Peaks Over Threshold Method Application on Airborne Particulate Matter (PM10) and Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Pollution Detection in Specified Regions of İstanbul

Öz

In this study, we investigate the application of peak over threshold (POT)  method on extreme events which usually appears with low frequently but high effects. Daily averages of PM₁₀ and SO₂ pollutants are measured at 5 permanent monitoring stations in İstanbul (Beşiktaş, Yenibosna, Alibeyköy, Esenler, Aksaray). The SO₂ and PM₁₀ concentration dataare obtained from İstanbul Municipality through a period from January 2009 to December 2015.Daily averages of theconcentrations are analyzed by using peaks over threshold methods of extreme value theory and then predicted for the largest concentrations for the following 12 months. We find thatPOT methods can provide useful information about the occurrence of limit exceedances of air pollution in Istanbul and these models can easily be used to make short term predictions about limit exceedances.As a consequence, we can say that predicting the air pollutant levels of SO₂ and PM₁₀ will be beneficial for the decision makers which help them to develop advanced policies to control and prevent the air pollution.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Extreme value theory

Peaks Over Threshold Method Application on Airborne Particulate Matter (PM10) and Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Pollution Detection in Specified Regions of İstanbul

Öz

In this study, we investigate the application of peak over threshold (POT)  method on extreme events which usually appears with low frequently but high effects. Daily averages of PM₁₀ and SO₂ pollutants are measured at 5 permanent monitoring stations in İstanbul (Beşiktaş, Yenibosna, Alibeyköy, Esenler, Aksaray). The SO₂ and PM₁₀ concentration dataare obtained from İstanbul Municipality through a period from January 2009 to December 2015. Daily averages of theconcentrations are analyzed by using peaks over threshold methods of extreme value theory and then predicted for the largest concentrations for the following 12 months. We find thatPOT methods can provide useful information about the occurrence of limit exceedances of air pollution in Istanbul and these models can easily be used to make short term predictions about limit exceedances.As a consequence, we can say that predicting the air pollutant levels of SO₂ and PM₁₀ will be beneficial for the decision makers which help them to develop advanced policies to control and prevent the air pollution.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• POT,extreme Value Theory,İstanbul air quality,PM10

Kaynakça

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