Carbon Leakage Concept after Carbon Pricing & Green Deal Policies

Öz

As part of the European Green Deal, EU nations are required to decrease their carbon emissions by 55% by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2050. The EU's emissions trading system is the cornerstone of this goal. In theory, rising carbon prices may cause carbon leakage, or the transfer of economic activity and related emissions from high-carbon economies to low-carbon economies. Losing market share to rivals in international rivalry might result in short-term international carbon leakage. In the long term, it can be accomplished by moving domestic businesses abroad. To date, a variety of tools, including offsets and free allowances granted under the ETS, have been used to support the carbon leakage risk of high-risk industries. This paper develops an international technique, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Phase IV consultation, to produce a sector-level risk assessment of carbon leakage in Türkiye. This methodology combines emissions intensity and trading intensity, two important indicators for assessing carbon leakage risk. Although the former is commonly employed as a measure of a company's exposure to carbon costs, the latter indicates its ability to pass on costs to customers without losing market share. According to the carbon risk study carried out in Türkiye for the aluminium, cement, paper, fertilizer, iron-steel, and ceramics sectors, cement has the highest risk, while paper carries the lowest risk. For Türkiye, it is important to consider the risk of carbon leakage, in particular emission intensity and trade intensity, in order to accelerate and facilitate low-carbon development.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• European Green Deal
• CBAM
• Carbon Leakage
• Carbon Pricing
• ETS
• EU ETS

Karbon Fiyatlandırmasından Sonra Karbon Sızıntısı Kavramı & Yeşil Anlaşma Politikaları

Öz

Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakat kapsamında, AB ülkeleri karbon emisyonlarını 2030 yılına kadar %55 oranında azaltmaları ve 2050 yılına kadar karbon nötrlüğüne ulaşmaları gerekmektedir. AB'nin emisyon ticaret sistemi bu hedefin temel taşıdır. Teorik olarak, artan karbon fiyatları karbon kaçağına veya ekonomik faaliyetlerin ve ilgili emisyonların yüksek karbonlu ekonomilerden düşük karbonlu ekonomilere aktarılmasına neden olabilir. Uluslararası rekabette pazar payının rakiplere kaptırılması, kısa vadede uluslararası karbon kaçağına neden olabilir. Uzun vadede ise bu durum yerli işletmelerin yurtdışına taşınmasıyla gerçekleşebilir. Bugüne kadar, yüksek riskli endüstrilerin karbon kaçağı riskini desteklemek için denkleştirmeler ve ETS kapsamında verilen ücretsiz tahsisatlar da dahil olmak üzere çeşitli araçlar kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de karbon kaçağına ilişkin sektör düzeyinde bir risk değerlendirmesi oluşturmak için uluslararası bir teknik olan AB Emisyon Ticareti Programı (ETS) Faz IV istişaresini geliştirmektedir. Bu metodoloji, karbon kaçağı riskini değerlendirmek için iki önemli gösterge olan emisyon yoğunluğu ve ticaret yoğunluğunu birleştirmektedir. Bunlardan ilki genellikle bir şirketin karbon maliyetlerine maruz kalmasının bir ölçüsü olarak kullanılırken, ikincisi şirketin pazar payını kaybetmeden maliyetleri müşterilere aktarma kabiliyetini göstermektedir. Türkiye'de alüminyum, çimento, kağıt, gübre, demir-çelik ve seramik sektörleri için yapılan karbon kaçağı riski çalışmasına göre, çimento en yüksek riske sahipken, kağıt en düşük riski taşımaktadır. Türkiye için karbon kaçağı riski, özellikle emisyon yoğunluğu ve ticaret yoğunluğu göz önünde bulundurularak hareket edilmelidir, böylece düşük karbonlu kalkınmaya ulaşmak daha hızlı ve kolay olacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• European Green Deal
• CBAM
• Carbon Leakage
• Carbon Pricing
• ETS
• EU ETS

Kaynakça

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