, the Innovative Trend Analysis with Change Boxes (ITA-CB), an enhanced model of the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), was applied to analyze lake water levels and precipitation data. The ITA-CB method enables researchers to detect trends in detail and classify data interpretatively.
The results demonstrated that trends undetected by the statistical Mann-Kendall (MK) test could be identified more precisely across different data intervals using the ITA-CB graphical method. Particularly under conditions of high data variability, the ITA-CB method proved capable of detecting diverse trends across different groups, especially in precipitation data, with greater sensitivity.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Lake Water Level , Precipitation Time Series , Trend Analysis , Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) , Innovative Trend Analysis with Change Boxes (ITA-CB).

Proje Numarası

-

Göl Su Seviyeleri ve Yağış Serilerinde Eğilim Değişimlerinin İstatistiksel ve Grafiksel Analizi

Öz

Zaman serilerindeki değişimleri analiz ederken, istatistiksel yöntemlerin varsayımlarını azaltmak ve sonuçların güvenilirliğini artırmak için grafiksel ve istatistiksel yaklaşımların birlikte kullanılması etkili bir yöntem olabilir. Bu çalışmada, Yenilikçi Trend Analizinin (ITA) geliştirilmiş bir modeli olan Yenilikçi Trend Analizi Değişim Kutuları (ITA-CB) yöntemi, göl su seviyeleri ve göller üzerine düşen yağış verilerinin analizi için uygulanmıştır. ITA-CB yöntemi, araştırmacılara eğilimleri ayrıntılı şekilde belirleme ve verileri yorumlayıcı şekilde sınıflandırma imkânı sağlamaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, istatistiksel yöntemlerden biri olan Mann-Kendall (MK) testi ile tespit edilemeyen eğilimlerin, ITA-CB grafik yöntemi ile farklı veri aralıklarında daha hassas biçimde belirlenebildiğini göstermiştir. Özellikle verilerin yüksek değişkenlik gösterdiği durumlarda, bu çalışmada yağış verileri üzerinde ITA-CB yönteminin farklı gruplarda çeşitli eğilimleri daha duyarlı bir şekilde tespit edebildiği ortaya konmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Göl su seviyesi , Yağış Zaman Serisi , Eğilim Analizi , Yenilikçi Trend Analizi (ITA) , Yenilikçi Trend Analizi Değişim Kutuları (ITA-CB)

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışmada kullanılan tüm veriler kamuya açık kaynaklardan elde edilmiş olup, herhangi bir canlı organizma, insan veya hayvan denek üzerinde deneysel bir uygulama yapılmamıştır. Bu nedenle etik kurul onayı gerekmemektedir. Yazar, çalışmanın bilimsel ve etik kurallara uygun olarak hazırlandığını, intihal, sahtecilik, çarpıtma, tekrar yayım gibi etik ihlaller yapılmadığını beyan eder. Ayrıca bu çalışma herhangi bir çıkar çatışması içermemektedir.

Destekleyen Kurum

-

Proje Numarası

-

Teşekkür

Bu makalenin oluşmasında yardımları bulunan Lacey Mason - NOAA Federal’e teşekkür ederim.

Kaynakça

• Akinsanola, A.A., Ogunjobi, K.O., “Recent homogeneity analysis and long-term spatio-temporal rainfall trends in Nigeria,” Theoretical and Appllied Climatology, vol. 128, no.1-2, pp. 275-289, 2017.
• Pendergrass, A. G., R. Knutti, F. Lehner, C. Deser, and B. M. Sanderson, “Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate,” Scientific Reports, vol. 7, 17966, 2017.
• Mathbout, S., Lopez-Bustins, J. A., Martin-Vide, J., Bech, J., Rodrigo, F.S. “Spatial and temporal analysis of drought variability at several time scales in Syria during 1961–2012,” Atmospheric Research, vol. 200, pp.153-168, 2018.
• Tabari, H., Willems, P. “More prolonged droughts by the end of the century in the Middle East,” Environmental Research Letters, vol.13, no. 10, pp. 104005, 2018.
• Vicente-Serrano, S. M., “Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: an analysis of the Iberian Peninsula,” Water Resources Management, vol. 20. no. 1, pp. 37-60, 2006.
• Doblas-Miranda, E., et al., “Reassessing global change research priorities in Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems: how far have we come and where do we go from here? ,” Global Ecological and Biogeogaphy. vol. 24, no.1, pp. 25–43, 2015.
• Nashwan, M.S., Shahid, S., Wang, X., “Uncertainty in estimated trends using gridded rainfall data: A case study of Bangladesh”, Water, vol.11, no. 2, pp. 349, 2019.
• Pandey, B. K., Khare, D., “Identification of trend in long term precipitation and reference evapotranspiration over Narmada river basin (India). Global Planet Change, vol.161, pp. 172-182, 2018.
• Tabari, H., “Statistical analysis and stochastic modelling of hydrological extremes,” Water, vol. 11, pp. 1861, 2019.
• Onyutha, C., “Identification of sub-trends from hydro-meteorological series,” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, vol. 30, pp.189–205, 2016.
• Onyutha, C., “Statistical analyses of potential evapotranspiration changes over the period 1930–2012 in the Nile River riparian countries,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 80. no. 95, 2016.
• Tabari, H., Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P., “Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran: 1966-2005,” Journal of Hydrology, vol.396, pp.313–320, 2011.
• Westra, S., Alexander, L.V., Zwiers, F.W., “Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation,” Journal Climate, vol.26. no.11, pp. 3904-3918, 2013.
• Karandish, F., Mousavi, S.S., Tabari, H., “Climate change impact on precipitation and cardinal temperatures in different climatic zones in Iran: Analyzing the probable effects on cereal water-use efficiency,” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, vol. 31, no. 8, pp. 2121–2146, 2017.
• Shiru, M.S., Shahid, S., Chung, E.S.and Alias, N., “Changing characteristics of meteorological droughts in Nigeria during 1901–2010,” Atmospheric Research, vol. 223, pp. 60-73, 2019.
• Dudley, R. W., Hirsch, R. M., Archfield, S. A., Blum, A. G., Renard, B., “Low streamflow trends at human-impacted and reference basins in the United States,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 580, pp. 124254, 2019.
• Simons, D. B. ve Şentürk, F., “Sediment transport technology water and sediment dynamics”, Water Resources Publications, 1992.
• Bloomfield, P., “Trends in Global Temperatures,” Clim. Change, vol.21, pp.1-16, 1992.
• Pilon, A. J., Winkler,T., Harvey, K. D., Kimmett, D.R., “Hydrometric data in support of climatic change studies in Canada. Presented at NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Opportunities for Hydrological Data in Support of Climate Change Studies,” Lahnstein, Germany, pp. 26-30, 1991.
• Anderson, J. E., S.Y., Harvey, K. D., “Preliminary investigation of trend/pattern in surface water characteristics and climate variations,” In Kite, G.W., Harvey,K. D.(Eds.). Using Hydrometric Data to Detect and Monitor Climatic Change Proceedings , pp. 987–998, 1992.
• Burn, D. H., Soulis, E. D., “The use of hydrologic variables in detecting climatic change:possibilities for single station and regional analysis,” In Kite, G.W., Harvey,K.D.(Eds.). Using Hydrometric Data to Detect and MonitorClimatic Change Proceedings of NHRI Workshop No.8 National Hydrology Research Institue, Saskatoon, SK, pp. 121-130, 1992.
• Hirsch, R.M., Slack, J.R.,Smith,R.A., “Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data,” Water Resources Research, vol.187, pp. 107-121, 1982.
• Lettenmair, D.P., Wood, E. F. and Wallis, J.R., “Hydro-Climatological Trends İn The Continental United States,” Journal Climate, vol.7, pp. 586-607, 1994.
• Changnon and Kunkel, “Climate-Related Fluctation in Midwestern Floods During 1921-198,” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, vol.121, no. 4, 1995.
• Doglas, E.M., Vogel, R.M., C.N. Kroll, “Trends in Floods and Low Flows in The United Stataes: Impact of Spatial Correlation,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 240, pp. 90-115, 2000.
• Zhang, R. Brown, L. Vincent, W. Skinner, Y. Feng and E. Mekis, “Canadian climate trends, 1950‐2007. Canadian Biodiversity: Ecosystem Status and Trends,” Technical Thematic Report Series, no. 5, 2010.
• Donald H. Burn and Mohamed A. Hag., “Detection of Hydrologic trends and variability,” Journal of Hydrology , vol. 255, pp.107-122, 2002.
• Mc Bean and Motiee, “Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources. A long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America,” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 12, pp. 239–255, 2008.
• Karmeshu N., “Trend Detection in Annual Temperature and Precipitation using the Mann Kendall Test – A Case Study to Assess Climate Change on Select States in the Northeastern United States,” M.S. thesis University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 2012
• Şen, Z., “Innovative trend analysis methodology,” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol.17. no. 9, pp.1042-1046, 2012.
• Ay M. ve Kişi Ö., “Kızılırmak Nehrinde Bazı İstasyonlardaki Akımların Trend Analizi,” Teknik Dergi, c.18, s. 137, ss. 7779-7794, 2017.
• Tokgöz S. ve Partal T. “Karadeniz Bölgesinde Yıllık Yağış ve Sıcaklık Verilerinin Yenilikçi Şen ve Mann-Kendall Yöntemleri ile Trend Analizi,”Iğdır Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, c.10, s. 2, ss.1107-1118, 2020.
• Sonali, P., & Kumar, D. N., “Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 476, pp. 212-227, 2013.
• Markus, M., Demissie, M., Short, M. B., Verma, S., & Cooke, R. A., “Sensitivity analysis of annual nitrate loads and the corresponding trends in the lower Illinois River,” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol.19, no.3, pp.533-543, 2013.
• Şen, Z., “Trend identification simulation and application, ”Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol.19. no.3, pp. 635-642, 2014.
• Mishra, A. K., & Coulibaly, P., “Variability in Canadian seasonal streamflow information and its implication for hydrometric network design,” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 19, no.8, 2014.
• Saplıoğlu, K., Kilit, M., & Yavuz, B. K., “Trend analysis of streams in the western Mediterranean basin of Turkey,” Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, vol. 23, no. 1a., 2014.
• Güçlü, Y. S., “Multiple Şen-innovative trend analyses and partial Mann-Kendall test,” Journal of Hydrology, vol.566, pp. 685-704, 2018.
• Alashan S., “An Improved Version of Innovative Trend Analyses,” Arabian Journal of Geosciences, vol. 11, pp. 1-6, 2018.
• lre.usace.army.mil (2019, May 11) [Online] Available: https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/great.
• Hirsch, R.M, J.R. Slack, and R.A. Smith., “Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data,” Water Resour. Res., vol. 18, pp. 107-121, 1982.
• Bayazıt, M., Cığızoğlu, H. K. ve Önöz, B., “Türkiye Akarsularında Trend Analizi, ”Türkiye Mühendislik Haberleri, s. 422, ss. 8-10, 2002.
• Yu Y.S., Zou, S. ve Whittemore, D., “Non parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas,” Journal of Hydrology, vol.150, pp. 61-80, 1993
• Hirsch, R. M., Slack, J. R. ve Smith, R. A., “Techniques of Trend Analysis for Monthly Water Quality Data,” Water Resources Research, vol.18, pp. 107-121, 1982.
• Burn, D.H. and Elnur, M.A.H., “Detection of Hydrological Trends and Variability,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 255, pp.107-122, 2002.
• Bayazıt M, Önöz B, “Trend Analizi,” IV Ulusal Hidroloji Kongresi, Hidrolojide Yeni Yöntemler Seminer Kitabı, İstanbul, ss. 79-84, 2004.
• Wikipedia.org (2021, May 14). Canada Map-Great Lakes and Provinces Diagram, [Online]. Available: https://hif.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Lakes#/media/file:Great_Lakes_1.PNG
• Lenters, J. D., “Long-term trends in the seasonal cycle of Great Lakes water levels,” Journal of Great Lakes Research, vol 27, pp. 342-353, 2001.