Mali Disiplini Sağlamada Mali Kurallar: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama

Öz

Mali kurallar, mali disiplini sağlamak amacıyla kamu maliyesinin özet göstergeleri olarak kabul edilen harcama, borç, gelir ve bütçe açıkları üzerine getirilen sayısal kısıtlamalardan oluşmaktadır. Mali kurallar 1970’li yıllardan sonra, artan kamu borçları ve bütçe açıklarını kontrol etmek amacıyla tartışılmaya başlanmış ve 1990’lı yıllardan itibaren hızla yayılmıştır. Bu çalışmada mali kuralların mali disiplini sağlamadaki rolü incelenmiştir. Çalışma ulusal ölçekte sayısal mali kural uygulayan 31 gelişmiş ülke ile 35 gelişmekte olan ülkeyi kapsamaktadır. Çalışma dönemi 1985-2015 olarak belirlenmiştir. Analiz için dengesiz panel veri yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre mali kurallar gelişmiş ülkelerde mali disiplini olumlu yönde etkilemektedir. Gelişmiş ülkelerin mali yapıları ve kapsamlı kurumsal düzenlemeleri mali kuralların pozitif etkisini artırmaktadır. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ise bu etki zayıf ya da negatiftir.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

• mali kural,mali disiplin,maliye politikası

Fiscal Rules in Providing Fiscal Discipline: An Econometric Practice for Developed and Developing Countries

Abstract

Fiscal rules consist of numerical constraints on expenditure, debt, income and budget deficits which are considered as summary indicators of public finance in order to ensure fiscal discipline. Fiscal rules began to be discussed after 1970s in order to control rising public debts and budget deficits and spread rapidly since the 1990s. In this study, the role of fiscal rules in ensuring fiscal discipline is examined. The study covers 31 developed countries and 35 developing countries applying numerical fiscal rules at national scale. The study period was determined as 1985-2015. Unbalanced panel data method was used for analysis. According to the results of the study, fiscal rules positively affect fiscal discipline in developed countries. The financial structures and comprehensive institutional arrangements of developed countries increase the positive effect of fiscal rules. In developing countries, this effect is weak or negative.

Keywords

• Fiscal Discipline,Fiscal Rule,Fiscal Policy.

Kaynakça

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