SIQRV Model and Numerical Application

Öz

There is a pandemic situation caused by the COVID-19 epidemic almost all over the world. Despite the measures taken to prevent this epidemic and the vaccine studies developed, the course of the epidemic changes day by day as the virus mutates and changes its structure. The common opinion of the experts is that the most important weapon in the fight against the epidemic is the vaccine. In this paper, a new SIQRV model was obtained by adding a class of individuals who have been vaccinated to the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantine-recovered) model. In the newly created SIQRV model, the total population is divided into five sections. Numerical results were obtained through Euler method and graphs were drawn by mathematical analysis class of the susceptible individual (S) , the class of the infected individual (I), the class of the in quarantine (Q), the class of the recovered (R) and the class of the vaccinated individuals (V).

Anahtar Kelimeler

• SIQRV Model
• Pandemic
• Euler Method
• Quarantine
• Vaccination.

SIQRV Modeli ve Nümerik Uygulaması

Öz

Hemen hemen tüm dünya genelinde COVID-19 salgının neden olduğu bir pandemik durum söz konusudur. Bu salgının önlenmesi için alınan önlemler ve geliştirilen aşı çalışmalarına rağmen virüsün mutasyona uğrayarak yapısının değişmesiyle birlikte salgının seyri her geçen gün değişim göstermektedir. Uzmanların ortak kanaatleri ise salgınla mücadelenin en önemli silahın aşı olduğu yönündedir. Bu çalışmada SIQR (Hassas-Enfekte-Karantina-İyileşmiş) salgın hastalık modeline aşılanmış bireyler sınıfı eklenerek yeni bir SIQRV modeli elde edildi. Yeni oluşturulan SIQRV modelinde toplam nüfus beş bölüme ayrılmıştır. Duyarlı birey sınıfı (S), enfektif birey sınıfı (I), karantinada olan birey sınıfı (Q), iyileşmiş bireylerin sınıfı (R) ve aşılanmış bireylerin sınıfı (V) ile ilgili matematiksel analizler yapılarak nümerik sonuçlar Euler methodu yardımı ile elde edildi ve grafikler çizildi.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• SIQRV Modeli
• Pandemi
• Euler Methodu
• Karantina
• Aşılama.

Kaynakça

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