Simulating Heavy Precipitation with HARMONIE, HIRLAM and WRF-ARW: A Flash Flood Case Study in İstanbul, Turkey

Yıl 2018, , 1 - 12, 31.08.2018

Hüseyin Toros , Abdullah Kahraman , Seyda Tilev-tanriover Gertie Geertsema Gerard Cats

https://doi.org/10.31590/ejosat.417535

Cited By: 9

Öz

A big amount of precipitation was recorded in a
few hours over different places in northwest Turkey. The synoptic situation
covers a couple of days in a typical convective situation in autumn over the
Mediterranean. The paper discusses the ability of three different NWP models
(HARMONIE, High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) and WRF) to forecast a
heavy precipitation event that occurred on 8–9 September 2009. The
precipitation forecast for each model is compared against rainfall observations
from 28 meteorological stations in the region. This event was a destructive
flood, and for that reason, it is important to study in depth the skill of
different NWP models in such hazardous cases. Flash flood is a hydro meteorological
phenomenon, and its forecast is a very difficult task, especially in very
populated areas. Flash floods depend on several factors; the outstanding one,
of course, is the amount of precipitation, but also the rate of precipitation,
topography, etc. All models are performed on domains centred on the Thracian
region (north-western Turkey). All three models forecast heavy rainfall in the
area; however, the locations of the most intense rainfall are off by several
tens of kilometres. The models forecast good signals of heavy precipitation,
but locations of the forecasted maxima are shifted with respect to the observed
locations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rainfall, natural hazards, forecasting, modelling

Teşekkür

The authors are grateful to KNMI and ECMWF for financial support and supercomputing facilities, Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) for precipitation data and the radar, as well as satellite images (courtesy of EUMETSAT), as well as the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Center of Disaster Coordination (AKOM) for precipitation data.

İstanbul’da 8-9 Eylül 2009’da Meydana Gelen Aşırı Yağışın HARMONIE, HIRLAM ve WRF-ARW ile Simülasyonu

Öz

Türkiye'nin kuzeybatısında farklı yerlere birkaç
saat içinde büyük miktarda yağış meydana gelmiştir. Sinoptik duruma
bakıldığında Akdeniz üzerinde bir kaç günlük tipik bir sonbahar konvektif durum
görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, 8–9 Eylül 2009 tarihlerinde meydana gelen aşırı
yağışın üç farklı sayısal hava modeli (HARMONIE, Yüksek Çözünürlük Sınırlı Alan
Modeli (HIRLAM) ve WRF) kullanarak tahmin yeteneklerini değerllendirmektedir. Her
bir model yağış tahminleri bölgedeki 28 yağış gözlemleriyle
karşılaştırılmıştır. Sel felaketine sebep olan bu tehlikeli durumu farklı sayısal
hava tahmin modelleri ile derinlemesine incelemek önemlidir. Hidrometeorolojik
olay olan aşırı yağış ve ani selin tahmini özellikle çok kalabalık bölgelerde
çok zordur. Ani seller yağış süre ve miktarı, topografya yer yürüzü kullanımı
gibi çeşitli faktörlere bağlıdır. Tüm modeller İstanbul batısı baz alınarak
çalıştırılmıştır. Her üç modelde bölgede yoğun yağış tahmin etmektedir, ancak,
en yoğun yağış alanlarının yerleri onlarca kilometer uzaklıktadır. Modeller,
aşırı yağışların sinyallerini iyi tahmin etmektedir, ancak maksimumların
konumları, gözlenen yerlere göre farklıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yağış, doğal felaketler, tahmin, modelleme

Kaynakça

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