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Interactive effects of urbanization and climate change during the last decades (A case study: Isfahan city)

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 7, 74 - 81, 03.06.2016

Öz

Researchers are investigating to find a possible relation of climate change with anthropogenic behavior by studying trends in different climatic parameters. Nowadays, Isfahan city is experiencing growth of its urban areas by high rate of rural–urban migration and population boom during the last decades. So in this study, by emphasized on descriptive and interpretive approaches various data have been used for detection the effects of anthropogenic behaviors such as; urbanism and land cover change along with global warming conditions. The results of analyzing the satellite images over study area during the three last decades show that the percentage of agriculture and undeveloped areas had respectively decreased from 46.85% to 25.5% and 41.87% to 39.65% in favor of the extension of urban area. In this field, population growth trend in Isfahan province within last years (1990 to 2013) shows the increasing growth rate in cities lather than rural areas. Also, there is a significant positive trend at the 0.05 level in the annual temperature at Isfahan station during the observation period (1980-2010) about a rate of 0.06 °C per year. In other hand, there is a significant positive trend at the 0.05 level between the heart and respiratory moralities and occurrences of warm temperatures about 0.62 and 0.55 respectively in Isfahan. Since, these issues are combine to trend of global warming in coming decades, should be more considerate the all aspects of urbanism growth and its probable risk to public health in the mitigation and adaptation programs. Therefore, the results of this study can be useful for planners to make more informed strategic decisions.

Teşekkür

The authors would like to thank the climate data providers from Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) and Thanks also to the climatology department of University of Sistan and Baluchestan (USB) and meteorology department of Istanbul Technical University (ITU) in the field of scientific collaborations. It is worth nothing that the study is a part of PhD thesis of Mohsen Abbasnia.

Kaynakça

  • Abbasnia, M., Toros, H. 2016. Future changes in maximum temperature using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) at selected stations of Iran. Journal of Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 2 (68), 1-7, DOI: 10.1007/s40808-016-0112-z.
  • Abbasnia, M., Tavousi, T., Khosravi, M. 2016. Assessment of future changes in the maximum temperature at selected stations in Iran based on HADCM3 and CGCM3 models. Asia Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. (Accepted)
  • Alavi, N. 2012. Thesis for degree of Master of Science in Geography, Land use and land cover change detection in Isfahan. Department of Geography, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada, 1-135.
  • BihamtaToosi, N., Fakheran, S., Soffianian, A. 2012. Analysis of Landscape Pattern Changes in Isfahan City during the Last Two Decades. International Conference on Applied Life Sciences (ICALS2012), Turkey, September 10-12, 2012, 149-153.
  • Confalonieri, U., Menne, B., Akhtar, R., Ebi, K. L., Hauengue, M., Kovats, R. S., Revich, B., Woodward, A. J. 2007. Human health. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and NewYork, 391-431 pp.
  • Cheung, S. L. K., Robine, J. M., Van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C., Herrmann, F. 2007. The 2003 Heat wave in Europe, a review of the literature. Montpellier, The 2003 Heat Wave Project; EU Community Action Programme for Public Health, Grant Agreement 2005114.
  • Foley, J. A., DeFries, R., Asner, G. P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S., Chapin, F. S., Coe, M., Daily, G., Gibbs, H., Helkowski, J., Holloway, T., Howard, E., Kucharik, C., Monfreda, C., Patz, J., Prentice, I., Ramankutty, N., Snyder, P. 2005. Global consequences of land use. Science 309, 570–574.
  • Ghanbari, Y., Barghi, H., Ghias, M., Rozbehani, R., Hajaryan, A., Mohammadi, M., Dehdashti, N. S. 2011. The relationship between geographical distribution of death and climate in the province of Isfahan. Journal of Isfahan Medical School 29(160), 1449-1463.
  • Grimm, N., Faeth, S., Golubiewski, N., Redman, C., Wu, J., Bai, X., Briggs, J. 2008. Global change and the ecology of cities. Science 31, 756–760.
  • Griffiths, P., Hoster, P., Grubner, O., Linden, S. 2009. Mapping megacity growth with multi sensor data. Remote sensing of Environment 114: 426-439.
  • Habete, D., Ferreira, C. 2016. Impact of Forecasted Land Use Change on Design Peak Discharge at Watershed and Catchment Scales: Simple Equation to Predict Changes. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 10. 1061(ASCE) HE. 1943-5584. 0001384, 04016019.
  • IPCC. 2013. Climate Change: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment, Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York USA, 1550 pp.
  • Islamic Republic Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). 2012. http://www.weather.ir/farsi/statistics/TMAX.pdf.
  • Isfahan Provincial Government Portal. 2016.http://www.ostan-es.ir.
  • Isfahan Province Portal. 2007. http://www.isfahanportal.ir/framework.jsp?SID=2345.
  • Karaca, M., Tayanç, M., Toros, H. 1995. Effects of urbanization on climate of Istanbul and Ankara. Atmospheric Environment 29(23), 3411-3421.
  • Kendall, M. G. 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. 4thedn, Griffin: London, 202 pp.
  • Kunst, A. E., Looman, C. W., Mackenbach, J. P. 1993. Outdoor air temperature and mortality in The Netherlands: a time-series analysis. American Journal of Epidemiology 137(3), 331-341.
  • Man, H. B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13, 245-259.
  • Miller, R. B., Small, C. 2003. Cities from space: potential applications of remote sensing in urban environment research and policy. Environment and Science and Policy 6, 129-137.
  • National Statistical Yearbook. 2010. http://www.amar.org.ir.
  • Neumann, D. W., Rajagopalan, B., Zagona, E. A. 2003. Regression model for daily maximum stream temperature. Journal of Environmental Engineering, 129(7), 667-674.
  • O’Meara, M. 1999. Reinventing Cities for People and the Planet. (Worldwatch Institute paper 147) Worldwatch, Washington D.C.
  • Salmi, T., Määttä, A., Anttila, P., RuohoAirola, T., Ammell, T. 2002. Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates – the Excel template application MAKESENS. Publications of Air Quality No. 31, Report code FMI-AQ-31, http://www.fmi.fi/kuvat/MAKESENS_MANUAL.pdf.
  • Tayanc, M., Toros, H. 1997. Urbanization effects on regional climate change in the case of four large cities of Turkey. Climatic Change 35(4), 501-524.
  • Toros, H. 2012. Spatio‐temporal precipitation change assessments over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 32(9), 1310-1325.
  • United Nations. 2007. United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Distribution, Urbanization, Internal, Migration and Development. Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat, New York, 21-23 January 2008.
  • Vinnikov, K. Y., Robock, A. 2002. Trends in moments of climatic indices. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(2), 141-144.
  • World Bank. 2011. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Room MC2-812, Washington, D.C. 20433 USA, http//: www.worldbank.org or data.worldbank.org.
  • Zanobettia, A., O’Neill, M. S., Gronlund, C. J., Schwartz, J. D. 2012. Summer temperature variability and long term survival among elderly people with chronic disease. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2012; 1097:6608-6613.

Interactive effects of urbanization and climate change during the last decades (A case study: Isfahan city)

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 7, 74 - 81, 03.06.2016

Öz

Researchers are investigating a possible relation of climate change with anthropogenic behavior by studying trends in different climatic parameters. Nowadays, Isfahan city is experiencing growth of its urban areas due to a high rate of rural–urban migration and a population boom during the last decades. So in this study, various data base by emphasizing descriptive and interpretive approaches have been used for detecting the effects of anthropogenic behaviors such as urbanism and land cover change along with global warming conditions. The results of analyzing satellite images over study area shows that the percentage of agriculture and undeveloped areas had respectively decreased from 46.85% to 25.5% and 41.87% to 39.65% in favor of the extension of urban areas during the last three decades. In this field, population growth trends in Isfahan province within past years (1990 to 2013) shows increasing growth rate in cities rather than rural areas. Also, there is a positive trend at the 0.05 significance level in annual temperature by a rate of 0.06 °C per year at Isfahan station during the observation period (1980-2010). On the other hand, heart and respiratory moralities with warm temperatures trend at Isfahan city shows a positive correlation about 0.62 and 0.55 at the 0.05 significance level, respectively. Since these issues are directly related to global warming in coming decades, there should be more consideration towards all aspects of urban growth and its probable risk to public health in the mitigation and adaptation programs. Therefore, the results of this study can be useful for planners to make more informed strategic decisions.

Kaynakça

  • Abbasnia, M., Toros, H. 2016. Future changes in maximum temperature using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) at selected stations of Iran. Journal of Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 2 (68), 1-7, DOI: 10.1007/s40808-016-0112-z.
  • Abbasnia, M., Tavousi, T., Khosravi, M. 2016. Assessment of future changes in the maximum temperature at selected stations in Iran based on HADCM3 and CGCM3 models. Asia Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. (Accepted)
  • Alavi, N. 2012. Thesis for degree of Master of Science in Geography, Land use and land cover change detection in Isfahan. Department of Geography, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada, 1-135.
  • BihamtaToosi, N., Fakheran, S., Soffianian, A. 2012. Analysis of Landscape Pattern Changes in Isfahan City during the Last Two Decades. International Conference on Applied Life Sciences (ICALS2012), Turkey, September 10-12, 2012, 149-153.
  • Confalonieri, U., Menne, B., Akhtar, R., Ebi, K. L., Hauengue, M., Kovats, R. S., Revich, B., Woodward, A. J. 2007. Human health. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and NewYork, 391-431 pp.
  • Cheung, S. L. K., Robine, J. M., Van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C., Herrmann, F. 2007. The 2003 Heat wave in Europe, a review of the literature. Montpellier, The 2003 Heat Wave Project; EU Community Action Programme for Public Health, Grant Agreement 2005114.
  • Foley, J. A., DeFries, R., Asner, G. P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S., Chapin, F. S., Coe, M., Daily, G., Gibbs, H., Helkowski, J., Holloway, T., Howard, E., Kucharik, C., Monfreda, C., Patz, J., Prentice, I., Ramankutty, N., Snyder, P. 2005. Global consequences of land use. Science 309, 570–574.
  • Ghanbari, Y., Barghi, H., Ghias, M., Rozbehani, R., Hajaryan, A., Mohammadi, M., Dehdashti, N. S. 2011. The relationship between geographical distribution of death and climate in the province of Isfahan. Journal of Isfahan Medical School 29(160), 1449-1463.
  • Grimm, N., Faeth, S., Golubiewski, N., Redman, C., Wu, J., Bai, X., Briggs, J. 2008. Global change and the ecology of cities. Science 31, 756–760.
  • Griffiths, P., Hoster, P., Grubner, O., Linden, S. 2009. Mapping megacity growth with multi sensor data. Remote sensing of Environment 114: 426-439.
  • Habete, D., Ferreira, C. 2016. Impact of Forecasted Land Use Change on Design Peak Discharge at Watershed and Catchment Scales: Simple Equation to Predict Changes. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 10. 1061(ASCE) HE. 1943-5584. 0001384, 04016019.
  • IPCC. 2013. Climate Change: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment, Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York USA, 1550 pp.
  • Islamic Republic Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). 2012. http://www.weather.ir/farsi/statistics/TMAX.pdf.
  • Isfahan Provincial Government Portal. 2016.http://www.ostan-es.ir.
  • Isfahan Province Portal. 2007. http://www.isfahanportal.ir/framework.jsp?SID=2345.
  • Karaca, M., Tayanç, M., Toros, H. 1995. Effects of urbanization on climate of Istanbul and Ankara. Atmospheric Environment 29(23), 3411-3421.
  • Kendall, M. G. 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. 4thedn, Griffin: London, 202 pp.
  • Kunst, A. E., Looman, C. W., Mackenbach, J. P. 1993. Outdoor air temperature and mortality in The Netherlands: a time-series analysis. American Journal of Epidemiology 137(3), 331-341.
  • Man, H. B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13, 245-259.
  • Miller, R. B., Small, C. 2003. Cities from space: potential applications of remote sensing in urban environment research and policy. Environment and Science and Policy 6, 129-137.
  • National Statistical Yearbook. 2010. http://www.amar.org.ir.
  • Neumann, D. W., Rajagopalan, B., Zagona, E. A. 2003. Regression model for daily maximum stream temperature. Journal of Environmental Engineering, 129(7), 667-674.
  • O’Meara, M. 1999. Reinventing Cities for People and the Planet. (Worldwatch Institute paper 147) Worldwatch, Washington D.C.
  • Salmi, T., Määttä, A., Anttila, P., RuohoAirola, T., Ammell, T. 2002. Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates – the Excel template application MAKESENS. Publications of Air Quality No. 31, Report code FMI-AQ-31, http://www.fmi.fi/kuvat/MAKESENS_MANUAL.pdf.
  • Tayanc, M., Toros, H. 1997. Urbanization effects on regional climate change in the case of four large cities of Turkey. Climatic Change 35(4), 501-524.
  • Toros, H. 2012. Spatio‐temporal precipitation change assessments over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 32(9), 1310-1325.
  • United Nations. 2007. United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Distribution, Urbanization, Internal, Migration and Development. Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat, New York, 21-23 January 2008.
  • Vinnikov, K. Y., Robock, A. 2002. Trends in moments of climatic indices. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(2), 141-144.
  • World Bank. 2011. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Room MC2-812, Washington, D.C. 20433 USA, http//: www.worldbank.org or data.worldbank.org.
  • Zanobettia, A., O’Neill, M. S., Gronlund, C. J., Schwartz, J. D. 2012. Summer temperature variability and long term survival among elderly people with chronic disease. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2012; 1097:6608-6613.
Toplam 30 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Mühendislik
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Mohsen Abbasnia Bu kişi benim

Taghi Tavousi Bu kişi benim

Mahmood Khosravi Bu kişi benim

Hüseyin Toros Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 3 Haziran 2016
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2016 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 7

Kaynak Göster

APA Abbasnia, M., Tavousi, T., Khosravi, M., Toros, H. (2016). Interactive effects of urbanization and climate change during the last decades (A case study: Isfahan city). Avrupa Bilim Ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 4(7), 74-81.