Kriz Alanlarında Sığınakları Değerlendirmek için CBS’ye Dayalı Bir Risk Değerlendirme Yaklaşımı: İdlib/Suriye’de Uygulama

Öz

Suriye’deki kriz 15 Mart 2011’de başladığından beri milyonlarca insan ülkeden kaçmıştır ve çok sayıda birey yerlerini değiştirmiştir. Özellikle ülke içinde göç etmek zorunda kalmış insanlar sığınak ve barınma açısından zorluklarla karşılaşmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, bölgeden gerçek veriyi kullanarak, kriz alanlarında insani yardım kapsamında sığınakları seçmenin risk değerlendirmesi için yeni bir yaklaşım önermektir. Çalışmaya; kriz alanlarında risk değerlendirmesi yürütme, Delphi tekniği ile riskleri/kriterleri belirleme, Aralık Tip-2 Bulanık Analitik Hiyerarşi Prosesi (IT2F-AHP) kullanarak riskleri önceliklendirme ve son olarak düşük risk değerlerine sahip sığınakları seçme dâhil edilmiştir. Bu amaçla, Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemi’ni (CBS) kullanarak her risk/kriter için risk haritaları oluşturulmuştur ve çalışma bölgesindeki her alanın son risk değerini bulmak için, Bulanık AHP’den elde edilen ağırlıklardan faydalanarak ve bu risk haritaları örtüştürülerek tek bir nihai risk haritasına dönüştürülmüştür. Son olarak, afet ve kriz zamanlarındaki barınma çözümlerini kolaylaştırabileceği ve hızlandırabileceğinden dolayı, karar vericinin düşük risk değerli sığınakları göz önünde bulundurmasını sağlamak için, sığınakların nihai risk değerleri bulunmuş ve sığınaklar sıralanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Suriye Krizi
• Risk Değerlendirme
• Delphi Tekniği
• Sığınak
• Aralık Tip-2 Bulanık Analitik Hiyerarşi Prosesi
• Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemi (CBS)
• Suriye Krizi, Risk Değerlendirme, Delphi Tekniği, Sığınak, Aralık Tip-2 Bulanık Analitik Hiyerarşi Prosesi, Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemi (CBS)

A GIS-Based Risk Assessment Approach for Evaluating Shelters in Crisis Areas: Case of Idleb/Syria

Abstract

Millions of people escaped the country, and numerous individuals were displaced since the crisis in Syria started on March 15, 2011. Particularly, internally displaced persons confront troubles in the sense of shelter and housing requirements. The aim of this paper is to propose a new approach for risk assessment in selecting shelters at humanitarian context in crisis areas by employing real data from the region. We included conducting risk assessment in crisis areas, identifying the risks/criteria using the Delphi technique, prioritizing risks using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IT2F-AHP), and finally selecting the shelters with lower risk values. For this purpose, we created risk maps for each individual risk/criterion by employing the Geographic Information System (GIS) and merged the risks’ maps into a single final risk map by overlaying them utilizing the weights produced from F-AHP to discover the complete risk value for each area in the study region. Lastly, we extracted and ranked the final risk values for the shelters to enable the decision maker to consider the lower-risk value shelters, as it can aid in expediting and facilitating the housing solutions at times of disasters and crisis.

Keywords

• Syria Crisis
• Risk Assessment
• Delphi Technique
• Shelter
• IT2F-AHP (Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process)
• Geographic Information System (GIS)
• Syria Crisis, Risk Assessment, Delphi Technique, Shelter, IT2F-AHP (Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process), Geographic Information System (GIS)

Kaynakça

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