Yukarı Fırat Havzasının Uzun Dönem Akım Eğilimlerinin Analizi

Yıl 2019, Sayı: 15, 118 - 131, 31.03.2019

Doğan Yıldız Dursun Yıldız Mehmet Şamil Güneş

https://doi.org/10.31590/ejosat.500548

Cited By: 3

Öz

Fırat Nehri  Havzası sistemi, Türkiye, Suriye, Irak'taki
su, gıda, enerji güvenliği ve olumsuz iklim değişikliği etkisinden dolayı
hayati öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de bulunan Üst Fırat Havzası'nda
sıcaklık ve yağış ile birlikte uzun dönemli akarsu akışında doğal olarak
değişen eğilime odaklanmaktadır. Havzada, inşası devam etmekte olan büyük
barajlarla birlikte, havza çapında kapsamlı bir hidrolojik model oluşturmanın
karmaşıklığı nedeniyle, uzun vadeli akış eğilimlerini tahmin etmek amacıyla,
regresyon ve zaman serileri analizlerinde akım verisini kullandık. Yıllık doğal
akışın esas olarak, baraj inşalarından değilde, doğal faktörlerden dolayı
azaldığı sonucuna vardık. Çalışma alanında elde edilen uzun süreli yağış ve
hava sıcaklığı eğilimleri, elde edilen akış şiddeti trendlerini
desteklemektedir. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar, havzaya komşu olan
ülkeler arasındaki sınır ötesi su yönetimi konusundaki işbirlikçi yaklaşımın
acil bir ihtiyaç olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ortadoğu suları, Su araştırmaları, Akım Tahmini, Sınırıaşan sular, Çok değişkenli istatistikler

Analysis of long-term natural streamflow trends in Upper Euphrates River Basin

Öz

The Euphrates River Basin system
is of vital importance for water, food, energy security in Turkey, Syria, Iraq
and under adverse climate change impact. It is therefore this paper mainly
focuses on the naturally changing trend in long term streamflow with
temperature and precipitation on the Upper Euphrates Basin that lies in Turkey.
Because of the complexity of the setting up a basin-wide comprehensive  hydrological model  in the basin which have several large dams
under operation ,we  mainly used “run off
data” in the statistical regression and time series analyses to predict the
long term streamflow trends. We conclude that the annual natural flow has
decreased mainly due to natural factors not because of construction dams.
Obtained long term precipitation and air temperature trends in study area
support the obtained streamflow trends. Results obtained from this study
indicate that collaborative approach on transboundary water management between
riparian’s is an urgent need.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Middle East water, Water researches, Flow prediction, Transboundary waters, Multivariate Statistics

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